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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Patient delay and associated factors among tuberculosis patients in Gamo zone public health facilities, Southern Ethiopia: An institution-based cross-sectional study

PLoS One. 2021 Jul 30;16(7):e0255327. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255327. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Delayed tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment increase morbidity, mortality, expenditure, and transmission in the community. Early diagnosis and initiation of treatment are essential for effective TB control. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to assess the magnitude and factors associated with patient delay among tuberculosis patients in Gamo Zone, Southern Ethiopia.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Gamo Zone, Southern Ethiopia from February to April 2019. Fifteen health facilities of the study area were selected randomly and 255 TB patients who were ≥18 years of age were included. Data were collected using a questionnaire through face-to-face interviews and analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Patient delay was analyzed using the median as the cut-off value. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was fitted to identify factors associated with patient delay. A p-value of ≤ 0.05 with 95% CI was considered to declare a statistically significant association.

RESULTS: The median (inter-quartile range) of the patient delay was 30 (15-60) days. About 56.9% of patients had prolonged patients’ delay. Patient whose first contact were informal provider (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29, 3.86), presenting with weight loss (AOR: 2.53; 95%CI: 1.35, 4.74) and fatigue (AOR: 2.38; 95%CI: 1.36, 4.17) and body mass index (BMI) categories of underweight (AOR: 1.74; 95%CI: 1.01, 3.00) were independently associated with increased odds of patient delay. However, having good knowledge about TB (AOR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.76) significantly reduce patients’ delay.

CONCLUSION: In this study, a significant proportion of patients experienced more than the acceptable level for the patient delay. Knowledge about TB, the first action to illness, presenting symptoms, and BMI status were identified factors associated with patient delay. Hence, raising public awareness, regular training, and re-training of private and public healthcare providers, involving informal providers, and maintenance of a high index of suspicion for tuberculosis in the vulnerable population could reduce long delays in the management of TB.

PMID:34329333 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0255327

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis

PLoS One. 2021 Jul 30;16(7):e0253043. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253043. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Studies published over the last decade have reached contrasting conclusions regarding the impact of climate change on conflict among the Classic Maya (ca. 250-900 CE). Some researchers have argued that rainfall declines exacerbated conflict in this civilisation. However, other researchers have found that the relevant climate variable was increasing summer temperatures and not decreasing rainfall. The goal of the study reported here was to test between these two hypotheses. To do so, we collated annually-resolved conflict and climate data, and then subjected them to a recently developed Bayesian method for analysing count-based times-series. The results indicated that increasing summer temperature exacerbated conflict while annual rainfall variation had no effect. This finding not only has important implications for our understanding of conflict in the Maya region during the Classic Period. It also contributes to the ongoing discussion about the likely impact of contemporary climate change on conflict levels. Specifically, when our finding is placed alongside the results of other studies that have examined temperature and conflict over the long term, it is clear that the impact of climate change on conflict is context dependent.

PMID:34329320 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0253043

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Body shape matters: Evidence from machine learning on body shape-income relationship

PLoS One. 2021 Jul 30;16(7):e0254785. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254785. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

The association between physical appearance and income has been of central interest in social science. However, most previous studies often measured physical appearance using classical proxies from subjective opinions based on surveys. In this study, we use novel data, called CAESAR, which contains three-dimensional (3D) whole-body scans to mitigate possible reporting and measurement errors. We demonstrate the existence of significant nonclassical reporting errors in the reported heights and weights by comparing them with measured counterparts, and show that these discrete measurements are too sparse to provide a complete description of the body shape. Instead, we use a graphical autoencoder to obtain intrinsic features, consisting of human body shapes directly from 3D scans and estimate the relationship between body shapes and family income. We also take into account a possible issue of endogenous body shapes using proxy variables and control functions. The estimation results reveal a statistically significant relationship between physical appearance and family income and that these associations differ across genders. This supports the hypothesis on the physical attractiveness premium in labor market outcomes and its heterogeneity across genders.

PMID:34329322 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0254785

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Sociodemographic characteristics of missing data in digital phenotyping

Sci Rep. 2021 Jul 29;11(1):15408. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-94516-7.

ABSTRACT

The ubiquity of smartphones, with their increasingly sophisticated array of sensors, presents an unprecedented opportunity for researchers to collect longitudinal, diverse, temporally-dense data about human behavior while minimizing participant burden. Researchers increasingly make use of smartphones for “digital phenotyping,” the collection and analysis of raw phone sensor and log data to study the lived experiences of subjects in their natural environments using their own devices. While digital phenotyping has shown promise in fields such as psychiatry and neuroscience, there are fundamental gaps in our knowledge about data collection and non-collection (i.e., missing data) in smartphone-based digital phenotyping. In this meta-study using individual-level data from six different studies, we examined accelerometer and GPS sensor data of 211 participants, amounting to 29,500 person-days of observation, using Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial regression with study- and user-level random intercepts. Sensitivity analyses including alternative model specification and stratified models were conducted. We found that iOS users had lower GPS non-collection than Android users. For GPS data, rates of non-collection did not differ by race/ethnicity, education, age, or gender. For accelerometer data, Black participants had higher rates of non-collection, but rates did not differ by sex, education, or age. For both sensors, non-collection increased by 0.5% to 0.9% per week. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using smartphone-based digital phenotyping across diverse populations, for extended periods of time, and within diverse cohorts. As smartphones become increasingly embedded in everyday life, the insights of this study will help guide the design, planning, and analysis of digital phenotyping studies.

PMID:34326370 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-94516-7

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Designing a multi-epitope vaccine candidate to combat MERS-CoV by employing an immunoinformatics approach

Sci Rep. 2021 Jul 29;11(1):15431. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-92176-1.

ABSTRACT

Currently, no approved vaccine is available against the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which causes severe respiratory disease. The spike glycoprotein is typically considered a suitable target for MERS-CoV vaccine candidates. A computational strategy can be used to design an antigenic vaccine against a pathogen. Therefore, we used immunoinformatics and computational approaches to design a multi-epitope vaccine that targets the spike glycoprotein of MERS-CoV. After using numerous immunoinformatics tools and applying several immune filters, a poly-epitope vaccine was constructed comprising cytotoxic T-cell lymphocyte (CTL)-, helper T-cell lymphocyte (HTL)-, and interferon-gamma (IFN-γ)-inducing epitopes. In addition, various physicochemical, allergenic, and antigenic profiles were evaluated to confirm the immunogenicity and safety of the vaccine. Molecular interactions, binding affinities, and the thermodynamic stability of the vaccine were examined through molecular docking and dynamic simulation approaches, during which we identified a stable and strong interaction with Toll-like receptors (TLRs). In silico immune simulations were performed to assess the immune-response triggering capabilities of the vaccine. This computational analysis suggested that the proposed vaccine candidate would be structurally stable and capable of generating an effective immune response to combat viral infections; however, experimental evaluations remain necessary to verify the exact safety and immunogenicity profile of this vaccine.

PMID:34326355 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-92176-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The beneficial effects of menopausal hormone therapy on renal survival in postmenopausal Korean women from a nationwide health survey

Sci Rep. 2021 Jul 29;11(1):15418. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93847-9.

ABSTRACT

Several studies have demonstrated the nephroprotective effects of estrogen on renal damage. In light of the inconsistent results of previous findings, this study aims to evaluate the in-depth role of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) on the development of end stage renal disease (ESRD). 3,109,506 Korean adult women who had undergone a medical examination in 2009 (index year) were initially identified for inclusion in this study. We excluded subjects had not experienced menopause naturally, had data missing for at least one variable, and were diagnosed with ESRD within 1 year from the index year. MHT data was obtained from self-reporting questionnaires and the primary outcome was the development of ESRD from the index year until December 31, 2018. A final total of 1,460,311 subjects were included in this study. The participants were divided into four groups according to the duration of MHT; no history of MHT, MHT < 2 years, 2 ≤ MHT < 5 years, MHT ≥ 5 years. During the 9-year study period, a total of 4905 participants developed ESRD. The participants who had a history of MHT use were found to have a 30% reduced risk of developing ESRD. Results from the subgroup analyses were similar to that of the primary study. The findings in this study demonstrate the beneficial effects of MHT on the development of ESRD in postmenopausal women. Based on results, our study may offer suggestions for further studies to investigate the therapeutic options on kidney disease.

PMID:34326358 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-93847-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Efficacy and safety of strong opioids for chronic non-cancer pain and chronic low back pain: a systematic review and meta-analyses

Pain. 2021 Jul 28. doi: 10.1097/j.pain.0000000000002423. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

In recent years, long-term prescribing and use of strong opioids for chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) has increased in high-income countries. Yet existing uncertainties, controversies and differing recommendations make the rationale for prolonged opioid use in CNCP unclear. This systematic review and meta-analyses (MAs) compared the efficacy, safety and tolerability of strong opioids with placebo/non-opioid therapy in CNCP, with a special focus on chronic low back pain (CLBP). Systematic literature searches were performed in four electronic databases (Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Library and CINAHL) in July 2019 and updated by regular alerts until December 2020. We included 16 placebo-controlled RCTs for CLBP and five studies (2 RCTs and 3 non-randomized studies) of opioids vs non-opioids for CNCP in the quantitative and qualitative synthesis. Random effects pairwise MAs were performed for efficacy, safety and tolerability outcomes and subgroup analyses for treatment duration, study design, and opioid experience status. Very low- to low-certainty findings suggest that 4-15 weeks (short-/intermediate term) opioid therapy in CLBP (compared to placebo) may cause clinically relevant reductions in pain but also more gastrointestinal and nervous system adverse events (AEs), with likely no effect on disability. In contrast, long-term opioid therapy (≥ 6 months) in CNCP may not be superior to non-opioids in improving pain or disability/pain-related function, but seems to be associated with more AEs, opioid abuse/dependence, and possibly an increase in all-cause mortality. Our findings also underline the importance and need for well-designed trials assessing long-term efficacy and safety of opioids for CNCP and CLBP.

PMID:34326292 | DOI:10.1097/j.pain.0000000000002423

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Associations of opioid prescription dose and discontinuation with risk of substance-related morbidity in long-term opioid therapy

Pain. 2021 Jul 28. doi: 10.1097/j.pain.0000000000002415. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Efforts to reduce opioid-related harms have decreased opioid prescription but have provoked concerns about unintended consequences, particularly for long-term opioid therapy (LtOT) recipients. Research is needed to address the knowledge gap regarding how risk of substance-related morbidity changes across LtOT and its discontinuation. The present study used nationwide commercial insurance claims data and a within-individual design to examine associations of LtOT dose and discontinuation with substance-related morbidity. We identified 194 839 adolescents and adults who initiated opioid prescription in 2010-2018 and subsequently received LtOT. The cohort was followed for a median of 965 days (interquartile range, 525-1550), of which a median of 176 days (119-332) were covered by opioid prescription. During follow-up, there were 17 582 acute substance-related morbidity events, defined as claims for emergency visits, inpatient hospitalizations, and ambulance transportation with substance use disorder or overdose diagnoses. Relative to initial treatment, risk was greater within individual during subsequent periods of >60-120 (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12-1.49) and >120 (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.24-1.76) daily morphine milligram equivalents. Risk was also greater during days 1-30 after discontinuations than during initial treatment (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05-1.35). However, it was no greater than during the 30 days before discontinuations, indicating that the risk may not be wholly attributable to discontinuation itself. Results were supported by a negative control pharmacotherapy analysis and additional sensitivity analyses. They suggest that LtOT recipients may experience increased substance-related morbidity risk during treatment subsequent to initial opioid prescription, particularly in periods involving higher doses.

PMID:34326295 | DOI:10.1097/j.pain.0000000000002415

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Rotation suppresses giant-scale solar convection

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Aug 3;118(31):e2022518118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2022518118.

ABSTRACT

The observational absence of giant convection cells near the Sun’s outer surface is a long-standing conundrum for solar modelers. We herein propose an explanation. Rotation strongly influences the internal dynamics, leading to suppressed convective velocities, enhanced thermal-transport efficiency, and (most significantly) relatively smaller dominant length scales. We specifically predict a characteristic convection length scale of roughly 30-Mm throughout much of the convection zone, implying weak flow amplitudes at 100- to 200-Mm giant cells scales, representative of the total envelope depth. Our reasoning is such that Coriolis forces primarily balance pressure gradients (geostrophy). Background vortex stretching balances baroclinic torques. Both together balance nonlinear advection. Turbulent fluxes convey the excess part of the solar luminosity that radiative diffusion cannot. We show that these four relations determine estimates for the dominant length scales and dynamical amplitudes strictly in terms of known physical quantities. We predict that the dynamical Rossby number for convection is less than unity below the near-surface shear layer, indicating rotational constraint.

PMID:34326248 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2022518118

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Dedifferentiated Liposarcoma: A Comprehensive Historical Review With Proposed Evidence-based Guidelines Regarding a Diagnosis in Need of Further Clarification

Adv Anat Pathol. 2021 Jul 29. doi: 10.1097/PAP.0000000000000314. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Among all sarcoma types, liposarcoma is the most common sarcoma that develops “dedifferentiation.” Since its initial description by Dr Harry Evans, the spectrum of what is now acceptably included under the rubric of “dedifferentiated liposarcoma” (DL) has expanded, sometimes supported by cytogenetic and molecular advances. Similarly, the range of morphologic appearances considered to represent the precursor of DL, atypical lipomatous tumor (ALT)/well-differentiated liposarcoma, also has broadened, not uncommonly creating variants with significant, almost indistinguishable, morphologic overlap with occasional forms of DL, especially problematic in small biopsy specimens. More specifically, the precise criteria separating cellular forms of ALT from what some consider “low-grade” variants of DL remains controversial and inconsistently applied, even among individual pathologists within institutions. For this separation, the only objective and reproducible criteria historically shown to accurately predict a statistically significant difference in prognosis and survival is mitotic rate, alone or incorporated into a histologic grade [eg, Fédération Nationale des Centres de Lutte Contre le Cancer (FNCLCC)], consistently identifying a higher grade neoplasm capable of metastases. While DL may have a better prognosis than other nonmyoid adult pleomorphic soft tissue sarcomas, definitive conclusions are difficult to establish due to nonuniform criteria for staging and establishing tumor size/volume of the high-grade component, compounded by variable definitions and thresholds for rendering the diagnosis of DL. If appropriate therapeutic approaches are to be applied to DL, there needs to uniform agreement regarding the histologic definition, grading, and staging of DL. Herein, is a comprehensive historical perspective on DL and ALT/well-differentiated liposarcoma, seeking to provide insights, updates, and a proposal for uniform, evidence-based guidelines.

PMID:34326285 | DOI:10.1097/PAP.0000000000000314