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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Spatial Patterns of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in Soil and Their Influencing Factors in a Typical Agro-pastoral Ecotone

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2021 Jun 8;42(6):3010-3017. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202008312.

ABSTRACT

Soil nitrogen and phosphorus influence physical, chemical, and biological processes in soil, therefore, clarifying their contents and spatial patterns is of great significance for soil resource management and utilization. The spatial patterns of soil total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) and the influencing factors in Jungar Banner were studied using classical statistical and geostatistical methods. The results showed that soil TN and TP contents decreased with soil depth, and the weighted mean values of TN and TP were 0.29 g·kg-1 and 0.26 g·kg-1, respectively. The nugget effect values of soil TN and TP were concentrated in the ranges 0.15-0.43 and 0.34-0.53, respectively, indicating that soil TN (except in the 0-10 cm and 80-100 cm zones) and TP were moderately spatially dependent, dominated by structural and random factors. The spatial distributions of soil nutrients were related to soil layers and elements, even in same layer, while the distributions of TN and TP were not consistent. Soil total nitrogen was mainly affected by soil organic carbon, while TP was mainly affected by latitude, altitude, vegetation, and soil texture.

PMID:34032101 | DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202008312

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Economic and utilization outcomes of medication management at a large Medicaid plan with disease management pharmacists using a novel artificial intelligence platform from 2018 to 2019: a retrospective observational study using regression methods

J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2021 May 25:1-11. doi: 10.18553/jmcp.2021.21036. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Medication therapy management (MTM) and comprehensive medication management (CMM) have been practiced by clinical pharmacists as a predominantly manual activity with interventions documented in a record-keeping system. Program evaluations, largely based on estimations of projected savings and utilization reductions, have not accurately predicted actual claims and utilization changes, leading many to doubt the efficacy of medication management. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact on actual medical claims of a novel artificial intelligence (AI) platform that identifies members and provides decision support to clinicians in performing telephonic interventions similar to MTM and CMM with high-risk Medicaid members. METHODS: This retrospective observational study used mixed-effects regression models that flexibly account for general trends in cost, as measured by actual claims, to identify the amount of savings and associated impact. To study the economics, total cost of care (TCoC), defined as all medication costs plus all noncapitated medical costs, was evaluated. Utilization was evaluated through the number of emergency department (ED) visits, hospital admissions, bed days, and readmissions. The study included 2,150 predominantly middle-aged (aged 40-64 years) Medicaid members with an average of 10 medications for chronic conditions among an average of 25 total medications. The analysis considered cost and utilization data from August 2017 through April 2019. Interventions occurred between January 2018 and February 2019. RESULTS: Statistically significant correlations were found between receiving interventions and decreased costs and utilization. The economic study found a 19.3% reduction in the TCoC (P < 0.001) that, applied to a preintervention monthly cost of $2,872, yielded a savings of $554 per member per month (PMPM). Medication costs showed a 17.4% reduction (P < 0.001), which, when applied to preintervention cost of $1,110, yielded a savings of $192 PMPM. The utilization study found a 15.1% reduction in ED visits (P = 0.002), a 9.4% reduction in hospital admissions (P = 0.008), and a 10.2% reduction in bed days (P = 0.01). Return on investment is 12.4:1 based on TCoC savings and program costs. CONCLUSIONS: This study evaluated the CMM-Wrap program, which used an advanced AI platform integrated with health plan data, clinical pharmacists trained in disease management, telephonic patient engagement, and closed-loop provider coordination. The results correlate cost and utilization savings with the program. The TCoC savings of $554 PMPM translates to approximately $1.2M a month and more than $14M annually for the 2,150 members in the study. We believe Medicaid and Medicare payment of AI enhanced telephonic CMM services would substantially decrease government health care expenditures, whereas improving health program expansion to Medicaid members with similar risks could save the Health Plan $109M annually. For instance, we estimate that California’s Medicaid (Medi-Cal) program could save more than $1B annually by applying the program’s observed impact to a similar high-risk cohort (about 1.6%) of Medi-Cal members. Additionally, benefits will accrue to nonmanaged health plans based on the savings themselves. DISCLOSURES: There was no external funding for this study. The program itself was funded by Inland Empire Health Plan. The retrospective study was a collaboration of the 3 partners (Surveyor Health, Inland Empire Health Plan, and Preveon Health) each of which funded its additional costs of preparing the study. Kessler, Mebine, E. Von Schweber, and L. Von Schweber are employed by Surveyor Health. McConnell and Jai are employed by Inland Empire Health Plan. Nguyen, Kiroyan, and Ho are employed by Preveon Health. Desai reports fees from Surveyor Health for work on this study. E. Von Schweber and L. Von Schweber have 2 patents licensed to Surveyor Health: Unified Evaluation, Presentation and Modification of Healthcare Regimens Method and Apparatus for Information Surveying.

PMID:34032130 | DOI:10.18553/jmcp.2021.21036

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Coronary Heart Disease Risk Associated with Primary Isolated Hypertriglyceridemia; a Population-Based Study

J Am Heart Assoc. 2021 May 25:e019343. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.120.019343. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Background Hypertriglyceridemia is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease but the association is often attributed to concomitant metabolic abnormalities. We investigated the epidemiology of primary isolated hypertriglyceridemia (PIH) and associated cardiovascular risk in a population-based setting. Methods and Results We identified adults with at least one triglyceride level ≥500 mg/dL between 1998 and 2015 in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We also identified age- and sex-matched controls with triglyceride levels <150 mg/dL. There were 3329 individuals with elevated triglyceride levels; after excluding those with concomitant hypercholesterolemia, a secondary cause of high triglycerides, age <18 years or an incomplete record, 517 patients (49.4±14.0 years, 72.0% men) had PIH (triglyceride 627.6±183.6 mg/dL). The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of PIH in adults was 0.80% (0.72-0.87); the diagnosis was recorded in 60%, 46% were on a lipid-lowering medication for primary prevention and a triglyceride level <150 mg/dL was achieved in 24.1%. The association of PIH with coronary heart disease was attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for demographic, socioeconomic, and conventional cardiovascular risk factors (hazard ratio [HR], 1.53; 95% CI, 1.06-2.20; P= 0.022). There was no statistically significant association between PIH and cerebrovascular disease (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.65-1.73, P= 0.813), peripheral artery disease (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.43-3.75; P= 0.668), or the composite end point of all 3 (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.92-1.80; P=0.148) in adjusted models. Conclusions PIH was associated with incident coronary heart disease events (although there was attenuation after adjustment for conventional risk factors), supporting a causal role for triglycerides in coronary heart disease. The condition is relatively prevalent but awareness and control are low.

PMID:34032140 | DOI:10.1161/JAHA.120.019343

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Intra-articular injection of compound betamethasone and hyaluronic acid for the treatment of moderate-severe knee osteoarthritis:a randomized controlled trial

Zhongguo Gu Shang. 2021 May 25;34(5):424-8. doi: 10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.2021.05.006.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To compare clinical effects of compound betamethasone and compound betamethasone with hyaluronic acid in treating moderate-severe knee osteoarthritis (KOA).

METHODS: A prospective randomized controlled study was conducted in 116 patients with unilateral moderate-severe KOA patients from February 2017 to November 2017 and divided into observation group and control group, 58 patients in each group. In observation group, there were 15 males and 43 females aged from 45 to 80 years old with an average of (66.45±6.31) years old;according to Kellgren-Lawrence(K-L) classification, 42 patients were type Ⅲ and 16 patients were type Ⅳ;the courses of disease ranged from 4 to 8 years with an average of (5.25±2.21) years;the patients were treated by injecting 1 ml compound betamethasone into knee joint. In control group, there were 13 males and 45 females aged from 45 to 80 years old with an average of (64.89±6.41) years old;according to K-L classification, 43 patients were type Ⅲ and 15 patients were type Ⅳ;the courses of disease ranged from 4 to 10 years with an average of (5.41±2.35) years;the patients were treated by knee joint injection of 4 ml hyaluronic acid and 1 ml compound betamethasone. Visual analog scale (VAS), Western Ontario and McMaster University Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) were used to evaluate clinical effects before treatment and 1 week, 1, month, 3 and 6 months after treatment.

RESULTS: Totally 55 patients in observation group were followed up for 6 months, and 3 patients were quit at 3 months after treatment for poor efficacy. Totally 56 patients in control group were followed up for 6 months, and 2 patients were withdrew from the follow-up on the first and third month respectively for poor efficacy. There were no statistical difference in VAS and WOMAC between two groups before treatment and different time points after treatment (P>0.05), and no significant difference in VAS and WOMAC before treatment and 6 months after treatment between two groups(P>0.05).

CONCLUSION: For patients with moderate-severe KOA, there is no significant difference in therapeutic effect between compound betamethasone injection and compound betamethasone combined with hyaluronic acid injection, and long-term effect of two methods is not good.

PMID:34032043 | DOI:10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.2021.05.006

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Meta-analysis of external fixator and open reduction and internal fixation for the treatment of distal radius fracture

Zhongguo Gu Shang. 2021 May 25;34(5):429-37. doi: 10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.2021.05.007.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To compare clinical efficacy and safety of plate internal fixation (ORIF) and external fixator (EF) in treating distal radius fractures by Meta-analysis.

METHODS: From establishment of database to August, 2019, randomized controlled trial (RCT) about open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) and external fixation (EF) in treating distal radius fractures was conducted by using computer-based databases, including CNKI, VIP, Wanfang Data, Medline, Cochrane library databases. Data extraction and quality evaluation of included study according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, RevMan 5.3 software was used to perform Meta-analysis. Palm angle, ulnar deflection angle, radius height, grip strength, ulnar variation, disabilities of arm, shoulder and hand (DASH) score, total complication rate, infection rate and tendon rupture between two groups were compared.

RESULTS: Totally 19 RCT were included with 1 730 patients, 873 patients in ORIF group and 857 patients in EF group. Meta analysis result showed that after operation at 12 months, there were no significant difference in radial height [MD=0.04, 95%CI (-0.90, 0.99), P=0.93], tendon rupture [RR=1.82, 95%CI (0.71, 4.67), P=0.21], carpal tunnel syndrome [RR=2.15, 95%CI(0.98, 4.70), P=0.06], complex regional pain syndrom [RR=0.63, 95%CI(0.31, 1.27)P=0.78] between two groups. While there were significant difference in palm inclination angle [MD=1.38, 95%CI (0.83, 1.93), P< 0.000 01], ulnar deflection angle[MD=0.99, 95%CI(0.54, 1.45), P<0.000 1], ulna variability[MD=0.66, 95%CI(0.21, 1.12), P=0.005], DASH score[MD=2.42, 95%CI(0.37, 4.46), P=0.02], incidence of complications[RR=0.83, 95%CI(0.71, 0.96), P=0.01], infection rate[RR=0.20, 95%CI(0.11, 0.36), P<0.000 1]between two groups. There was statistical difference in tendinitis incidence between two groups [MD=3.88, 95%CI (1.56, 9.64), P<0.003].

CONCLUSION: Compared with EF in treating distal radius fracture, ORIF has better clinical effects in postoperative complications, palm angle, ulnar deviation angle, ulnar variation rate and infection rate. While there were no significant difference between in DASH score, radial height, tendon rupture and carpal tunnel syndrome better EF and ORIF. For the patient pursue rapid recovery of function, ORIF is better choice.

PMID:34032044 | DOI:10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.2021.05.007

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Biomechanical study on different high-strength sutures and suture site for repairing posterior root tear of the medial meniscus

Zhongguo Gu Shang. 2021 May 25;34(5):442-7. doi: 10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.2021.05.009.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To compare biomechanical characteristic of different high-strength sutures and suture sites for repairing posterior root tear of the medial meniscus with modified Mason-Allen technique.

METHODS: Forty-eight specimen of medial meniscus of knee joint from fresh porcine (female, aged from 5 to 9 months with an average of 7 months) were chosen and established experimental model. The samples were divided into red zone fixation group and red-white zone fixation group according to suture sites, 24 in each group; and then were randomly divided into 3 subgroups which 8 in each group, and fixed with Ethibond suture, Ultrabraid suture and FiberWire suture, respectively. Biomechanical tests were performedon universal electromagnetic and mechanical testing machine. Each specimen was underwent 1 000 cyclic tests on the first time, then pull out test until failure. The maximum failure load, yield load, stiffness and displacement were analyzed.

RESULTS: All specimen were successfully completed biomechanical tests. The failure mode of Ethibond group was caused by suture fracture; 6 cases of Ultrabraid suture group was caused by suture fracture which belong to red zone fixation group, 10 cases were caused by suture pull out, which 2 cases belong to red zone fixation group, 8 cases belong to red-white zone fixation group;8 cases of FiberWire group was caused by suture pull-out. Biomechanical test showed that:(1)In terms of suture strength, comparison of the maximum failure load, yield load and stiffness showed that Ethibond suture group <Ultrabraid suture group <FiberWire suture group, and had statistical differences among groups (P<0.05);comparison of cyclic displacement at 100, 500 and 1 000 cycles showed that Ethibond suturegroup>Ultrabraid suture group >FiberWire suture group, and had statistical differences among groups (P<0.05);the results showed the suture strength in Ethibond was the best, Ultrabraid suture took the second place, and FiberWire suture was the worst. (2)As for different suture sites, comparison of the maximum failure load, yield load and stiffness showed that red zone fixation group >red-white region fixation group, and had statistical difference between two groups(P< 0.05);comparison of cyclic displacement at 100, 500 and 1 000 cycles showed that red zone fixation group <red-white zone fixation group, and had statistical difference between two groups (P<0.05);the results showed that suture strength in red zone fixation group was better than that of red white zone fixation group.

CONCLUSION: Mason-Allen suture could effectively fix posterior root tear of the medial meniscus and meet needs of early partial weight bearing after surgery. Suturing with Fiberwire in red zone is stronger and better for the meniscus healing and rehabilitation.

PMID:34032046 | DOI:10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.2021.05.009

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Reliability of tibial anterior crest as the anatomical reference of rotating alignment for tibial component in total knee arthroplasty

Zhongguo Gu Shang. 2021 May 25;34(5):417-24. doi: 10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.2021.05.005.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to research whether anterior tibial crest is a reliable anatomical reference for rotational alignment of tibial component in TKA.

METHODS: The study included 122 patients who underwent computed tomography angiography (CTA) examination for unilateral lower extremity trauma with normal contralateral lower extremities, including 89 males and 33 females, with an average age of(51.4±16.4) years old(ranged 18 to 81 years old). Picture archiving and communication system (PACS) was used to mark 11 lines including the surgical epicondylar axis (SEA) connecting the most prominent points of the lateral epicondyle and the deepest point of the sulcus on the medial epicondyle of the femur, axis of medial border of patellar tendon (MEPT)connecting the middle of the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) and medial border of the patellar tendon at the level of a standard tibial cut from 8 mm distal of the lateral tibial joint surface, transverse axis of tibia (TAT) at the level of a standard tibial cut from 8 mm distal of the lateral tibial joint surface, Akagi line connecting the projected middle of the PCL and medial border of the patellar tendon at the tibial attachment, the axis of the medial 1/3 of patellar tendon(M1/3) connecting the projected middle of PCL and the medial 1/3 of the patellar tendon at the patellar tendon attachment level, Insall line connecting the projected middle of the PCL and the medial 1/3 of tibial tubercle, the axis of medial border of tibial tubercle (MBTT) connecting the projected middle of the PCL and medial border of tibial tubercle, as well as the axis of the proximal anterior tibial crest (PATC), axis 1 of the middle anterior tibial crest (MATC1), axis 2 of the middle anterior tibial crest (MATC2) and the axis of the distal anterior tibial crest (DATC) which were marked by connecting the 4 equidistant points on the sharp anterior tibial crest and the projected middle of the PCL. The angles between TAT and SEA as well as the angles between other axes and the perpendicular to SEA were measured. Pairwise differences among the 10 tibial axes were examined using One-Way ANOVA and paired t-test.

RESULTS: The angles between the axes of MEPT, Akagi line, M1/3, Insall line, MBTT, PATC, MATC1, MATC2, DATC and the perpendicular to SEA were (-1.6 ±4.5)° , (1.4 ±5.0)° , (10.2±5.1)°, (11.9±5.4)°, (3.6±4.8)°, (12.0±6.9)°, (7.2±8.6)°, (7.1±10.4)°, (6.6±13.5)°, respectively. The angle between TAT and SEA was (4.1±5.3)°. MEPT was external rotation compared to SEA. M1/3, Insall line and PATC were significantly greater than Akagi line, MBTT, TAT (P<0.001). MATC1, MATC2 and DATC were also significantly greater than Akagi line, MBTT axis and TAT (P<0.001). However, MATC1, MATC2 and DATC were also significantly less than M1/3 axis, Insall line and PATC(P<0.01). There were no significant statistical differences between MATC1, MATC2 and DATC(P>0.05).

CONCLUSION: The middle tibial anterior crest can be used as a reference for rotational alignment of tibial component in TKA, and its reliability is better than Insall line, but worse than Akagi line, TAT and MBTT.

PMID:34032042 | DOI:10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.2021.05.005

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Agreement between laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based Framingham risk score in Southern Iran

Sci Rep. 2021 May 24;11(1):10767. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90188-5.

ABSTRACT

The Framingham 10-year cardiovascular disease risk is measured by laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based models. This study aimed to determine the agreement between these two models in a large population in Southern Iran. In this study, the baseline data of 8138 individuals participated in the Pars cohort study were used. The participants had no history of cardiovascular disease or stroke. For the laboratory-based risk model, scores were determined based on age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and treatment status, total cholesterol, and High-Density Lipoprotein. For the non-laboratory-based risk model, scores were determined based on age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, SBP and treatment status, and Body Mass Index. The agreement between these two models was determined by Bland Altman plots for agreement between the scores and kappa statistic for agreement across the risk groups. Bland Altman plots showed that the limits of agreement were reasonable for females < 60 years old (95% CI: -2.27-4.61%), but of concern for those ≥ 60 years old (95% CI: -3.45-9.67%), males < 60 years old (95% CI: -2.05-8.91%), and males ≥ 60 years old (95% CI: -3.01-15.23%). The limits of agreement were wider for males ≥ 60 years old in comparison to other age groups. According to the risk groups, the agreement was better in females than in males, which was moderate for females < 60 years old (kappa = 0.57) and those ≥ 60 years old (kappa = 0.51). The agreement was fair for the males < 60 years old (kappa = 0.39) and slight for those ≥ 60 years old (Kappa = 0.14). The results showed that in overall participants, the agreement between the two risk scores was moderate according to risk grouping. Therefore, our results suggest that the non-laboratory-based risk model can be used in resource-limited settings where individuals cannot afford laboratory tests and extensive laboratories are not available.

PMID:34031448 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-90188-5

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Power determination in vitamin D randomised control trials and characterising factors affecting it through a novel simulation-based tool

Sci Rep. 2021 May 24;11(1):10804. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90019-7.

ABSTRACT

Thousands of observational studies have linked vitamin D deficiency with numerous diseases, but randomised controlled trials (RCTs) often fail to show benefit of supplementation. Population characteristics and trial design have long been suspected to undermine power but were not systematically investigated. We propose a flexible generative model to characterise benefit of vitamin D supplementation at the individual level, and use this to quantify power in RCTs. The model can account for seasonality and population heterogeneity. In a simulated 1-year trial with 1000 participants per arm and assuming a 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) increase of 20 nmol/L due to the intervention, with baseline 25OHD in the population of 15, 35, 50, 60 and 75 nmol/L, the power to detect intervention effect was 77%, 99%, 95%, 68% and 19%, respectively. The number of participants required per arm to achieve 80% power according to baseline 25OHD of 15-60 nmol/L was 1200, 400, 600 and 1400, respectively. As expected, larger increases in 25OHD due to supplementation improved power in certain scenarios. For a population baseline of 50 nmol/L, with 1500 participants in each arm, there was 100% power to detect a 20 nmol/L 25OHD increase while it was 76% for a 10 nmol/L increase. Population characteristics and trial design, including temporal considerations, have a dramatic impact on power and required sample size in vitamin D RCTs.

PMID:34031451 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-90019-7

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Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

Sci Rep. 2021 May 24;11(1):10760. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90118-5.

ABSTRACT

In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

PMID:34031456 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-90118-5