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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluating ChatGPT-4.0’s data analytic proficiency in epidemiological studies: A comparative analysis with SAS, SPSS, and R

J Glob Health. 2024 Mar 29;14:04070. doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04070.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: OpenAI’s Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer 4.0 (ChatGPT-4), an emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-based large language model (LLM), has been receiving increasing attention from the medical research community for its innovative ‘Data Analyst’ feature. We aimed to compare the capabilities of ChatGPT-4 against traditional biostatistical software (i.e. SAS, SPSS, R) in statistically analysing epidemiological research data.

METHODS: We used a data set from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, comprising 9317 participants and 29 variables (e.g. gender, age, educational level, marital status, income, occupation, weekly working hours, survival status). Two researchers independently evaluated the data analysis capabilities of GPT-4’s ‘Data Analyst’ feature against SAS, SPSS, and R across three commonly used epidemiological analysis methods: Descriptive statistics, intergroup analysis, and correlation analysis. We used an internally developed evaluation scale to assess and compare the consistency of results, analytical efficiency of coding or operations, user-friendliness, and overall performance between ChatGPT-4, SAS, SPSS, and R.

RESULTS: In descriptive statistics, ChatGPT-4 showed high consistency of results, greater analytical efficiency of code or operations, and more intuitive user-friendliness compared to SAS, SPSS, and R. In intergroup comparisons and correlational analyses, despite minor discrepancies in statistical outcomes for certain analysis tasks with SAS, SPSS, and R, ChatGPT-4 maintained high analytical efficiency and exceptional user-friendliness. Thus, employing ChatGPT-4 can significantly lower the operational threshold for conducting epidemiological data analysis while maintaining consistency with traditional biostatistical software’s outcome, requiring only specific, clear analysis instructions without any additional operations or code writing.

CONCLUSIONS: We found ChatGPT-4 to be a powerful auxiliary tool for statistical analysis in epidemiological research. However, it showed limitations in result consistency and in applying more advanced statistical methods. Therefore, we advocate for the use of ChatGPT-4 in supporting researchers with intermediate experience in data analysis. With AI technologies like LLMs advancing rapidly, their integration with data analysis platforms promises to lower operational barriers, thereby enabling researchers to dedicate greater focus to the nuanced interpretation of analysis results. This development is likely to significantly advance epidemiological and medical research.

PMID:38547497 | DOI:10.7189/jogh.14.04070

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Role of body mass index and weight change in the risk of cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 66 cohort studies

J Glob Health. 2024 Mar 29;14:04067. doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04067.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to evaluate the effects of body mass index (BMI) and weight change on the risk of developing cancer overall and cancer at different sites.

METHODS: We searched PubMed and other databases up to July 2023 using the keywords related to ‘risk’, ‘cancer’, ‘weight’, ‘overweight’, and ‘obesity’. We identified eligible studies, and the inclusion criteria encompassed cohort studies in English that focused on cancer diagnosis and included BMI or weight change as an exposure factor. Multiple authors performed data extraction and quality assessment, and statistical analyses were carried out using RevMan and R software. We used random- or fixed-effects models to calculate the pooled relative risk (RR) or hazard ratio along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We used the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess study quality.

RESULTS: Analysis included 66 cohort studies. Compared to underweight or normal weight, overweight or obesity was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer, kidney cancer, and liver cancer but a decreased risk of prostate cancer and lung cancer. Being underweight was associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer and lung cancer but not that of postmenopausal breast cancer or female reproductive cancer. In addition, weight loss of more than five kg was protective against overall cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS: Overweight and obesity increase the risk of most cancers, and weight loss of >5 kg reduces overall cancer risk. These findings provide insights for cancer prevention and help to elucidate the mechanisms underlying cancer development.

REGISTRATION: Reviewregistry1786.

PMID:38547495 | DOI:10.7189/jogh.14.04067

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Excess Mortality Calculations to Assess the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Concepts and Methodological Issues

Am J Public Health. 2024 Mar 28:e1-e6. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2024.307572. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

We discuss some intriguing methodological aspects of excess mortality analyses, which have been widely used to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the main ways of presenting excess mortality: as a mortality rate (incidence rate) or as a percentage increase (relative risk or rate ratio). We discuss what should be regarded as the null value of excess mortality (i.e., when countries or regions can be judged as having fared equally well) and when age and sex standardization, adjustment for other determinants of the spread of a pandemic, or both is necessary. We discuss the level of detail by time and place and person that may be necessary. We note that an excess mortality comparison is essentially a difference-in-differences analysis. We conclude that, although one cannot rule out using excess mortality analyses for causal effect estimates, such analyses will remain most fruitful for generating hypotheses about both the efficiency of measures to curtail the pandemic and factors that cannot be influenced. Nevertheless, a judicious use of arguments and counterarguments can then lead to identifying best practices for various situations. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print March 28, 2024:e1-e6. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307572).

PMID:38547492 | DOI:10.2105/AJPH.2024.307572

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Obstetric Racial Disparities in the Era of the ARRIVE (A Randomized Trial of Induction Versus Expectant Management) Trial and the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic

Obstet Gynecol. 2024 Mar 28. doi: 10.1097/AOG.0000000000005564. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of the ARRIVE (A Randomized Trial of Induction Versus Expectant Management) trial and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on racial and ethnic differences in labor induction, pregnancy-associated hypertension, and cesarean delivery among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White low-risk, first-time pregnancies.

METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis of U.S. birth certificate data from maternal non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity, first pregnancy, 39 or more weeks of gestation, with no documented contraindication to vaginal delivery or expectant management beyond 39 weeks. We compared the rate of labor induction (primary outcome), pregnancy-associated hypertension, and cesarean delivery during three time periods: pre-ARRIVE (January 1, 2015-July 31, 2018), post-ARRIVE (November 1, 2018-February 29, 2020), and post-COVID-19 (March 1, 2020-December 31, 2021).

RESULTS: In the post-ARRIVE period, the rate of labor induction increased in both non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black patients, with no statistically significant difference in the magnitude of increase between the two groups (rate ratio for race [RRrace] 0.98, 95% CI, 0.95-1.02, P=.289). Post-COVID-19, the rate of labor induction increased in non-Hispanic White but not non-Hispanic Black patients. The magnitude of the rate change between non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black patients was significant (RRrace 0.95, 95% CI, 0.92-0.99, P=.009). Non-Hispanic Black pregnant people were more likely to have pregnancy-associated hypertension and more often delivered by cesarean at all time periods.

CONCLUSION: Changes in obstetric practice after both the ARRIVE trial and the COVID-19 pandemic were not associated with changes in Black-White racial differences in labor induction, cesarean delivery, and pregnancy-associated hypertension.

PMID:38547489 | DOI:10.1097/AOG.0000000000005564

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Active Compared With Passive Voiding Trials After Midurethral Sling Surgery: A Systematic Review

Obstet Gynecol. 2024 Mar 28. doi: 10.1097/AOG.0000000000005567. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To compare active with passive voiding trials on the rate of passing a trial of void and discharge rates with catheter in women who have undergone midurethral sling for treatment of stress urinary incontinence (SUI).

DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched through February 24, 2023.

METHODS OF STUDY SELECTION: Our population included women undergoing midurethral sling, with or without anterior or posterior repair, for treatment of SUI. Our two primary outcomes were rate of passing voiding trial and rate of discharge with a catheter. Our secondary outcome was the rate of delayed postoperative urinary retention, when a patient initially passes a trial of void but then subsequently presents in retention.

TABULATION, INTEGRATION, AND RESULTS: Abstracts were doubly screened; full-text articles were doubly screened; and accepted articles were doubly extracted. In single-arm studies evaluating either passive or active voiding trial, random-effects meta-analyses of pooled proportions were used to assess outcomes. Of 3,033 abstracts screened, 238 full-text articles were assessed, and 26 met inclusion criteria. Ten studies including 1,370 patients reported active trial of void. Sixteen studies including 3,643 patients reported passive trial of void. We included five randomized controlled trials, five comparative retrospective studies, five prospective single group studies, and 11 retrospective single group studies. Five of the studies included patients with a concomitant anterior or posterior colporrhaphy. On proportional meta-analysis, the active trial of void group was less likely to pass the voiding trial (81.0%, 95% CI, 0.76-0.87% vs 89.0%, 95% CI, 0.84-0.9%3, P=.029) with high heterogeneity (I2=93.0%). Furthermore, there were more discharges with catheter in active trial of void compared with passive trial of void (19.0%, 95% CI, 0.14-0.24% vs 7.0%, 95% CI, 0.05-0.10%, P<.01). The rates of delayed postoperative urinary retention were low and not different between groups (0.6%, 95% CI, 0.00-0.02% vs 0.2%, 95% CI, 0.00-0.01%, P=.366) with low heterogeneity (I2=0%). Sling revisions were statistically lower in the active trial of void group (0.5%, 95% CI, 0.00-0.01% vs 1.5%, 95% CI, 0.01-0.02%, P=.035) with low heterogeneity (I2=10.4%).

CONCLUSION: Passive trial of void had higher passing rates and lower discharge with catheter than active trial of void. Rates of most complications were low and similar between both groups, although passive trial of void had higher sling revisions.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42022341318.

PMID:38547487 | DOI:10.1097/AOG.0000000000005567

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Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer in Egypt: Pathological Characters, Patterns of Care, and Survival Compared to Average-Age Onset Colorectal Cancer: A Retrospective Multicenter Study

JCO Glob Oncol. 2024 Mar;10:e2300372. doi: 10.1200/GO.23.00372.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is a rising health problem. The incidence of EOCRC has increased over the past 2 decades all over the world. Reports from Egypt since the 1990s have reported a higher incidence among young populations with no identifiable risk factors. The aim of this study was to assess EOCRC in Egypt regarding incidence, characteristics, treatment pattern, and survival compared with average age onset and elderly patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective, record-based, cohort study combining data from four different cancer centers in Egypt. We grouped patients according to age into three categories: the EOCRC group for patients age ≤45 years and the average age onset and elderly cancer group (for patients age ≥65 years).

RESULTS: The study included 1,310 patients with histopathologically proven colorectal cancer, representing four different geographical areas in Egypt. Patients with EOCRC represented 42.4% of the study population. Female patients were 50.6% among the EOCRC group and 52.5% among the average age group. Rectal tumors were significantly higher in EOCRC (54.7% v 40.6%; P < .001). There was no significant difference between both groups regarding the tumor stage at presentation, obstruction, or presence of metastases at presentation. Patients with EOCRC had a significantly higher rate of peritoneum/adnexa metastases than the average age ones (12.3% in EOCRC v 6.9% in the average age group; P < .001). No statistically significant differences between EOCRC and average age groups in both disease-free survival and overall survival were reported.

CONCLUSION: A comprehensive framework for the study of EOCRC is required in Egypt as well as a genomic analysis to identify possible underlying genetic alterations responsible for the high incidence of EOCRC.

PMID:38547440 | DOI:10.1200/GO.23.00372

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The bidirectional association between premenstrual disorders and perinatal depression: A nationwide register-based study from Sweden

PLoS Med. 2024 Mar 28;21(3):e1004363. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004363. eCollection 2024 Mar.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Premenstrual disorders (PMDs) and perinatal depression (PND) share symptomology and the timing of symptoms of both conditions coincide with natural hormonal fluctuations, which may indicate a shared etiology. Yet, there is a notable absence of prospective data on the potential bidirectional association between these conditions, which is crucial for guiding clinical management. Using the Swedish nationwide registers with prospectively collected data, we aimed to investigate the bidirectional association between PMDs and PND.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: With 1,803,309 singleton pregnancies of 1,041,419 women recorded in the Swedish Medical Birth Register during 2001 to 2018, we conducted a nested case-control study to examine the risk of PND following PMDs, which is equivalent to a cohort study, and transitioned that design into a matched cohort study with onward follow-up to simulate a prospective study design and examine the risk of PMDs after PND (within the same study population). Incident PND and PMDs were identified through clinical diagnoses or prescribed medications. We randomly selected 10 pregnant women without PND, individually matched to each PND case on maternal age and calendar year using incidence density sampling (N: 84,949: 849,482). We (1) calculated odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of PMDs using conditional logistic regression in the nested case-control study. Demographic factors (country of birth, educational level, region of residency, and cohabitation status) were adjusted for. We (2) calculated the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CIs of PMDs subsequent to PND using stratified Cox regression in the matched cohort study. Smoking, BMI, parity, and history of psychiatric disorders were further controlled for, in addition to demographic factors. Pregnancies from full sisters of PND cases were identified for sibling comparison, which contrasts the risk within each set of full sisters discordant on PND. In the nested case-control study, we identified 2,488 PMDs (2.9%) before pregnancy among women with PND and 5,199 (0.6%) among controls. PMDs were associated with a higher risk of subsequent PND (OR 4.76, 95% CI [4.52,5.01]; p < 0.001). In the matched cohort with a mean follow-up of 7.40 years, we identified 4,227 newly diagnosed PMDs among women with PND (incidence rate (IR) 7.6/1,000 person-years) and 21,326 among controls (IR 3.8). Compared to their matched controls, women with PND were at higher risk of subsequent PMDs (HR 1.81, 95% CI [1.74,1.88]; p < 0.001). The bidirectional association was noted for both prenatal and postnatal depression and was stronger among women without history of psychiatric disorders (p for interaction < 0.001). Sibling comparison showed somewhat attenuated, yet statistically significant, bidirectional associations. The main limitation of this study was that our findings, based on clinical diagnoses recorded in registers, may not generalize well to women with mild PMDs or PND.

CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed a bidirectional association between PMDs and PND. These findings suggest that a history of PMDs can inform PND susceptibility and vice versa and lend support to the shared etiology between both disorders.

PMID:38547436 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004363

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Acute Optic Neuropathy in Older Adults: Differentiating Between MOGAD Optic Neuritis and Nonarteritic Anterior Ischemic Optic Neuropathy

Neurol Neuroimmunol Neuroinflamm. 2024 May;11(3):e200214. doi: 10.1212/NXI.0000000000200214. Epub 2024 Mar 28.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease optic neuritis (MOGAD-ON) and nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) can cause acute optic neuropathy in older adults but have different managements. We aimed to determine differentiating factors between MOGAD-ON and NAION and the frequency of serum MOG-IgG false positivity among patients with NAION.

METHODS: In this international, multicenter, case-control study at tertiary neuro-ophthalmology centers, patients with MOGAD presenting with unilateral optic neuritis as their first attack at age 45 years or older and age-matched and sex-matched patients with NAION were included. Comorbidities, clinical presentations, acute optic disc findings, optical coherence tomography (OCT) findings, and outcomes were compared between MOGAD-ON and NAION. Multivariate analysis was performed to find statistically significant predictors of MOGAD-ON. A separate review of consecutive NAION patients seen at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, from 2018 to 2022, was conducted to estimate the frequency of false-positive MOG-IgG in this population.

RESULTS: Sixty-four patients with unilateral MOGAD-ON were compared with 64 patients with NAION. Among patients with MOGAD-ON, the median age at onset was 56 (interquartile range [IQR] 50-61) years, 70% were female, and 78% were White. Multivariate analysis showed that eye pain was strongly associated with MOGAD-ON (OR 32.905; 95% CI 2.299-473.181), while crowded optic disc (OR 0.033; 95% CI 0.002-0.492) and altitudinal visual field defect (OR 0.028; 95% CI 0.002-0.521) were strongly associated with NAION. On OCT, peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) thickness in unilateral MOGAD-ON was lower than in NAION (median 114 vs 201 μm, p < 0.001; median pRNFL thickening 25 vs 102 μm, p < 0.001). MOGAD-ON had more severe vision loss at nadir (median logMAR 1.0 vs 0.3, p < 0.001), but better recovery (median logMAR 0.1 vs 0.3, p = 0.002). In the cohort of consecutive NAION patients, 66/212 (31%) patients with NAION were tested for MOG-IgG and 8% (95% CI 1%-14%) of those had false-positive serum MOG-IgG at low titers.

DISCUSSION: Acute unilateral optic neuropathy with optic disc edema in older adults can be caused by either MOGAD-ON or NAION. Detailed history, the degree of pRNFL swelling on OCT, and visual outcomes can help differentiate the entities and prevent indiscriminate serum MOG-IgG testing in all patients with acute optic neuropathy.

PMID:38547435 | DOI:10.1212/NXI.0000000000200214

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Pathologic Features of Anti-Ku Myositis

Neurology. 2024 Apr 23;102(8):e209268. doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000209268. Epub 2024 Mar 28.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Characteristics of myositis with anti-Ku antibodies are poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the pathologic features of myositis associated with anti-Ku antibodies, compared with immune-mediated necrotizing myopathy (IMNM) with anti-signal recognition particle (SRP) and anti-3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) antibodies, in muscle biopsy-oriented registration cohorts in Japan and Germany.

METHODS: We performed a retrospective pathology review of patients with anti-Ku myositis samples diagnosed in the Japanese and German cohorts. We evaluated histologic features and performed HLA phenotyping.

RESULTS: Fifty biopsied muscle samples in the Japanese cohort and 10 in the German cohort were obtained. After exclusion of myositis-specific autoantibodies or other autoimmune connective tissue diseases, 26 samples (43%) of anti-Ku antibody-positive myositis were analyzed. All the samples shared some common features with IMNM, whereas they showed expression of MHC class II and clusters of perivascular inflammatory cells more frequently than the anti-SRP/HMGCR IMNM samples (71% vs 7%/16%; p < 0.005/<0.005; 64% vs 0%/0%; p < 0.005/<0.005). Anti-Ku myositis biopsies could be divided into 2 subgroups based on the extent of necrosis and regeneration. The group with more abundant necrosis and regeneration showed a higher frequency of MHC class II expression and perivascular inflammatory cell clusters. HLA phenotyping in the 44 available patients showed possible associations of HLA-DRB1*03:01, HLA-DRB1*11:01, and HLA-DQB1*03:01 (p = 0.0045, 0.019, and 0.027; odds ratio [OR] 50.2, 4.6, and 2.8; 95% CI 2.6-2942.1, 1.1-14.5, and 1.0-7.0) in the group with less conspicuous necrosis and regeneration. On the contrary, in the group of more abundant necrosis and regeneration, the allele frequencies of HLA-A*24:02, HLA-B*52:01, HLA-C*12:02, and HLA-DRB1*15:02 were lower than those of healthy controls (p = 0.0036, 0.027, 0.016, and 0.026; OR = 0.27, 0, 0, and 0; 95% CI 0.1-0.7, 0-0.8, 0-0.8, and 0-0.8). However, these HLA associations did not remain significant after statistical correction for multiple testing.

DISCUSSION: While anti-Ku myositis shows necrotizing myopathy features, they can be distinguished from anti-SRP/HMGCR IMNM by their MHC class II expression and clusters of perivascular inflammatory cells. The HLA analyses suggest that anti-Ku myositis may have different subsets associated with myopathologic subgroups.

PMID:38547417 | DOI:10.1212/WNL.0000000000209268

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Prevalence, characteristics, and outcome of subclinical vasculitis in polymyalgia rheumatica: a retrospective cohort study

Rheumatology (Oxford). 2024 Mar 28:keae208. doi: 10.1093/rheumatology/keae208. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Two recent meta-analyses reported subclinical vasculitis in 22-23% of patients with polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR). We aimed to evaluate the prevalence, characteristics, and outcome of subclinical vasculitis among our PMR patients.

METHODS: Consecutive patients with GCA/PMR spectrum disease with isolated PMR symptoms who underwent FDG PET imaging between 2003-2020 and who were followed for ≥6 months, were included retrospectively. Vasculitis was defined as FDG uptake ≥ grade 2 in any vessel.

RESULTS: We included 337 patients, of whom 31 (9%) with subclinical vasculitis. Among those with subclinical vasculitis, 21 (58%) had isolated large vessel vasculitis, 3 (10%) had isolated cranial vasculitis and 7 (23%) had both cranial and large vessel vasculitis. The glucocorticoid (GC) starting dose and GC doses during follow-up were higher in those with subclinical vasculitis until 12 months after diagnosis (p< 0.001). There was no difference in the duration of GC treatment (25 vs 20 months, p= 0.187). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses showed no difference in the proportion of patients able to stop GC (HR 0.78 [95% CI 0.49-1.25], p= 0.303) and in the proportion of patients with relapse (HR 0.82 [95%CI 0.50-1.36], p= 0.441).

CONCLUSION: Only 9% of our PMR patients had subclinical vasculitis with a predilection for large vessel vasculitis. There were no differences in relapse rate and duration of GC treatment, however those with subclinical vasculitis received higher GC doses until 12 months after diagnosis. Prospective interventional trials are needed to evaluate the outcome of PMR patients with and without subclinical vasculitis treated with similar GC protocol.

PMID:38547403 | DOI:10.1093/rheumatology/keae208