Tag: statistics

PLoS One. 2022 Nov 2;17(11):e0275967. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275967. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

Accurately counting the human cost of the COVID-19 at both the national and regional level is a policy priority. The Russian Federation currently reports one of the higher COVID-19 mortality rates in the world; but estimates of mortality differ significantly. Using a statistical method accounting for changes in the population age structure, we present the first national and regional estimates of excess mortality for 2021; calculations of excess mortality by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2020; and mean remaining years of life expectancy lost at the regional level. We estimate that there were 351,158 excess deaths in 2020 and 678,022 in 2021 in the Russian Federation; and, in 2020, around 2.0 years of life expectancy lost. While the Russian Federation exhibits very high levels of excess mortality compared to other countries, there is a wide degree of regional variation: in 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level range from 27% to 52%. Life expectancy loss is generally greater for males; while excess mortality is greater in urban areas. For Russia as whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived for a further 14 more years (and as high as 18 years in some regions), disproving the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining-especially for females. At a regional level, less densely populated, more remote regions, rural regions appear to have fared better regarding excess mortality and life expectancy loss-however, a part of this differential could be owing to measurement issues. The calculations demonstrate more clearly the true degree of the human cost of the pandemic in the Russian Federation.

PMID:36322565 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0275967

PLoS One. 2022 Nov 2;17(11):e0275397. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275397. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Very few previous studies have involved school students or their parents in the evaluation of virtual learning environment (VLE). Thus, this survey was performed to evaluate the satisfaction of both school students and their parents with the VLE in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey was distributed online for VLE evaluation. The questionnaire was based on previous studies and expert opinions from validated instruments for assessing distance education, integrative and literature reviews of VLE environment. A median value >3 indicated participant satisfaction in each of the 5 domains of the questionnaire as well as overall VLE satisfaction. The used questionnaire was checked after its implementation by all possible statistical means and it was found to be of acceptable validity and reliability.

RESULTS: Six hundred and ninety-three participants including 571 Saudi citizens and 122 non-Saudi residents participated in this survey. The number of school students who agreed or strongly agreed were significantly lower than the number of students who disagreed or strongly disagreed with preferring the VLE over traditional education (p<0.001). The participants evaluated the VLE experience as unsatisfactory with a median value ≤3 for 4 out of 5 questionnaire domains with an overall satisfaction value of 2.8. Among the 117 participants who gave further written opinions/comments, 42(35.9%) participants supported the VLE as an alternative to traditional classrooms, if equipment and internet are made available and for the safety of their children.

CONCLUSIONS: This is one of few available adequate population-based studies for exploring the VLE satisfaction of both Saudi citizens and non-Saudi residents school students and their parents. This study showed the participants’ unsatisfactory VLE experience. The VLE is accepted as an alternative to traditional classrooms to keep up with learning and to maintain the safety of children and it can be a supplementary learning method but many measures are still needed to develop the VLE.

PMID:36322559 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0275397

JMIR Res Protoc. 2022 Nov 2;11(11):e37420. doi: 10.2196/37420.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The incidence of eating disorders (EDs) among adolescents has significantly increased since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hybrid care, which combines web-based and in-person modalities, is a promising approach for adolescents with EDs but remains understudied in this population.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to implement a novel hybrid (web-based and in-person) intensive ambulatory care program for youth and evaluate its feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary effectiveness.

METHODS: We will use a naturalistic pretest-posttest design to evaluate our proposed pilot Intensive Ambulatory Care Program (IACP). This novel type of day hospital care follows evidence-based principles and uses a family-centered, educational, and motivational approach. It will be tailored to the psychological needs of each participant and will be delivered in a hybrid format. A total of 100 participants meeting the DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition) criteria for EDs, aged 12-18 years, will be recruited over the 2-year trial period. We will examine recruitment, retention, and adhesion-to-protocol rates; participant and family satisfaction; and preliminary effectiveness using quantitative self-report questionnaires.

RESULTS: Rolling recruitment will take place from winter 2022 to fall 2023, during which time we expect to recruit approximately 80% (100/120) of eligible participants, retain at least 75% (75/100) of enrolled participants and have at least 70% (70/100) of enrolled participants complete at least one therapeutic session per week and all pre- and postintervention questionnaires. Data collection will occur concurrently. We base our recruitment and retention estimates on previous literature and consider that the highly flexible design of the IACP and the fact that no extra work will be required of individuals in the program to participate in the study, will lead to high levels of feasibility. We anticipate that participants and their families will be satisfied with both the program and hybrid delivery format. We expect that participation in the IACP will be associated with a medium effect size reduction in ED psychopathology from baseline to end of treatment. The data analysis and manuscript writing are expected to be completed by the summer of 2024.

CONCLUSIONS: Given the high clinical burden associated with EDs, this study has the potential to fill an important research gap by testing the implementation of a novel hybrid mode of intervention. If feasible, acceptable, and effective, the IACP could lead to important improvements in health care services for adolescents with EDs.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/37420.

PMID:36322118 | DOI:10.2196/37420

Environ Technol. 2022 Nov 2:1-35. doi: 10.1080/09593330.2022.2143284. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Drones are revolutionizing earth system observations, and are increasingly used for high resolution monitoring of water quality. The objective of this research was to test whether drone-based multispectral imagery could predict important water quality parameters in an ICOLL (intermittently closed and opened lake or lagoon). Three water quality sampling campaigns were undertaken, measuring temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll (CHL), turbidity, total suspended sediments (TSS), coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM), green algae, crytophyta, diatoms, bluegreen algae and total algal concentrations. DistilM statistical analyses were conducted to reveal the bands accounting for the most variation across all water quality data, then linear correlations between specific band/band ratios and individual water quality parameters were performed. DistilM analyses revealed the NIR band accounted for most variation in March, the Green band in April and the RE band in May, and showed that the most important contributors varied significantly among campaigns and variables. Significant linear correlations with R² > 0.4 were obtained for eleven of the water quality parameters tested, with the strongest correlation obtained for CHL and the green band (R² 0.72). The relative importance of predictor bands and observed water quality parameters varied temporally. We conclude that drones with a multispectral sensor can produce useful “snapshot” prediction maps for a range of water quality parameters, such as chlorophyll, bluegreen algae and dissolved oxygen. However, a single model was insufficient to reproduce the temporal variation of water parameters in dynamic estuarine systems.

PMID:36322116 | DOI:10.1080/09593330.2022.2143284

JMIR Med Inform. 2022 Nov 2;10(11):e40878. doi: 10.2196/40878.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In recent years, the progress and generalization surrounding portable ultrasonic probes has made ultrasound (US) a useful tool for physicians when making a diagnosis. With the advent of machine learning and deep learning, the development of a computer-aided diagnostic system for screening renal US abnormalities can assist general practitioners in the early detection of pediatric kidney diseases.

OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we sought to evaluate the diagnostic performance of deep learning techniques to classify kidney images as normal and abnormal.

METHODS: We chose 330 normal and 1269 abnormal pediatric renal US images for establishing a model for artificial intelligence. The abnormal images involved stones, cysts, hyperechogenicity, space-occupying lesions, and hydronephrosis. We performed preprocessing of the original images for subsequent deep learning. We redefined the final connecting layers for classification of the extracted features as abnormal or normal from the ResNet-50 pretrained model. The performances of the model were tested by a validation data set using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity.

RESULTS: The deep learning model, 94 MB parameters in size, based on ResNet-50, was built for classifying normal and abnormal images. The accuracy, (%)/area under curve, of the validated images of stone, cyst, hyperechogenicity, space-occupying lesions, and hydronephrosis were 93.2/0.973, 91.6/0.940, 89.9/0.940, 91.3/0.934, and 94.1/0.996, respectively. The accuracy of normal image classification in the validation data set was 90.1%. Overall accuracy of (%)/area under curve was 92.9/0.959..

CONCLUSIONS: We established a useful, computer-aided model for automatic classification of pediatric renal US images in terms of normal and abnormal categories.

PMID:36322109 | DOI:10.2196/40878

J Med Internet Res. 2022 Nov 2;24(11):e40364. doi: 10.2196/40364.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Chronic diseases are putting huge pressure on health care systems. Nurses are widely recognized as one of the competent health care providers who offer comprehensive care to patients during rehabilitation after hospitalization. In recent years, telerehabilitation has opened a new pathway for nurses to manage chronic diseases at a distance; however, it remains unclear which chronic disease patients benefit the most from this innovative delivery mode.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to summarize current components of community-based, nurse-led telerehabilitation programs using the chronic care model; evaluate the effectiveness of nurse-led telerehabilitation programs compared with traditional face-to-face rehabilitation programs; and compare the effects of telerehabilitation on patients with different chronic diseases.

METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed using 6 databases for articles published from 2015 to 2021. Studies comparing the effectiveness of telehealth rehabilitation with face-to-face rehabilitation for people with hypertension, cardiac diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, cancer, or stroke were included. Quality of life was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included physical indicators, self-care, psychological impacts, and health-resource use. The revised Cochrane risk of bias tool for randomized trials was employed to assess the methodological quality of the included studies. A meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effects model and illustrated with forest plots.

RESULTS: A total of 26 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Telephone follow-ups were the most commonly used telerehabilitation delivery approach. Chronic care model components, such as nurses-patient communication, self-management support, and regular follow-up, were involved in all telerehabilitation programs. Compared with traditional face-to-face rehabilitation groups, statistically significant improvements in quality of life (cardiac diseases: standard mean difference [SMD] 0.45; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.81; P=.01; heterogeneity: X²₁=1.9; I²=48%; P=.16; chronic respiratory diseases: SMD 0.18; 95% CI 0.05 to 0.31; P=.007; heterogeneity: X²₂=1.7; I²=0%; P=.43) and self-care (cardiac diseases: MD 5.49; 95% CI 2.95 to 8.03; P<.001; heterogeneity: X²₅=6.5; I²=23%; P=.26; diabetes: SMD 1.20; 95% CI 0.55 to 1.84; P<.001; heterogeneity: X²₄=46.3; I²=91%; P<.001) were observed in the groups that used telerehabilitation. For patients with any of the 6 targeted chronic diseases, those with hypertension and diabetes experienced significant improvements in their blood pressure (systolic blood pressure: MD 10.48; 95% CI 2.68 to 18.28; P=.008; heterogeneity: X²₁=2.2; I²=54%; P=0.14; diastolic blood pressure: MD 1.52; 95% CI -10.08 to 13.11, P=.80; heterogeneity: X²1=11.5; I²=91%; P<.001), and hemoglobin A1c (MD 0.19; 95% CI -0.19 to 0.57 P=.32; heterogeneity: X²₄=12.4; I²=68%; P=.01) levels. Despite these positive findings, telerehabilitation was found to have no statistically significant effect on improving patients’ anxiety level, depression level, or hospital admission rate.

CONCLUSIONS: This review showed that telerehabilitation programs could be beneficial to patients with chronic disease in the community. However, better designed nurse-led telerehabilitation programs are needed, such as those involving the transfer of nurse-patient clinical data. The heterogeneity between studies was moderate to high. Future research could integrate the chronic care model with telerehabilitation to maximize its benefits for community-dwelling patients with chronic diseases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42022324676; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=324676.

PMID:36322107 | DOI:10.2196/40364

Neuro Oncol. 2022 Nov 2;24(Supplement_6):S4-S15. doi: 10.1093/neuonc/noac133.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Treatment of recurrent glioblastoma (GBM) remains problematic with survival after additional therapy typically less than 12 months. We prospectively evaluated whether outcomes might be improved with resection plus permanent implantation of a novel radiation device utilizing the gamma-emitting isotope Cs-131 embedded within bioresorbable collagen tiles.

METHODS: Recurrent histologic GBM were treated in a single-arm trial. Following radiation, the surgical bed was lined with the tiles. Subsequent treatments were at the treating physician’s discretion.

RESULTS: 28 patients were treated (20 at first recurrence, range 1-3). Median age was 58 years, KPS was 80, female:male ratio was 10:18. Methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) was methylated in 11%, unmethylated in 18%, and unknown in 71%. Post implant, 17 patients (61%) received ≥1 course of systemic therapy. For all patients, Kaplan-Meier estimates of median time to local failure were 12.1 months, post-implant survival was 10.7 months for all patients and 15.1 months for patients who received systemic therapy; for all patients, median overall survival from diagnosis was 25.0 months (range 9.1-143.1). Sex, age, and number of prior progressions were not statistically significant. Local control was continuously maintained in 46% of patients. Two deaths within 30 days occurred, one from intracranial hemorrhage and one after persistent coma. Three symptomatic adverse events occurred: one wound infection requiring surgery and two late radiation brain injury, resolved non-surgically.

CONCLUSION: This pre-commercial trial demonstrated acceptable safety and favorable post-treatment local control and survival. The device has received FDA clearance for use in newly diagnosed malignant and all recurrent intracranial neoplasms.

PMID:36322102 | DOI:10.1093/neuonc/noac133

Stat Methods Med Res. 2022 Nov 2:9622802221125913. doi: 10.1177/09622802221125913. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Risk difference is a frequently-used effect measure for binary outcomes. In a meta-analysis, commonly-used methods to synthesize risk differences include: (1) the two-step methods that estimate study-specific risk differences first, then followed by the univariate common-effect model, fixed-effects model, or random-effects models; and (2) the one-step methods using bivariate random-effects models to estimate the summary risk difference from study-specific risks. These methods are expected to have similar performance when the number of studies is large and the event rate is not rare. However, studies with zero events are common in meta-analyses, and bias may occur with the conventional two-step methods from excluding zero-event studies or using an artificial continuity correction to zero events. In contrast, zero-event studies can be included and modeled by bivariate random-effects models in a single step. This article compares various methods to estimate risk differences in meta-analyses. Specifically, we present two case studies and three simulation studies to compare the performance of conventional two-step methods and bivariate random-effects models in the presence or absence of zero-event studies. In conclusion, we recommend researchers using bivariate random-effects models to estimate risk differences in meta-analyses, particularly in the presence of zero events.

PMID:36322093 | DOI:10.1177/09622802221125913

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Nov 1;5(11):e2239778. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.39778.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: A considerable number of clinical trials of neoadjuvant immunotherapy for patients with resectable esophageal cancer are emerging. However, systematic evaluations of these studies are lacking.

OBJECTIVE: To provide state-of-the-art evidence and normative theoretical support for neoadjuvant immunotherapy for locally advanced resectable esophageal cancer.

DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were searched for relevant original articles and conference proceedings that were published in English through April 1, 2022.

STUDY SELECTION: Published phase 2 or 3 clinical trials that included patients with resectable stage I to IV esophageal cancer who received immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) before surgery as monotherapy or in combination with other therapies.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses and the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines for meta-analysis were followed to extract data. A random-effects model was adopted if the heterogeneity was significant (I2 statistic >50%); otherwise, the common-effects model was used. Data analyses were conducted from April 2 to 8, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Pathological complete response (pCR) rate and major pathological response (MPR) rate were considered to be the primary outcomes calculated for the clinical outcomes of neoadjuvant immunotherapy. Incidence of treatment-related severe adverse events was set as the major measure for the safety outcome. The rate of R0 surgical resection was summarized. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to histologic subtype and ICI types.

RESULTS: A total of 27 clinical trials with 815 patients were included. Pooled rates were 31.4% (95% CI, 27.6%-35.3%) for pCR and 48.9% (95% CI, 42.0-55.9%) for MCR in patients with esophageal cancer. In terms of safety, the pooled incidence of treatment-related severe adverse events was 26.9% (95% CI, 16.7%-38.3%). Most patients achieved R0 surgical resection (98.6%; 95% CI, 97.1%-99.6%). Regarding histologic subtypes, the pooled pCR rates were 32.4% (95% CI, 28.2%-36.8%) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and 25.2% (95% CI, 16.3%-35.1%) in esophageal adenocarcinoma. The pooled MPR rate was 49.4% (95% CI, 42.1%-56.7%) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study found that neoadjuvant immunotherapy with chemotherapy had promising clinical and safety outcomes for patients with resectable esophageal cancer. Randomized clinical trials with long-term follow-up are warranted to validate the findings and benefits of ICIs.

PMID:36322089 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.39778

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Nov 1;5(11):e2239849. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.39849.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: There is a large body of epidemiologic evidence that heat is associated with increased risk of mortality. One of the most effective strategies to mitigate the effects of heat is through air conditioning (AC); Texas regulates the internal temperature of jails to stay between 65 and 85 °F degrees, but these same standards do not apply to state and private prisons.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether heat during warm months is associated with an increased risk of mortality in Texas prisons without AC.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This case-crossover study included individuals who died in Texas prisons between 2001 and 2019. The association of heat in warm months with mortality in Texas prisons with and without AC was estimated. Data analysis was conducted from January to April 2022.

EXPOSURES: Increasing daily heat index above 85 °F and extreme heat days (days above the 90th percentile heat index for the prison location).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Daily mortality in Texas prisons.

RESULTS: There were 2083 and 1381 deaths in prisons without and with AC, respectively, during warm months from 2001 to 2019. Most of the deceased were male (3339 of 3464 [96%]) and the median (IQR) age at death was 54 (45-62) years. A 1-degree increase above 85 °F heat index and an extreme heat day were associated with a 0.7% (95% CI, 0.1%-1.3%) and a 15.1% (95% CI, 1.3%-30.8%) increase in the risk of mortality in prisons without AC, respectively. Approximately 13% of mortality or 271 deaths may be attributable to extreme heat during warm months between 2001 to 2019 in Texas prison facilities without AC. In prisons with AC, a negative percentage change in mortality risk was observed, although the 95% CI crossed zero (percentage change in mortality risk: -0.6%; 95% CI, -1.6% to 0.5%). The estimates in prisons without AC were statistically different than the estimates in prisons with AC (P = .05).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study found an average of 14 deaths per year between 2001 to 2019 were associated with heat in Texas prisons without AC vs no deaths associated with heat in prisons with AC. Adopting an AC policy in Texas prisons may be important for protecting the health of one of our most vulnerable populations.

PMID:36322085 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.39849