Tag: statistics

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Mar 19. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19713-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Carbon emission trading market promotes carbon emission reduction effectively. Accurate carbon price forecasting is crucial for relevant policy makers and investors. However, due to the non-linearity, uncertainty, and complexity of carbon prices, the current predication models fail to predict carbon prices accurately. In this paper, an advanced deep neural network model named TCN-Seq2Seq is proposed to forecast carbon prices. The novelty of the proposed model focuses on the “sequence to sequence” layout to learn temporal data dependencies using only fully convolutional layers. Being provided with parallel training for fewer parameters, TCN-Seq2Seq forecasting model is more suitable for small carbon price dataset in few-shot learning way. Qualitatively and quantitatively, we find that the proposed framework consistently and significantly outperforms traditional statistical forecasting models and state-of-the-art deep learning prediction model with respect to predictive ability and robustness. Particularly, our proposed model achieves forecasting accuracy with the highest DA value (0.9697), the lowest MAPE value (0.0027), and the lowest RMSE value (0.0149), showing superior prediction performance compared with the traditional statistical forecasting models. The accuracy of carbon price forecasting gives insight to policy makers and carbon market investors.

PMID:35306656 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-19713-x

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Mar 19. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19693-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

In this study, in silico modeling was designed to examine the antagonistic effect of mercuric chloride (HgCl₂) and silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) on the mortality rate of zebrafish (Danio rerio) based on response surface methodology (RSM). Adult zebrafish (Danio rerio) with an average weight of 0.75 ± 0.16 g were used in this study. An interaction between HgCl₂ and AgNPs was evaluated using DLS, TEM, and EDX mapping. In addition, RSM was applied to determine and predict the mortality rate of zebrafish induced by HgCl₂ in the presence of non-lethal concentrations of AgNPs and to optimize dependent and independent variables. Following exposure to HgCl₂, in vitro observations showed an increase in the hydrodynamic size of AgNPs and the formation of irregular nanoparticles. EDX mapping analysis also demonstrated the deposition of Hg ions on the surface of AgNPs, indicating the interaction between HgCl₂ and AgNPs (i.e., the amalgamation of Hg and AgNPs). Moreover, in silico and in vivo findings illustrated that the mortality rate of zebrafish increased significantly in a concentration-dependent manner; however, the mortality rate reduced greatly in the presence of AgNPs during 96-h exposure. Statistically significant correlation and regression were also observed for the mortality rate between the actual and predicted values based on the ANOVA results, showing that the proposed model fits well. The most critical conditions of mortality rate were occurred by HgCl₂ concentration of 0.23 mg L^-1 and AgNP concentration of 0.04 mg L^-1 that yielding maximum fish mortality rate of 96.541%. Additionally, the obtained value for model desirability was equal to 1.000 (i.e., the highest possible value). In conclusion, this statistical model could accurately describe the relationship between independent and dependent variables, and consequently boost substantially the experimental design of ecotoxicological studies by reducing the number of model organisms, toxic and chemical substances, time, and budget.

PMID:35306655 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-19693-y

Diabetes Ther. 2022 Mar 20. doi: 10.1007/s13300-022-01240-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) is an important marker for diabetes care management. With the increasing use of new technologies such as continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and point-of-care testing (POCT), patients and their physicians have been able to monitor and continuously check their blood glucose levels in an efficient and timely manner. This study aimed to investigate the level of agreement between the standard laboratory test for HbA1c (Lab-HbA1c) with point-of-care testing (POCT-HbA1c) and glucose monitoring index (GMI) derived by intermittently scanned CGM (isCGM) or estimated average glucose (eAG) derived by conventional self-monitored blood glucose (SMBG) devices.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Diabetes Treatment Center, Prince Sultan Military Medical City, Saudi Arabia, between May and December 2020 with 81 patients with diabetes who used the isCGM system (n = 30) or conventional finger-pricking SMBG system (n = 51). At the same visit, venous and capillary blood samples were taken for routine HbA1c analysis by the standard laboratory and POCT methods, respectively. Also, for isCGM users, the GMI data for 28 days (GMI-28) and 90 days (GMI-90) were obtained, while for SMBG users, eAG data for 30 days (eAG-30) and 90 days (eAG-90) were calculated. The limits of agreement in different HbA1c measurements were evaluated using a Bland-Altman analysis. Pearson correlation and multivariate linear regression analyses were also performed.

RESULTS: Based on the Bland-Altman analysis, HbA1c levels for 96.7% and 96.1% of the patients analyzed by the POCT and the standard laboratory methods were within the range of the 95% limit of agreement in both isCGM and conventional SMBG users, respectively. About 93.3% of the GMI measurements were within the 95% limit of agreement. Also, about 94.12% of the eAG-30 and 90.2% of the eAG-90 measurements were within the 95% limit of agreement. Moreover, the correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant positive correlation and linear regression among Lab-HbA1c, POCT-HbA1c, GMI, and eAG in both conventional SMBG and isCGM users (all p < 0.001). These positive results persisted significantly after adjusting for different factors (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: GMI derived by isCGM or eAG derived by conventional SMBG systems, as well as the POCT-HbA1c measurements, showed a high level of agreement; therefore, we recommend them as potential methods for diabetes monitoring, especially when a rapid result is needed or with patients with uncontrolled diabetes or on intensive insulin therapy.

PMID:35306640 | DOI:10.1007/s13300-022-01240-0

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Mar 19. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19690-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The degree of developmental stability of individuals and populations is most often estimated by their level of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) – the random deviations from perfect symmetry. In our previous work, we recorded high levels of FA (FAMI index: frequency of asymmetric manifestation of an individual) in Pelophylax ridibundus populations that inhabit biotopes at Sazliyka River, south Bulgaria with high levels of anthropogenic pollution (domestic sewage pollution). At the same time, in the biotopes located in the upper reaches of the river (less disrupted habitats), the populations showed low levels of FA. Currently, we present the results of the study of the values of several morphological parameters: snout-vent length (SVL), body weight (BW), and body condition factor (CF) in the same populations of P. ridibundus. In addition, we evaluate the correlation between the values of these morphological parameters and the values of fluctuating asymmetry (the FAMI index), using the Kendall rank correlation analysis. The analysis of the relationships between the parameters characterizing the physical fitness of frogs and the indicator of developmental stability – the FAMI index – did not establish statistically significant correlations in the analyses in the whole groups of P. ridibundus from each site and in the correlations between sexes. We believe that the approaches to the study of developmental stability (analysis of fluctuating asymmetry levels) and those related to the assessment of physical fitness (health status) of frogs should be applied independently of each other.

PMID:35306652 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-19690-1

Psychometrika. 2022 Mar 20. doi: 10.1007/s11336-022-09856-8. Online ahead of print.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:35306632 | DOI:10.1007/s11336-022-09856-8

Clin Oral Investig. 2022 Mar 20. doi: 10.1007/s00784-022-04458-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Posterior teeth intrusion is one of the best treatment options for treatment of skeletal open bite in adults; the surrounding anatomical landmarks are one of the restraining factors. This study aimed to assess the vertical relationship between the maxillary posterior teeth (MPT) and the maxillary sinus floor (MSF) in different facial growth patterns in the Chinese adult population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cone beam computed tomography images of 298 patients, 145 males and 153 females aged between 20 and 45 years, were analyzed. Based on Jarabak ratio and the mandibular plane inclination, the sample was categorized into 94 hyperdivergent, 102 hypodivergent, and 102 normodivergent facial patterns subjects. The vertical relationship between the root-apex distances were classified as favorable, indicating no contact (type 1), or unfavorable, indicating roots in contact (type 2) for the posterior teeth intrusion. The relationship in the unfavorable group was subdivided into three subgroups (T2C, T2LC, and T2P). Comparative statistical tests were done related to age, gender, tooth side, and type of multiplanar view (sagittal and coronal). The significant level was set to be P < 0.05.

RESULTS: There was a statistically significant difference in the mean distance between both genders in the hyperdivergent group (P < 0.001). The measured distance increased with age in all tooth roots (P < 0.001). In both sagittal and coronal views, the most frequent root scores were type 1 and type 2p (54.2%, 27.5%) and (55.1%, 21.4%), respectively. The hyperdivergent group demonstrated a higher prevalence of type 2P (31.6% and 25.5%), whereas the hypodivergent group showed a lower prevalence (25.1% and 19.2%); furthermore, the second molar’s mesiobuccal root in hyperdivergent patients showed the closest distance to the maxillary sinus in sagittal and coronal views, 0.3 ± 3.7 and 0.4 ± 3.1 mm, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Maxillary molars of hyperdivergent patients have the highest possible risk of root resorption due to the possible risk of cortical bone encroachment, while hypodivergent patients have the least possible risk.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Analysis of apex-sinus distances can be of great help for safe posterior teeth intrusion and providing correct and adequate treatment.

PMID:35306610 | DOI:10.1007/s00784-022-04458-1

Psychometrika. 2022 Mar 20. doi: 10.1007/s11336-022-09854-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Studies with sensitive questions should include a sufficient number of respondents to adequately address the research interest. While studies with an inadequate number of respondents may not yield significant conclusions, studies with an excess of respondents become wasteful of investigators’ budget. Therefore, it is an important step in survey sampling to determine the required number of participants. In this article, we derive sample size formulas based on confidence interval estimation of prevalence for four randomized response models, namely, the Warner’s randomized response model, unrelated question model, item count technique model and cheater detection model. Specifically, our sample size formulas control, with a given assurance probability, the width of a confidence interval within the planned range. Simulation results demonstrate that all formulas are accurate in terms of empirical coverage probabilities and empirical assurance probabilities. All formulas are illustrated using a real-life application about the use of unethical tactics in negotiation.

PMID:35306631 | DOI:10.1007/s11336-022-09854-w

Eur J Epidemiol. 2022 Mar 20. doi: 10.1007/s10654-022-00853-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This mixed design synthesis aimed to estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in community-dwelling elderly populations and other age groups from seroprevalence studies. Protocol: https://osf.io/47cgb . Eligible were seroprevalence studies done in 2020 and identified by any of four existing systematic reviews; with ≥ 500 participants aged ≥ 70 years; presenting seroprevalence in elderly people; aimed to generate samples reflecting the general population; and whose location had available data on cumulative COVID-19 deaths in elderly (primary cutoff ≥ 70 years; ≥ 65 or ≥ 60 also eligible). We extracted the most fully adjusted (if unavailable, unadjusted) seroprevalence estimates; age- and residence-stratified cumulative COVID-19 deaths (until 1 week after the seroprevalence sampling midpoint) from official reports; and population statistics, to calculate IFRs adjusted for test performance. Sample size-weighted IFRs were estimated for countries with multiple estimates. Thirteen seroprevalence surveys representing 11 high-income countries were included in the main analysis. Median IFR in community-dwelling elderly and elderly overall was 2.9% (range 1.8-9.7%) and 4.5% (range 2.5-16.7%) without accounting for seroreversion (2.2% and 4.0%, respectively, accounting for 5% monthly seroreversion). Multiple sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. IFR was higher with larger proportions of people > 85 years. The IFR of COVID-19 in community-dwelling elderly is lower than previously reported.

PMID:35306604 | DOI:10.1007/s10654-022-00853-w

Jpn J Ophthalmol. 2022 Mar 20. doi: 10.1007/s10384-022-00911-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To investigate the characteristics of retinal detachment (RD) and compare the outcomes of surgical interventions, such as scleral buckling (SB), pars plana vitrectomy (PPV), or PPV combined with SB, conducted on holidays and on workdays to determine the optimal surgical timing for primary RD treatment in clinical practice.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS: The cohort included 3178 patients with primary RD registered in the Japan Retinal Detachment Registry between February 2016 and March 2017. Surgery data were divided into holiday and workday groups. A descriptive analysis of primary RD characteristics was performed, and the outcomes for each surgical intervention were assessed. The primary outcome was anatomical failure at 6 months post-surgery classified as follows: level 1, inoperable state; level 2, anatomical recovery with silicone-oil use; and level 3, additional surgery required for RD repair.

RESULTS: The holiday group comprised 108 and the workday, 3070 cases of primary RD. Compared with those in the workday group, surgery in the holiday group took longer (PPV, P < 0.0001; SB, P = 0.047) and was performed by less experienced surgeons (P = 0.014). However, there were no statistically significant differences in surgical failure 6 months post-surgery between the workday and holiday groups.

CONCLUSION: Although surgery conducted on holidays and workdays was not significantly different in terms of outcome, some surgery should be postponed with proper preoperative interim measures to limit RD progress until it can be conducted on workdays by a well-prepared team.

PMID:35306598 | DOI:10.1007/s10384-022-00911-6

World J Surg. 2022 Mar 19. doi: 10.1007/s00268-022-06501-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Recommendations regarding the timing of cholecystectomy for acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) require a systematic summary of current evidence to guide clinical practice. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing early cholecystectomy (EC) versus delayed cholecystectomy (DC) in patients with ABP.

METHODS: We searched databases Medline, Embase, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Cochrane CENTRAL for randomized controlled trials addressing this question. Pairs of reviewers abstracted data and assessed the risk of bias in included studies. A random-effects meta-analysis was done to study the effect of the timing of cholecystectomy on outcomes of interest in patients with ABP. GRADE methodology was used to rate the quality in the body of evidence for each outcome as high, moderate, low, or very low.

RESULTS: 11 randomized trials (1176 participants) were included. High-quality evidence from seven RCTs (867 participants) showed a statistically significant reduction in the risk for recurrent biliary events in favour of early cholecystectomy (RR 0.10, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.19, I² = 0%). High-quality evidence from five trials was in favour of early cholecystectomy with a significant reduction in the risk 7of recurrent pancreatitis (RAP) in comparison to delayed cholecystectomy (RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.51, I² = 0%).

CONCLUSION: This review showed that EC has definite advantages over DC in terms of reducing recurrent pancreaticobiliary events and LOS following mild ABP. However, more RCTs are required to study the role of EC in patients with moderately-severe and severe ABP. Trial Registration Protocol registered on Prospero (CRD42020192823).

PMID:35306590 | DOI:10.1007/s00268-022-06501-4