Tag: statistics

Cad Saude Publica. 2021 Apr 7;37(3):e00069820. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00069820. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Vertical HIV transmission is still an important global public health problem. This study aimed to verify vertical HIV transmission in Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil, and to assess the possibility of its elimination. A cross-sectional study was conducted of HIV in pregnant women and a longitudinal study on the incidence of vertical HIV transmission in pregnant women living in the municipality (county) of Rio Branco in 2007-2015. The cohorts of pregnant women consisted of women who had liveborn children, stillbirths, or abortions. The data were obtained from the Brazilian Information System for Notificable Diseases (SINAN), Brazilian Information System on Live Births (SINASC), Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM), and Brazilian Hospital Information Systems (SIH). Databases. Probabilistic database linkage was performed with the OpenRecLink software. The authors calculated the HIV prevalence rate in pregnant women, the vertical transmission rate, and the principal associated factors. HIV prevalence in pregnant women showed an upward trend, and the mean prevalence was 0.18%. Variables statistically associated with the occurrence of HIV in pregnant women were maternal age ≥ 20 years (p = 0.007), lower schooling (p = 0.054), and unmarried conjugal status/without partner (p = 0.001). Vertical HIV transmission was 6.9%. Use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during prenatal care, even among pregnant women that already knew they were HIV-positive, was less than 90%. The elective cesarean rate was less than 60%, and the use of ART during delivery and by the newborn in the first 24 hours showed variations, depending on the period in which the maternal diagnosis was made. Although the strategies for the elimination of vertical HIV transmission are well established, this study’s results point to important flaws in the cascade of care for HIV-infected pregnant women in Rio Branco.

PMID:33852661 | DOI:10.1590/0102-311X00069820

Cad Saude Publica. 2021 Apr 7;37(3):e00112020. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00112020. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

The World Health Organization highlights the importance of health services organization and performance in tuberculosis (TB) control activities. This study aimed to assess the performance of primary healthcare services in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, in TB control activities in the dimensions Structure and Process, before and after the use of a validated instrument called Stratification by Degree of Clinical Risk and Tuberculosis Treatment Dropout (ERTB). This was a descriptive and prospective study with two interviews (455 professionals), the second of which after the ERTB. Performance classification was: ≤ 49.9%, critical; 50-79.9%, unsatisfactory, and ≥ 80%, satisfactory. The comparative assessment used the McNemar statistical test with p < 0.05. After risk stratification, most of the variables in each dimension improved significantly. The authors conclude that it was possible to identify satisfactory performance in most of the variables assessed in the Structure and Process dimensions in primary healthcare services in Belo Horizonte in relation to TB control activities, using a standardized questionnaire.

PMID:33852663 | DOI:10.1590/0102-311X00112020

Rev Lat Am Enfermagem. 2021 Apr 9;29:e3408. doi: 10.1590/1518-8345.4166.3408. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the contribution of an instructional module identifying the number and characteristics of lymph nodes by undergraduate nursing students.

METHOD: an experimental, randomized, controlled and masked study using an instructional module for intervention. The 68 students who made up the control group or the experimental group performed the prototype lymph node palpation in the initial and final phases, following the free registration of the characteristics and number of these structures. Between the phases, the instructional module (palpation prototype and a registration guide instrument) was applied to the experimental group. Descriptive statistics and mixed linear regression were used for analysis.

RESULTS: the experimental group showed greater accuracy (p<0.05) in the evaluation of the size, consistency, mobility and coalescence of the lymph nodes in the final phase when compared to the control; it also showed more chances to correctly evaluate the consistency ( OR 45,26; 95% CI<7,74>‡<264.54> p<0.0001), mobility (OR 55.95; CI 95% 12.45 – 251.60; p<0.0001) and size (OR 25.64; CI 95% 3.92 – 160.2; p=0.0002) of the lymph nodes.

CONCLUSION: the results reinforce the contribution of the instructional module to increase the knowledge of nursing students about the evaluation of lymph nodes.

PMID:33852680 | DOI:10.1590/1518-8345.4166.3408

Clinics (Sao Paulo). 2021 Apr 9;76:e2189. doi: 10.6061/clinics/2021/e2189. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study explored the effects of the timing of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) on liver function, bile biochemical indices, inflammatory reactions, and cholecysto-choledocholithiasis patient prognoses.

METHODS: A total of 103 cholecysto-choledocholithiasis patients were stratified into control (CG; n=51; LC at 4-7 d after ERCP) and observation groups (OG; n=52; LC at 1-3 d after ERCP) using a random number table.

RESULTS: The surgical time was shorter and intraoperative blood loss was less in OG than in CG, and the two groups were not statistically different in terms of time to the first passage of gas through anus, length of postoperative hospital stay, conversion rate to laparotomy, and stone-free rate. Four weeks after LC, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), total bilirubin (TBil), albumin (ALB), and glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) levels declined in both groups, but the difference was not statistically significant. Three days after LC, total bile acid (TBA) levels increased, and cholesterol (CHO), unconjugated bilirubin (UCB), and TBiL levels were reduced in both groups, but were not statistically different (p>0.05). Three days after LC, interleukin (IL)-6, procalcitonin (PCT), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels in the serum and bile increased in both groups and were lower in OG. The total incidence of perioperative complications was 1.92% in OG, which was lower than 15.69% in the CG.

CONCLUSION: For cholecysto-choledocholithiasis patients, LC at 1-3 d after ERCP can shorten surgical times, reduce intraoperative blood loss, improve liver function and bile biochemistry, relieve inflammatory reactions, reduce complications, and improve prognoses.

PMID:33852651 | DOI:10.6061/clinics/2021/e2189

Clinics (Sao Paulo). 2021 Apr 9;76:e2501. doi: 10.6061/clinics/2021/e2501. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Antineutrophil cyto plasmic antibody-associated vasculitis (AAV) is a fatal disease. Currently, predictors of mortality due to AAV are based on the distribution of organ involvement. The novel fibrosis index (NFI) is an index composed of laboratory results that reflect the degree of liver fibrosis. This study aimed to evaluate whether NFI can predict poor outcomes in patients with AAV without substantial liver disease.

METHODS: A total of 210 patients with immunosuppressive drug-naïve AAV were retrospectively reviewed. NFI was calculated as follows: NFI=(serum bilirubin × (alkaline phosphatase)2)/(platelet count×(serum albumin)2). NFI cut-off was set at 1.24 (the highest quartile). Poor outcomes were defined as all-cause mortality, relapse, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

RESULTS: During the median 34.5 months of follow-up, 21 patients (10%) died, 72 patients (34.3%) relapsed, and 38 patients (18.1%) had ESRD due to AAV progression. The median calculated NFI was 0.61, and it was higher in AAV patients with all-cause mortality than in those without mortality, but the difference was not statistically significant (1.26 vs. 0.59). AAV patients with NFI at diagnosis ≥1.24 exhibited a significantly lower cumulative patient survival rate than those with NFI at diagnosis <1.24 (p=0.002). Multivariate Cox hazard model analysis showed that NFI at diagnosis ≥1.24 was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in AAV (hazard ratios [HR] 2.850, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.026, 7.910).

CONCLUSIONS: NFI ≥1.24, which may be an independent predictive marker for all-cause mortality in AAV patients without substantial liver disease.

PMID:33852653 | DOI:10.6061/clinics/2021/e2501

Clinics (Sao Paulo). 2021 Apr 9;76:e2592. doi: 10.6061/clinics/2021/e2592. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To compare the surgical outcomes of inferomedial wall orbital decompression (IM-OD) and balanced medial plus lateral wall orbital decompression (ML-OD) in patients with inactive Graves’ orbitopathy (GO) with regard to exophthalmos reduction and ocular motility abnormalities.

METHODS: Forty-two patients with inactive GO eligible for OD were randomly assigned to either the IM-OD or ML-OD groups. Pre and postoperative evaluations included Hertel exophthalmometry, sensory, and motor extraocular motility assessment, standardized photographs in the nine gaze positions, and computed tomography (CT) of the orbits. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03278964.

RESULTS: Exophthalmometry reduction was statistically significant in both groups (p<0.001), but was greater in the ML-OD group (p=0.010). New-onset esotropia occurred in 11.1% and 23.5% of patients who underwent IM-OD and ML-OD, respectively, with no statistically significant difference in the frequency of pre and postoperative strabismus in either group. The mean increase in preoperative esotropia was 24±6.9 and 12±8.8 prism diopters in patients who underwent IM-OD and ML-OD, respectively. In the IM-OD group, abduction and elevation worsened at the first (p<0.05) and third (p<0.05) postoperative visits but were restored at 6 months. The versions did not change postoperatively with ML-OD. The preoperative CT-measured medial rectus muscle area predicted new-onset strabismus (p=0.023). Significant postoperative medial rectus muscle enlargement occurred in both groups (p<0.001). Restriction in elevation and abduction was significantly associated with enlarged inferior (p=0.007) and medial rectus muscle areas (p=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS: IM-OD is as safe as ML-OD with regard to new-onset strabismus, and represents a good alternative for patients who do not require significant exophthalmos reduction. ML-OD offers greater exophthalmos reduction and smoother postoperative recovery. Patients with preoperative enlarged medial rectus muscle on CT are at risk for new-onset esotropia, and preoperative esotropia is likely to increase after OD.

PMID:33852655 | DOI:10.6061/clinics/2021/e2592

PLoS One. 2021 Apr 14;16(4):e0249953. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249953. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: New HIV infection during pre-conception and pregnancy is a significant contributor of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa. This study estimated HIV incidence (defined as new infection within the last one year from the time of the survey which included both new infections occurred during pregnancy or just before pregnancy) among pregnant women and described the characteristics of recently infected pregnant women at national level.

METHODS: Between 1 October and 15 November 2017, we conducted a national cross-sectional survey among pregnant women aged 15-49 years old attending antenatal care at 1,595 public facilities. Blood specimens were collected from pregnant women and tested for HIV in a centralised laboratory. Plasma viral load and Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunosorbent Assay (LAg) tests were further performed on HIV positive specimens to differentiate between recent and long-term infections. Recent infection was defined as infection that occurred within one year from the date of collection of blood specimen for the survey. Data on age, age of partner, and marital status were collected through interviews. Women whose specimens were classified as recent by LAg assay and with viral loads >1,000 copies/mL were considered as recently infected. The calculated proportion of HIV positive women with recent infection was adjusted for assay-specific parameters to estimate annual incidence. Survey multinomial logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with being recently infected using HIV negative women as a reference group. Age-disparate relationship was defined as having a partner 5 or more years older.

RESULTS: Of 10,049 HIV positive participants with LAg and viral load data, 1.4% (136) were identified as recently infected. The annual HIV incidence was 1.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-1.7). In multivariable analyses, being single (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.8-6.2) or cohabiting (aOR: 3.8, 95% CI: 1.8-7.7), compared to being married as well as being in an age-disparate relationship among young women (aOR: 3.1, 95% CI: 2.0-4.7; reference group: young women (15-24years) whose partners were not 5 years or more older) were associated with higher odds of recent infection.

CONCLUSIONS: Compared to previous studies among pregnant women, the incidence estimated in this study was substantially lower. However, the UNAIDS target to reduce incidence by 75% by 2020 (which is equivalent to reducing incidence to <1%) has not been met. The implementation of HIV prevention and treatment interventions should be intensified, targeting young women engaged in age-disparate relationship and unmarried women to fast track progress towards the UNAIDS target.

PMID:33852629 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0249953

PLoS One. 2021 Apr 14;16(4):e0250158. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250158. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

While the world awaits a widely available COVID-19 vaccine, availability of testing is limited in many regions and can be further compounded by shortages of reagents, prolonged processing time and delayed results. One approach to rapid testing is to leverage the volatile organic compound (VOC) signature of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Detection dogs, a biological sensor of VOCs, were utilized to investigate whether SARS-CoV-2 positive urine and saliva patient samples had a unique odor signature. The virus was inactivated in all training samples with either detergent or heat treatment. Using detergent-inactivated urine samples, dogs were initially trained to find samples collected from hospitalized patients confirmed with SARS-CoV-2 infection, while ignoring samples collected from controls. Dogs were then tested on their ability to spontaneously recognize heat-treated urine samples as well as heat-treated saliva from hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. Dogs successfully discriminated between infected and uninfected urine samples, regardless of the inactivation protocol, as well as heat-treated saliva samples. Generalization to novel samples was limited, particularly after intensive training with a restricted sample set. A unique odor associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection present in human urine as well as saliva, provides impetus for the development of odor-based screening, either by electronic, chemical, or biological sensing methods. The use of dogs for screening in an operational setting will require training with a large number of novel SARS-CoV-2 positive and confirmed negative samples.

PMID:33852639 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250158

PLoS One. 2021 Apr 14;16(4):e0250110. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250110. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Prediction of the dynamics of new SARS-CoV-2 infections during the current COVID-19 pandemic is critical for public health planning of efficient health care allocation and monitoring the effects of policy interventions. We describe a new approach that forecasts the number of incident cases in the near future given past occurrences using only a small number of assumptions.

METHODS: Our approach to forecasting future COVID-19 cases involves 1) modeling the observed incidence cases using a Poisson distribution for the daily incidence number, and a gamma distribution for the series interval; 2) estimating the effective reproduction number assuming its value stays constant during a short time interval; and 3) drawing future incidence cases from their posterior distributions, assuming that the current transmission rate will stay the same, or change by a certain degree.

RESULTS: We apply our method to predicting the number of new COVID-19 cases in a single state in the U.S. and for a subset of counties within the state to demonstrate the utility of this method at varying scales of prediction. Our method produces reasonably accurate results when the effective reproduction number is distributed similarly in the future as in the past. Large deviations from the predicted results can imply that a change in policy or some other factors have occurred that have dramatically altered the disease transmission over time.

CONCLUSION: We presented a modelling approach that we believe can be easily adopted by others, and immediately useful for local or state planning.

PMID:33852642 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250110

Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2021 Apr 14;4:CD007694. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD007694.pub3.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Asthma is characterised by chronic inflammation of the airways and recurrent exacerbations with wheezing, chest tightness, and cough. Treatment with inhaled steroids and bronchodilators can result in good control of symptoms, prevention of further morbidity, and improved quality of life. However, an increase in serious adverse events with the use of both regular formoterol and regular salmeterol (long-acting beta₂-agonists) compared with placebo for chronic asthma has been demonstrated in previous Cochrane Reviews. This increase was statistically significant in trials that did not randomise participants to an inhaled corticosteroid, but not when formoterol or salmeterol was combined with an inhaled corticosteroid. The confidence intervals were found to be too wide to ensure that the addition of an inhaled corticosteroid renders regular long-acting beta₂-agonists completely safe; few participants and insufficient serious adverse events in these trials precluded a definitive decision about the safety of combination treatments.

OBJECTIVES: To assess risks of mortality and non-fatal serious adverse events in trials that have randomised patients with chronic asthma to regular formoterol and an inhaled corticosteroid versus regular salmeterol and an inhaled corticosteroid.

SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Airways Register of Trials, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and two trial registries to identify reports of randomised trials for inclusion. We checked manufacturers’ websites and clinical trial registers for unpublished trial data, as well as Food and Drug Administration (FDA) submissions in relation to formoterol and salmeterol. The date of the most recent search was 24 February 2021.

SELECTION CRITERIA: We included controlled clinical trials with a parallel design, recruiting patients of any age and severity of asthma, if they randomised patients to treatment with regular formoterol versus regular salmeterol (each with a randomised inhaled corticosteroid) and were of at least 12 weeks’ duration.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected trials for inclusion in the review, extracted outcome data from published papers and trial registries, and applied GRADE rating for the results. We sought unpublished data on mortality and serious adverse events from study sponsors and authors. The primary outcomes were all cause mortality and non-fatal serious adverse events. We chose not to calculate an average result from all the formulations of formoterol and inhaled steroid, as the doses and delivery devices are too diverse to assume a single class effect.

MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-one studies in 11,572 adults and adolescents and two studies in 723 children met the eligibility criteria of the review. No data were available for two studies; therefore these were not included in the analysis. Among adult and adolescent studies, seven compared formoterol and budesonide to salmeterol and fluticasone (N = 7764), six compared formoterol and beclomethasone to salmeterol and fluticasone (N = 1923), two compared formoterol and mometasone to salmeterol and fluticasone (N = 1126), two compared formoterol and fluticasone to salmeterol and fluticasone (N = 790), and one compared formoterol and budesonide to salmeterol and budesonide (N = 229). In total, five deaths were reported among adults, none of which was thought to be related to asthma. The certainty of evidence for all-cause mortality was low, as there were not enough deaths to permit any precise conclusions regarding the risk of mortality on combination formoterol versus combination salmeterol. In all, 201 adults reported non-fatal serious adverse events. In studies comparing formoterol and budesonide to salmeterol and fluticasone, there were 77 in the formoterol arm and 68 in the salmeterol arm (Peto odds ratio (OR) 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 1.59; 5935 participants, 7 studies; moderate-certainty evidence). In the formoterol and beclomethasone studies, there were 12 adults in the formoterol arm and 13 in the salmeterol arm with events (Peto OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.43 to 2.08; 1941 participants, 6 studies; moderate-certainty evidence). In the formoterol and mometasone studies, there were 18 in the formoterol arm and 11 in the salmeterol arm (Peto OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.47 to 2.20; 1126 participants, 2 studies; moderate-certainty evidence). One adult in the formoterol and fluticasone studies in the salmeterol arm experienced an event (Peto OR 0.05, 95% CI 0.00 to 3.10; 293 participants, 2 studies; low-certainty evidence). Another adult in the formoterol and budesonide compared to salmeterol and budesonide study in the formoterol arm had an event (Peto OR 7.45, 95% CI 0.15 to 375.68; 229 participants, 1 study; low-certainty evidence). Only 46 adults were reported to have experienced asthma-related serious adverse events. The certainty of the evidence was low to very low due to the small number of events and the absence of independent assessment of causation. The two studies in children compared formoterol and fluticasone to salmeterol and fluticasone. No deaths and no asthma-related serious adverse events were reported in these studies. Four all-cause serious adverse events were reported: three in the formoterol arm, and one in the salmeterol arm (Peto OR 2.72, 95% CI 0.38 to 19.46; 548 participants, 2 studies; low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS’ CONCLUSIONS: Overall, for both adults and children, evidence is insufficient to show whether regular formoterol in combination with budesonide, beclomethasone, fluticasone, or mometasone has a different safety profile from salmeterol in combination with fluticasone or budesonide. Five deaths of any cause were reported across all studies and no deaths from asthma; this information is insufficient to permit any firm conclusions about the relative risks of mortality on combination formoterol in comparison to combination salmeterol inhalers. Evidence on all-cause non-fatal serious adverse events indicates that there is probably little to no difference between formoterol/budesonide and salmeterol/fluticasone inhalers. However events for the other formoterol combination inhalers were too few to allow conclusions. Only 46 non-fatal serious adverse events were thought to be asthma related; this small number in addition to the absence of independent outcome assessment means that we have very low confidence for this outcome. We found no evidence of safety issues that would affect the choice between salmeterol and formoterol combination inhalers used for regular maintenance therapy by adults and children with asthma.

PMID:33852162 | DOI:10.1002/14651858.CD007694.pub3