Ann Surg Oncol. 2022 Aug 18. doi: 10.1245/s10434-022-12368-5. Online ahead of print.
BACKGROUND: Surgical management of liver metastases of uveal melanoma (LMUM) is associated with the best survival rates, especially for patients with a low tumor burden in the liver. The aim was to determine whether the tumor growth rate (TGR0) before liver resection helps predict survival in patients with resectable LMUM.
METHODS: This retrospective study included 99 patients with LMUM treated with liver resection between November 2007 and November 2020. TGR0 was expressed as the percentage change in tumor volume over 1 month according to two pretreatment imaging scans. Multivariate Cox analyses identified independent predictors of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS).
RESULTS: DFS and OS had a statistically significant positive linear relationship (Spearman correlation r = 0.68, p < 0.001). A disease-free interval (DFI) > 24 months and a TGR0 ≤ 50%/month were independent factors associated with better DFS and OS. The 2-component model including TGR0 and DFI had a mean time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.75-0.86) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.87), respectively, for predicting DFS and OS. DFI with TGR0 defined three kinetic risk groups that had distinct DFS and OS outcomes (p < 0.001). Cytogenetic alterations at baseline were partially predictive factors of the kinetic risk score based on TGR0 and DFI.
DISCUSSION: The assessment of TGR0 improves prognostic stratification by identifying patients at high risk of recurrence and poor survival after liver resection. TGR0 and DFI, reflecting tumor aggressivity, have the potential to be important markers for systemic adjuvant decisions.