Nevin Manimala Statistics

Time from symptom onset to severe COVID-19 and risk factors among patients in Southern Ethiopia: a survival analysis

J Int Med Res. 2022 Aug;50(8):3000605221119366. doi: 10.1177/03000605221119366.


OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the time to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and risk factors among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Southern Ethiopia.

METHOD: This two-center retrospective cohort study involved patients with confirmed COVID-19 from 1 October 2020 to 30 September 2021. Kaplan-Meier graphs and log-rank tests were used to determine the pattern of COVID-19 severity among categories of variables. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional regression models were used to identify the risk factors of severe COVID-19.

RESULTS: Four hundred thirteen patients with COVID-19 with a mean age of 41.9 ± 15.3 years were involved in the study. There were 194 severe cases (46.9.1%), including 77 (39.6%) deaths. The median time from symptom onset to severe COVID-19 was 8 days (interquartile range: 7-12 days). The risk factors for severe COVID-19 were age >65 (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.65, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.02, 3.72), cough (AHR = 1.59, 95%CI: 1.39, 2.84), chest pain (AHR = 1.47, 95%CI: 1.34, 2.66), headache (AHR = 2.04, 95%CI: 1.43, 2.88), comorbidity (AHR = 1.3, 95%CI: 1.01, 2.04), asthma (AHR = 1.6. 95%CI: 1.04, 2.24), and symptom onset to admission more than 5 days (AHR = 0.48, 95%CI: 0.34, 0.68).

CONCLUSION: Patients with symptoms and comorbidities should be closely monitored.

PMID:36036178 | DOI:10.1177/03000605221119366

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