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Predictive value of Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2 combined blood lactate concentration for primary peritonitis-related septic shock in children

Zhonghua Wei Zhong Bing Ji Jiu Yi Xue. 2023 Jan;35(1):77-81. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20220624-00600.


OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prognostic value of the ratio of veno-arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure difference to arterio-venous oxygen content difference (Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2) in children with primary peritonitis-related septic shock.

METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted. Sixty-three children with primary peritonitis-related septic shock admitted to department of intensive care unit of the Children’s Hospital Affiliated to Xi’an Jiaotong University from December 2016 to December 2021 were enrolled. The 28-day all-cause mortality was the primary endpoint event. The children were divided into survival group and death group according to the prognosis. The baseline data, blood gas analysis, blood routine, coagulation, inflammatory status, critical score and other related clinical data of the two groups were statistics. The factors affecting the prognosis were analyzed by binary Logistic regression, and the predictability of risk factors were tested by the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve). The risk factors were stratified according to the cut-off, Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis compared the prognostic differences between the groups.

RESULTS: A total of 63 children were enrolled, including 30 males and 33 females, the average age (5.6±4.0) years old, 16 cases died in 28 days, with mortality was 25.4%. There were no significant differences in gender, age, body weight and pathogen distribution between the two groups. The proportion of mechanical ventilation, surgical intervention, vasoactive drug application, and procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, activated partial thromboplastin time, serum lactate (Lac), Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2, pediatric sequential organ failure assessment, pediatric risk of mortality III in the death group were higher than those in the survival group. Platelet count, fibrinogen, mean arterial pressure were lower than those in the survival group, and the differences were statistically significant. Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that Lac and Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2 were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of children [odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were 2.01 (1.15-3.21), 2.37 (1.41-3.22), respectively, both P < 0.01]. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve (AUC) of Lac, Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2 and their combination were 0.745, 0.876 and 0.923, the sensitivity were 75%, 85% and 88%, and the specificity were 71%, 87% and 91%, respectively. Risk factors were stratified according to cut-off, and Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis showed that the 28-day cumulative probability of survival of Lac ≥ 4 mmol/L group was lower than that in Lac < 4 mmol/L group [64.29% (18/28) vs. 82.86% (29/35), P < 0.05]. Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2 ≥ 1.6 group 28-day cumulative probability of survival was less than Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2 < 1.6 group [62.07% (18/29) vs. 85.29% (29/34), P < 0.01]. After a hierarchical combination of the two sets of indicator variables, the 28-day cumulative probability of survival of Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2 ≥ 1.6 and Lac ≥ 4 mmol/L group significantly lower than that of the other three groups (Log-rank test, χ2 = 7.910, P = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS: Pv-aCO2/Ca-vO2 combined with Lac has a good predictive value for the prognosis of children with peritonitis-related septic shock.

PMID:36880243 | DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20220624-00600

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