Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effects of vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks: a conceptual modeling approach

Math Biosci Eng. 2023 Jan 4;20(3):4816-4837. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023223.


This paper is devoted to investigating the impact of vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks. In this work, we propose a compartmental epidemic ordinary differential equation model, which extends the previous so-called SEIRD model [1,2,3,4] by incorporating the birth and death of the population, disease-induced mortality and waning immunity, and adding a vaccinated compartment to account for vaccination. Firstly, we perform a mathematical analysis for this model in a special case where the disease transmission is homogeneous and vaccination program is periodic in time. In particular, we define the basic reproduction number $ mathcal{R}_0 $ for this system and establish a threshold type of result on the global dynamics in terms of $ mathcal{R}_0 $. Secondly, we fit our model into multiple COVID-19 waves in four locations including Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea and then forecast the trend of COVID-19 by the end of 2022. Finally, we study the effects of vaccination again the ongoing pandemic by numerically computing the basic reproduction number $ mathcal{R}_0 $ under different vaccination programs. Our findings indicate that the fourth dose among the high-risk group is likely needed by the end of the year.

PMID:36896524 | DOI:10.3934/mbe.2023223

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