Nevin Manimala Statistics

Valuing mortality attributable to present and future temperature extremes in Argentina

Econ Hum Biol. 2023 Sep 9;51:101305. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101305. Online ahead of print.


This study analyzes the weather-related health damage of present and future extreme temperatures in Argentina. Focusing on mortality, short-term impacts of temperature are obtained by regressing monthly mortality rates on inter-annual monthly weather variability. For this purpose, a countrywide panel dataset at the municipal level was constructed from the universe of deaths between 2010 and 2019, and daily meteorological records from the ERA5 weather dataset. Then, NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) are used to project future mortality by 2085 under two climate scenarios. Finally, present and future mortality-related economic damages are assessed using the Value of a Statistical Life. The results show that one additional day of extreme temperatures increase all-cause mortality rates relative to mild weather and that the impact of hotter-than-average temperatures is greater in magnitude than that of colder ones. Substantial heterogeneity exists between causes of death and age groups, with older people facing greater risks, while the results for gender are inconclusive. All days of extreme cold in a year generate damage equivalent to 0.64% of GDP, while heat damage is 0.11% of GDP. The total damage by extreme temperatures adds up to 0.75% of the 2019 GDP. When future temperatures are valued, the total damage increases by an additional 1.45% under scenario RCP8.5 because the lower mortality occurring on cold days only partially offsets the increase in the number of hot days. On the contrary, if temperature changes were to be mild (i.e., under scenario RCP4.5), overall mortality would be lower at the national level and the corresponding damages would decrease by 0.02%.

PMID:37722142 | DOI:10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101305

By Nevin Manimala

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