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Long-term trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in China from 2006 to 2020 by region and sex: an age-period-cohort analysis

BMC Public Health. 2023 Oct 20;23(1):2057. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16892-1.


BACKGROUND: China has a high mortality from nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The NPC mortality trends in China from 2006 to 2020 were described and analyzed to understand its epidemiological characteristics by region and sex and to explore age, period, and cohort effects.

METHODS: This study utilized NPC mortality data from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. A joinpoint regression model was used to fit the standardized NPC mortality and age-specific mortality. The age-period-cohort model was applied to investigate age, period, and cohort effects on NPC mortality risk.

RESULTS: The results showed that the NPC mortality rate in China has been declining steadily. From 2006 to 2020, the standardized NPC mortality rate in most age groups showed a significant downward trend. The annual percentage change was smaller in rural areas than in urban areas. The mortality risks of rural males and rural females from 2016 to 2020 were 1.139 times and 1.080 times those from 2011 to 2015, respectively. Both urban males born in 1984-1988 and rural males born in 1979-1983 exhibited an increasing trend in NPC mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed the effectiveness of NPC prevention and treatment strategies in China from 2006 to 2020. However, it underscored the urgent need for targeted interventions in rural areas to further reduce NPC mortality rates.

PMID:37864181 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-16892-1

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