BMC Public Health. 2026 May 7. doi: 10.1186/s12889-026-27664-y. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: It is still unclear how the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) changes across life course and the specific influence of body mass index (BMI) on risk trajectory.
METHODS: We included 106,962 participants aged 35-74 from a Chinese longitudinal cohort during 1992 to 2021 with 4 repeated measurements. China-PAR (Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China) equation was applied to calculate 10-year CVD risk. General additional mixed model and Joinpoint model were used to elaborate CVD risk trajectory and the potential benefits of normal BMI.
RESULTS: The 10-year CVD risk for Chinese adults increased from 1.11% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00%, 1.22%] to 14.87% (95%CI: 14.76%, 14.99%) dramatically between ages 35-74, with average CVD risk reaching moderate- and high-risk level at 53 and 65 years, respectively. Compared to overweight/obesity (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), normal BMI (< 25 kg/m2) could effectively slow the increase of CVD risk during lifespan (average slope: 0.42% vs. 0.33%), and postpone the moderate- and high-risk age window by 4 years and 5 years, respectively. Risk difference between overweight/obesity and normal BMI groups gradually climbed from -0.10% (95%CI: -0.47%, 0.28%) to 3.02% (95%CI: 2.69%, 3.35%) between ages 35-74. Women displayed a similar uptrend, while men experienced peak benefits at 53 years (2.09%, 95%CI: 1.86%, 2.31%) followed by a slight decrease.
CONCLUSIONS: This study delineated cardiovascular risk trajectory, identifying critical intervention windows and demonstrating potential cardiovascular benefits of normal BMI, particularly in women.
PMID:42098752 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-026-27664-y
