Pest Manag Sci. 2026 Jun 3. doi: 10.1002/ps.70987. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Migratory locusts threaten grassland productivity and transboundary biosecurity in arid Central Asia, but climate-driven changes in suitable habitats remain unclear. This study quantified the historical and future habitat suitability of Calliptamus italicus and Locusta migratoria migratoria in the China-Kazakhstan border region, identified key environmental factors linked to critical developmental periods, and analysed habitat shifts and centroid migration under future climate scenarios.
RESULTS: Model performance was high for both species (mean area under the curve/true skill statistic (AUC/TSS): 0.964/0.854 for C. italicus and 0.967/0.823 for L. migratoria migratoria). For C. italicus, eclosion-period wind speed and overwintering relative humidity were the main historical drivers, whereas future suitability was driven mainly by overwintering relative humidity and slope. Low-suitability habitat declined from 206 900 to 139 400 km2 during 2000-2020, while future expansion was concentrated in Almaty, Ulytau, Tacheng, and Ili, with moderate-suitability area increasing by up to 522 000 km2. For L. migratoria migratoria, eclosion-period normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was the main historical factor, whereas future suitability was driven mainly by wind and precipitation. Its habitat showed a stable-core-expanding-edge pattern, extending into east Kazakhstan, Abai, and Altay, with moderate- and high-suitability areas increasing by up to 469 900 and 128 700 km2. Habitat centroids shifted mainly northeastward for C. italicus and northwestward for L. migratoria migratoria.
CONCLUSION: Climate change is likely to intensify habitat redistribution and transboundary invasion risk for both locusts. Integrating developmental-period environmental controls with dynamic habitat-shift analysis improves risk assessment and supports earlier warning, cross-border monitoring, and coordinated locust management. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.
PMID:42237061 | DOI:10.1002/ps.70987
