Medicine (Baltimore). 2026 Jun 12;105(24):e49163. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000049163.
ABSTRACT
This ecological study was based on secondary, population-level data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study. We systematically assessed the burden of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) from 1990 to 2021 at global, regional, and national levels, and projected trends through 2041. Temporal trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression to calculate the average annual percentage change. Future trends up to 2041 were projected using autoregressive integrated moving average models. In 2021, the global number of prevalent GBS cases reached 471,850, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 5.91 per 100,000, a 229% increase since 1990 (average annual percentage change: 3.34). Substantial regional disparities were observed, and frontier analysis indicated an inverse correlation between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rates. The disease burden was higher in males than in females, with peak prevalence occurring among children aged 5 to 9 years. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic was temporally associated with a marked increase in GBS burden in 2021, coinciding with a shift in the burden toward low-SDI regions. Projections suggest that the age-standardized prevalence rate will continue to rise through 2041, disproportionately affecting resource-limited areas. The global burden of GBS increased markedly from 1990 to 2021, with a notable rise after 2019 that was temporally associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Addressing this growing burden will warrant targeted interventions, strengthened surveillance, and equitable allocation of resources, particularly in low-SDI populations.
PMID:42299592 | DOI:10.1097/MD.0000000000049163
