Sci Rep. 2026 Jul 5. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-61023-6. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
Market vendors play a critical role in food distribution, employment creation, and the functioning of the urban economy in Uganda, yet they operate within highly flood-prone environments. Despite their socio-economic importance, there remains limited empirical understanding of the factors shaping flood impacts and the adaptive capacity of informal market vendors in such urban vulnerable contexts. This study therefore seeks to address this knowledge gap by examining the determinants of flood impacts and adaptation capacity among market vendors in Walukuba-Masese, Jinja City. A cross-sectional survey of 263 vendors was conducted using structured questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests, and logistic regression models. Logistic regression results showed that vendors with 5-9 years of business experience had significantly lower flood impacts (β = -1.89, p < 0.05) compared to vendors with fewer years of operation. Vendors who were not members of business associations were about 5.7 times more likely to experience flood impacts compared to those who were members. Adaptive capacity analysis revealed several significant determinants. Access to savings (β = 4.876, p < 0.001), access to credit (β = 2.616, p = 0.002), availability of storage containers (β = 2.939, p = 0.002), receipt of early warning information (β = 3.857, p < 0.001), disaster preparedness training (β = 4.097, p < 0.001), vendor association membership (β = 1.680, p = 0.002), and support from family or community during floods (β = 4.014, p < 0.001) significantly enhanced vendors’ adaptive capacity. Additionally, the type of goods sold (β = 0.214, p = 0.020) and financial loss experienced during the last flood (β = 0.090, p = 0.023) were also associated with adaptive responses. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions such as improved drainage infrastructure, expanded access to financial services, disaster preparedness training, and strengthened early warning systems to enhance the resilience of informal urban enterprises and support inclusive flood risk management in Uganda’s rapidly growing secondary cities.
PMID:42402662 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-026-61023-6
