Environ Monit Assess. 2026 Jul 28;198(8):889. doi: 10.1007/s10661-026-15736-w.
ABSTRACT
Urban expansion modifies land surface characteristics and can influence local climatic conditions, particularly in arid coastal cities where urban processes interact with regional atmospheric forcing. This study investigated long-term relationships among land cover change, population growth, and summer climate variability in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, using Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), annual population estimates, and meteorological observations spanning 1992-2022. Temporal trends were evaluated using linear regression, while Pearson correlation and multiple regression analyses were applied to assess associations between urbanization indicators and climatic variables. The results show significant increases in vegetation cover and population together with a significant decline in NDBI over the study period, indicating substantial changes in the urban landscape. In contrast, July air temperature and relative humidity exhibited comparatively weak long-term trends. Built-up intensity showed a significant negative association with July relative humidity, whereas relationships with temperature were weak and statistically nonsignificant. Multiple regression analyses further indicated that land cover characteristics and population explained only a modest proportion of climatic variability. These findings suggest that urban land cover change influences atmospheric moisture more strongly than summer air temperature, while regional atmospheric and coastal processes remain the dominant controls on climate variability in Jeddah. The study provides empirical evidence to support climate-responsive urban planning and sustainable adaptation strategies in rapidly urbanizing arid coastal cities.
PMID:42521932 | DOI:10.1007/s10661-026-15736-w
