Int J Biometeorol. 2026 Aug 11;70(8):230. doi: 10.1007/s00484-026-03292-4.
ABSTRACT
The present study intended to analyze the comprehensive niche overlapping among four invasive whitefly species viz., Aleurodicus rugioperculatus (rugose spiraling whitefly), Paraleyrodes bondari (Bondar’s nesting whitefly), Paraleyrodes minei (nesting whitefly), and Aleurotrachelus atratus (palm infesting whitefly), which invaded successively into the coconut ecosystem during 2016-2019. Analyzing ecological niche overlap among these whiteflies helps understand their invasion dynamics and manage ecological impacts on the coconut. The study is grounded in niche conservatism theory and tests whether co-invasive whiteflies retain their fundamental climatic niches in India, and whether niche overlap reflects non-random climatic convergence consistent with shared ecological filtering. Further, niche equivalency and similarity tests provide a statistical basis for determining whether observed overlaps are greater than expected by chance. Spatial thinning (10 km) and target-group background correction were applied to occurrence records to minimize sampling bias. Study revealed that all four niche models substantially outperform random prediction, with Paraleyrodes bondari exhibiting the highest discriminatory power (AUC = 0.914). Additional model evaluation using True Skill Statistic (TSS) and partial ROC further confirmed robust predictive performance across all species. Across all species, temperature-related variables were more influential than precipitation-related variables. Notably, isothermality (bio03) consistently emerged as the most important predictor for A. rugioperculatus, A. atratus, and P. bondari, whereas P. minei showed a stronger influence of the maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio05). Habitat suitability mapping predicted that southern India has high to moderate suitability for A. rugioperculatus, A. atratus, and P. bondari, and southern and central India for P. minei. Pairwise ecological niche overlap was greatest between A. rugioperculatus and P. minei, and lowest between A. rugioperculatus and P. bondari. Native versus invaded niche comparisons revealed significant niche conservatism in A. rugioperculatus and A. atratus, while P. minei showed the greatest niche shift, expanding into climatic space not occupied in its Neotropical native range. The present study is useful for the spatial ecology of invasive whiteflies, interspecific competition, hotspots for co-infestation, pest risk assessments, and early-warning systems for multi-species management in coconut production systems.
PMID:42579177 | DOI:10.1007/s00484-026-03292-4
