Biodemography Soc Biol. 2026 Aug 16:1-15. doi: 10.1080/19485565.2026.2716716. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
In 2020, the total fertility rate in Puerto Rico was estimated at 0.93 children per woman, one of the lowest in the world. While fertility decline preceded the new millennium, little is known about whether the onset of the 2006 economic crisis influenced its pace. Using birth counts from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics System and population estimates, we calculate fertility measures for 1990-2020. Regression models estimated by ordinary least squares, with Newey-West standard errors, were fit to estimate the overall annual percent change (APC), and to compare the periods before and after the onset of the economic crisis (1990-2005 and 2006-2020). The pace of decline changed for eight of the nine indicators: accelerating for seven, while the ASFR for women aged 40-44 years declined at a slower pace. Stratified models show that all fertility measures and the share of women aged 15-44 declined significantly in both periods, with a faster decline observed in the post-crisis period for six of the nine. A significant acceleration in fertility decline was observed in the age-specific fertility rates for women under 35 years. In Puerto Rico, findings suggest that fertility decline accelerated after the onset of the economic crisis.
PMID:42604459 | DOI:10.1080/19485565.2026.2716716
