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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Ethnicity and suicide in England and Wales: a national linked cohort study

Lancet Psychiatry. 2024 Aug;11(8):611-619. doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00184-6.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Understanding of ethnic disparities in suicide in England and Wales is poor as ethnicity is not recorded on death certificates. Using linked data, we examined variations, by sex, in suicide rates in England and Wales by ethnicity and migrant and descendant status.

METHODS: Using the Office for National Statistics 2012-19 mortality data linked to the 2011 census from the Public Health Research Database, we calculated the age-standardised suicide rates by sex for each of the 18 self-identified ethnicity groups in England and Wales. We present rates by age, sex, and methods used for suicide by ethnic group. We estimated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression models for each minority ethnic group compared with the majority population. We involved people with lived experience in the research.

FINDINGS: Overall, 31 644 suicide deaths occurred over the study period, including 3602 (11%) in people from minority ethnic backgrounds, with a mean age of death of 43·3 years (SD 17·0, range 13-96). Almost all minority ethnic groups had a lower rate of suicide than the White British majority, apart from individuals who identified as being from a Mixed heritage background or White Gypsy or Irish Travellers. In females who identified as Mixed White and Caribbean, the suicide IRR was 1·79 (95% CI 1·45-2·21) compared with the White British majority; in those who identified as White Gypsy or Irish Travellers, the IRR was 2·26 (1·42-3·58). Rates in males identifying as from these two groups and those identifying as White Irish were similar to the White British majority. Compared with the non-migrant population, migrants had a lower rate of suicide regardless of ethnicity, but in the descendant population, people from a Mixed ethnicity background had a higher risk of suicide than the White British majority.

INTERPRETATION: There are ethnic disparities in suicide mortality in England and Wales, but the reasons for this are unclear. The higher rate in previously overlooked minority ethnic groups warrants further attention.

FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

PMID:39025632 | DOI:10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00184-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Suicide in individuals with eating disorders who had sought mental health treatment in England: a national retrospective cohort study

Lancet Psychiatry. 2024 Aug;11(8):592-600. doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00143-3.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Although studies have suggested a high risk of suicide in people with eating disorders, most studies have focused on suicidal ideation and attempts. There is little research on the characteristics of people with eating disorders who died by suicide, nor investigation of trends over time. We aimed to compare the characteristics of patients with eating disorders who died by suicide versus patients with other mental health diagnoses who died by suicide in England and to examine the trends in rates.

METHODS: In this national retrospective cohort study, data on all people (aged ≥10 years) who died by suicide in England, UK, between Jan 1, 1997, and Dec 31, 2021, while under the care (within the previous 12 months) of mental health services were obtained from the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health (NCISH), in which clinical information is collected via a questionnaire completed by the mental health professional responsible for the patient’s care. Incidence of suicide in, and demographic, clinical, and treatment characteristics of, patients with a diagnosis of eating disorder (as recorded by the treating clinician) who died by suicide were compared with patients with other mental health diagnoses who died by suicide within the same timeframe using univariable logistic regression analysis. People with related lived experience were involved in the study design, implementation, interpretation, and writing of the manuscript.

FINDINGS: Of 119 446 people for whom NCISH were notified of dying by suicide in England, 30 795 were under the recent care of mental health services, of whom 30 246 had known diagnoses and were included in analyses. Of these individuals, 10 373 (34%) were female and 19 873 (66%) were male; 2236 (8%) were of minority ethnicity; 382 (1%) had a diagnosis of eating disorder and 29 864 (99%) had another mental health diagnosis. Compared with patients with other mental health diagnoses who died by suicide, patients with eating disorders were younger (median age 33 years [range 15-90] vs 45 years [10-100]), more often female (343 [90%] female and 39 [10%] male in the eating disorders group; 10 030 [34%] female and 19 834 [66%] male in the other diagnoses group), and less likely to have evidence of conventional risk factors for suicide such as living alone (odds ratio [OR] 0·68, 95% CI 0·55-0·84). 22 (6%) of 382 were from a minority ethnic group. Patients with an eating disorder were characterised by a greater clinical complexity (eg, self-harm [OR 2·31, 95% CI 1·78-3·00], comorbidity [9·79, 6·81-14·1], and longer duration of illness [1·95, 1·56-2·43]), and were more likely to have died following overdoses (2·00, 1·62-2·45) than patients with other diagnoses. Childhood abuse (52 [37%] of 140) and domestic violence (18 [20%] of 91) were common in patients with eating disorders. Similar to patients with other diagnoses, most (244 [75%] of 326) of those with eating disorders who died by suicide were rated as low risk by clinicians at last contact. The number of suicide deaths in patients with eating disorders rose between 1997 and 2021 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·03, 95% CI 1·02-1·05; p<0·0001), but rates fell when accounting for the greater number of patients entering mental health services (IRR 0·97, 0·95-1·00; p=0·033).

INTERPRETATION: This study was focused on people who sought help from mental health services. It did not consider subtypes of eating disorders or include a control group, but it does highlight possible areas for intervention. The comprehensive provision of evidence-based treatment for eating disorders and underlying conditions to address the clinical complexity in these patients might help to reduce suicide. Recognising limitations in clinical risk assessment, addressing early life experiences and current adversities, and appropriate prescribing might also be of benefit. Suicide prevention must remain a priority for eating disorder services and mental health care more widely.

FUNDING: The Healthcare Quality Improvement Partnership.

PMID:39025631 | DOI:10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00143-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Hiding in plain sight: ethnic and migrant variation in suicide

Lancet Psychiatry. 2024 Aug;11(8):577-578. doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00218-9.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:39025625 | DOI:10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00218-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Suicide in patients with eating disorders: lessons to learn

Lancet Psychiatry. 2024 Aug;11(8):574-575. doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00181-0.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:39025624 | DOI:10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00181-0

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Quantifying uncertainty in trans-membrane stresses and moments in simulation

Methods Enzymol. 2024;701:83-122. doi: 10.1016/bs.mie.2024.04.008. Epub 2024 May 17.

ABSTRACT

The lateral stress profile of a lipid bilayer constitutes a valuable link between molecular simulation and mesoscopic elastic theory. Even though it is frequently calculated in simulations, its statistical precision (or that of observables derived from it) is often left unspecified. This omission can be problematic, as uncertainties are prerequisite to assessing statistical significance. In this chapter, we provide a comprehensive yet accessible overview of the statistical error analysis for the lateral stress profile. We detail two relatively simple but powerful techniques for generating error bars: block-averaging and bootstrapping. Combining these methods allows us to reliably estimate uncertainties, even in the presence of both temporal and spatial correlations, which are ubiquitous in simulation data. We illustrate these techniques with simple examples like stress moments, but also more complex observables such as the location of stress profile extrema and the monolayer neutral surface.

PMID:39025584 | DOI:10.1016/bs.mie.2024.04.008

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Characterization of domain formation in complex membranes

Methods Enzymol. 2024;701:1-46. doi: 10.1016/bs.mie.2024.03.006. Epub 2024 Apr 4.

ABSTRACT

A widely known property of lipid membranes is their tendency to undergo a separation into disordered (Ld) and ordered (Lo) domains. This impacts the local structure of the membrane relevant for the physical (e.g., enhanced electroporation) and biological (e.g., protein sorting) significance of these regions. The increase in computing power, advancements in simulation software, and more detailed information about the composition of biological membranes shifts the study of these domains into the focus of classical molecular dynamics simulations. In this chapter, we present a versatile yet robust analysis pipeline that can be easily implemented and adapted for a wide range of lipid compositions. It employs Gaussian-based Hidden Markov Models to predict the hidden order states of individual lipids by describing their structure through the area per lipid and the average SCC order parameters per acyl chain. Regions of the membrane with a high correlation between ordered lipids are identified by employing the Getis-Ord local spatial autocorrelation statistic on a Voronoi tessellation of the lipids. As an example, the approach is applied to two distinct systems at a coarse-grained resolution, demonstrating either a strong tendency towards phase separation (1,2-dipalmitoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DPPC), 1,2-dilinoleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DIPC), cholesterol) or a weak tendency toward phase separation (1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (POPC), 1-palmitoyl-2-docosahexaenoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (PUPC), cholesterol). Explanations of the steps are complemented by coding examples written in Python, providing both a comprehensive understanding and practical guidance for a seamless integration of the workflow into individual projects.

PMID:39025569 | DOI:10.1016/bs.mie.2024.03.006

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

DNA profiling in India: Addressing issues of sample preservation, databasing, marker selection, & statistical approaches

Sci Justice. 2024 Jul;64(4):389-396. doi: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.05.003. Epub 2024 May 23.

ABSTRACT

DNA technology is the gold standard with respect to the identification of individuals from biological evidence. The technology offers the convenience of a universally similar approach and methodology for analysis across the globe. However, the technology has not realised its full potential in India due to the lack of a DNA database and lacunae in sample collection and preservation from the scene of crime and victims (especially those of sexual assault). Further, statistical interpretation of DNA results is non-existent in the majority of cases. Though the latest technologies and developments in the field of DNA analysis are being adopted and implemented,very little has been enacted practically to improve optimise sample collection and preservation. This article discusses current casework scenarios that highlight the pitfalls and ambiguous areas in the field of DNA analysis, especially with respect DNA databases, sampling, andstatistical approaches to genetic data analysis. Possible solutions and mitigation measures are suggested.

PMID:39025564 | DOI:10.1016/j.scijus.2024.05.003

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Contextual bias by Forensic Document Examination trainees: An empirical study from China

Sci Justice. 2024 Jul;64(4):360-366. doi: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.05.002. Epub 2024 May 11.

ABSTRACT

The impact of contextual bias has been repeatedly demonstrated across forensic domains; however, research on this topic in China is scarce. To examine the prevalence of contextual bias in pattern feature-comparison disciplines, we conducted an experiment involving 24 forensic document examination students. The aim was to determine whether knowledge of different contextual information influenced their forensic decision-making. Participants were divided into different context groups and tasked with examining whether questioned signatures with ambiguous features matched reference signatures. The results of independent-samples t-tests for their decision score data in the two context groups exhibited a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05, Cohen’s d > 0.8). Moreover, the submitted forensic reports by participants disclosed a biased evaluation of handwriting features. These findings show how contextual information can bias forensic decision-making in handwriting examination. Context management with complementary strategies such as case triage, cognitive training and decision-making transparency must be implemented to minimize bias in handwriting examination.

PMID:39025561 | DOI:10.1016/j.scijus.2024.05.002

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A community case detection tool to promote help-seeking for mental health care among children and adolescents in Ugandan refugee settlements: a stepped wedge cluster randomised trial

Lancet Child Adolesc Health. 2024 Aug;8(8):571-579. doi: 10.1016/S2352-4642(24)00130-5.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Strategies to promote mental health care help-seeking among children are needed, especially in low-income and middle-income countries and in complex settings. The aim of this trial was to compare a vignette-based, community-level, proactive case detection tool (CCDT) against standard awareness raising for promoting mental health help-seeking among children and adolescents.

METHODS: This stepped wedge cluster randomised trial was conducted in the Bidi Bidi, Kyaka II, Kyangwali, Omugo, and Rhino refugee settlements in Uganda. Community gatekeepers received a 2-day training session on using the CCDT to proactively detect children with mental health concerns and encourage children (or their caregivers) to use the mental health-care service run by Transcultural Psychosocial Organization Uganda. At baseline, organisations implemented routine detection or mental health awareness-raising activities. At cross-over to CCDT implementation, gatekeepers used the tool in their daily activities. The primary outcome was mental health-care service use by children and adolescents. Child population size estimates at the zone level were not available. Therefore, service use was calculated using total population size. We report the effect of CCDT implementation as an incidence rate ratio (IRR), which we produced from a model that accounts for calendar time, exposure time, and person-time. IRRs were estimated for the analysis of effect over time in the per-protocol and intention-to-treat populations. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN19056780.

FINDINGS: 28 administrative zones were selected for trial participation by October, 2021. Between Jan 1, and Nov 8, 2022, seven clusters of four zones sequentially crossed over from routine care to CCDT implementation in 1-month intervals. The CCDT was implemented by 177 trained community gatekeepers. In 9 months, 2385 children visited a mental health-care service; of these, 1118 (47%) were girls and 1267 (53%) were boys (mean age 12·18 years [SD 4.03]). 1998 children made a first or re-entry visit to a service; of these, 937 (47%) were girls and 1061 (53%) were boys (mean age 12·08 years [SD 4·06]). Compared to standard awareness-raising activities, CCDT implementation was associated with an increase in mental health-care service use in the first month after implementation (20·91-fold change [95% CI 12·87-33·99]). Despite a slight decline in service use over time in both the CCDT and pre-CCDT zones, CCDT zones maintained a time-average 16·89-fold increase (95% CI 8·15-34·99) in mental health service use.

INTERPRETATION: The CCDT enabled community gatekeepers to increase mental health-care service use by children and adolescents. Vignette-based strategies rooted in the community could become a valuable contribution towards reducing the mental health-care gap among children, especially when accompanied by accessible mental health-care services.

FUNDING: Sint Antonius Stichting Projects.

TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

PMID:39025558 | DOI:10.1016/S2352-4642(24)00130-5

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Mental health help-seeking by children and adolescents in Uganda’s refugee settlements

Lancet Child Adolesc Health. 2024 Aug;8(8):546-547. doi: 10.1016/S2352-4642(24)00166-4.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:39025555 | DOI:10.1016/S2352-4642(24)00166-4