Category: Statistics

J Environ Radioact. 2026 May 5;297:108024. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2026.108024. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The ²¹⁰Pb dating technique is widely applied for reconstructing sediment accumulation in aquatic environments. However, its reliability depends strongly on appropriate age model and independent validation. In this study, previously reported sedimentation rates for the highly dynamic coastal environment of Sorsogon Bay, Philippines, derived using the Constant Initial Concentration (CIC) model, were reassessed to validate and improve chronological robustness. Guided by statistical and physical assumptions, and supported by the results of CF:CS and CRS age model, the evaluation of regression intervals of excess ²¹⁰Pb activity concentration profiles, the average sedimentation rates of the three sediment cores SO-01 (CAS), SO-03 (CAD), and SO-07 (SAM) were determined to be the best fit. Results of Mann-Whitney U test revealed the influence of natural disturbances, such as eruptions of Mt. Bulusan and major typhoon events that hit the Bicol Region, to sediment characteristics particularly dry bulk density (DBD) and calculated mass accumulation rate (MAR). This further strengthen the qualitative analysis of peak association of DBD and MAR to the documented natural disturbances. This study demonstrates the importance of multi-proxy validation and Mann-Whitney U test in strengthening ²¹⁰Pb-derived chronologies, which are critical for a more robust foundation for investigating land-use change, coastal evolution, pollution histories, climate variability, and other natural and anthropogenic drivers of sediment dynamics over the past century.

PMID:42092209 | DOI:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2026.108024

Sci Rep. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-51981-2. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The malicious URLs have been a constant threat to cybersecurity because hackers are constantly creating phishing, malware, spam, and defacement links that resemble authentic Web layouts and bypass static security measures. Despite very promising results of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models in URL classification, the effectiveness of these models is usually limited by high dimensional spaces of features that have redundant and irrelevant qualities, which leads to increased computation costs and potentially less generalization ability. To cope with this, this study will present a wrapper-based Bat Algorithm (BA) feature selection model to determine small and discriminative subsets of features in detecting malicious URLs. The bio-inspired metaheuristic BA offers a good tradeoff of exploration and exploitation in high dimensional optimization issues and thus is useful in feature subset selection. The proposed BA model is tested on ensemble ML (XGBoost, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, CatBoost and LightGBM) and DL (CNN, RNN, LSTM and CNN-LSTM) architectures with two datasets the multi-class ISCX-URL-2016 dataset and the more recent URL Phishing (2026) dataset. Experiments results indicate that BA has a significant dimensionality reduction: It reduces original feature space on ISCX-URL-2016 by 51.90% in the case of Defacement, by 67.09% in the case of Malware, by 49.37% in the case of Phishing, by 59.49% in the case of Spam, and 45.91% in the case of Phishing on URL Phishing (2026). This reduction notwithstanding, BA shows consistent improvements in the classification of both datasets. BA-enhanced LightGBM had the best overall results of all the tested models, with an accuracy of 99.92% on ISCX-URL-2016 and 98.17% on URL Phishing (2026), and high values of ROC-AUC and good computational efficiency. A statistical analysis also supports the fact that the improvements noticed are significant. Altogether, the proposed BA-based feature selection model is an efficient, scalable, and reliable solution to malicious URL detection intelligent, with good possibilities of being implemented into real-world systems in terms of cybersecurity.

PMID:42092159 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-026-51981-2

Nature. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-10443-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Cognitive flexibility refers to the adaptive neural processes that adjust learned behaviours as circumstances shift, supporting optimal decision-making and behavioural control. This includes the capacity to modify specific behaviours as the contingency between cues and rewards degrades. Across species^1-4, the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) has a well-established role in controlling contingency degradation⁵; however, the precise neural circuit mechanisms underlying this cognitive process remain unclear. To address this gap, we developed a quantitative model of cognitive flexibility that incorporates a meta-learning parameter into an established reward prediction error learning model^6,7. Our meta-reward prediction error model significantly improves accurate representation of mouse cue-evoked licking behaviour in response to degraded or enhanced cue-reward associations. Using longitudinal two-photon calcium imaging and single-cell holographic optogenetics, we found that a subset of neurons in the mPFC specifically encode the contingency degradation in a significant and causal manner. Recognizing that behavioural flexibility probably requires interactions between the mPFC and canonical reward learning circuitry, we then examined how mPFC neural signalling during contingency degradation interacts with the ventral tegmental area (VTA)-a critical hub for reward processing⁸. Our imaging and optogenetics data show that mPFC sends this signal to VTA, with most mPFC→VTA neurons reflecting this transmission, and that selective optogenetic stimulation of these ensembles accelerates contingency degradation. These findings reveal how prefrontal circuits facilitate flexibility, selectively halting learned behaviours through connections with subcortical reward networks.

PMID:42092148 | DOI:10.1038/s41586-026-10443-5

Nature. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-10477-9. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The existence of abundant post-starburst and quiescent galaxies just about 1-2 Gyr after the Big Bang challenges our current model of galaxy evolution^1-3. Cosmological simulations suggest that quasar feedback is likely the most promising mechanism responsible for this rapid quenching^4-6. Here we report a high detection rate (6/27) of exceptionally fast and powerful galaxy-scale outflows traced by [O III] emission in z ≈ 5-6 luminous quasars as shown by the James Webb Space Telescope, with velocity up to about 8,400 km s^-1 and order-of-magnitude kinetic energy outflow rates up to around 260% of the observed quasar bolometric luminosities. This fraction is >3.9 and 8.8 times that in comparison samples at z ≈ 1.5-3.5 and z < 1, respectively. These extreme outflows are comparable to or even faster than the most rapid [O III] outflows reported at z ≲ 3, and could reach the circumgalactic medium or even the intergalactic medium. The average kinetic energy outflow rate of our sample is more than 2 dex higher than that of the lower-redshift comparison samples. The substantially higher frequency of outflows with energetics well above the threshold for negative feedback in our sample strongly suggests that quasar feedback plays an important part in efficiently quenching and regulating early massive galaxies.

PMID:42092143 | DOI:10.1038/s41586-026-10477-9

Nature. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-10459-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

A major scientific drive is to characterize the protein-coding genome, which is a primary basis for studying human health. But the fundamental question remains of what has been missed in previous analyses. Over the past decade, the translation of non-canonical open reading frames (ncORFs) has been observed across human cell types and disease states^1-3, with major implications for biomedical science. However, a key gap in knowledge has been which ncORFs produce small microproteins or alternative protein molecules that contribute to the human proteome. Here we report the collaborative efforts of the TransCODE Consortium⁴ to produce a consensus landscape of protein-level evidence for ncORFs. We show that about 25% of a set of 7,264 ncORFs gives rise to detectable peptides in a large-scale analysis of 95,520 proteomics experiments. We develop an annotation framework for ncORF-encoded microproteins as human proteins and codify the new conceptual model of ‘peptideins’ as microproteins that have indeterminate potential as functional proteins. To probe the biological implications of peptideins, we create an evolutionary analysis approach, termed ORF relative branch length (ORBL), and determine that evolutionary constraint is common and associates with observation of ncORF-derived peptides. We then characterize a pan-essential cellular phenotype for one peptidein from the OLMALINC long non-coding RNA. Overall, we generate public research tools supported by GENCODE and PeptideAtlas and advance biomedical discovery for understudied components of the human proteome.

PMID:42092140 | DOI:10.1038/s41586-026-10459-x

Nature. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-10498-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Stability can be desirable for many natural and social systems. Temporal stability, the invariability of a system over time, can be enhanced by resisting displacement during perturbations, accelerating recovery after them, or both^1-4. Likewise, resilience (sensu proximity to unperturbed levels after a perturbation^5-10) also has components of withstanding (resistance) and recovering after perturbations^11,12. Here we develop and test new predictions for how temporal stability and resilience depend on their resistance and recovery components. We find that temporal stability could often be predicted from resistance, even without information about how quickly the system recovers. By contrast, resilience is predicted to depend at least as much on recovery as on resistance, as in earlier theory^11,12. Using plant productivity data from the world’s longest-running biodiversity experiment, we find that long-term temporal stability, quantified over a quarter century at the ecosystem or species level, is predicted with moderate accuracy from single-year estimates of resistance alone, with only slight improvement by also considering recovery. Resilience was predicted with moderate accuracy by a combination of resistance and recovery at the ecosystem level. We also find that ecosystem drought resistance can be forecasted by monitoring temporal stability before the drought. Our results reveal that long-term temporal stability and short-term resistance may often be predicted from one another and clarify how resistance and recovery can be leveraged to enhance the stability of both natural and managed systems.

PMID:42092138 | DOI:10.1038/s41586-026-10498-4

Sci Rep. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-51831-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This study develops and evaluates a data-leak-safe, monthly forecasting framework for the City of Ekurhuleni, South Africa, covering rainfall and municipal water demand. Here “leak-safe” means that all predictors are built from information that would have been available at the forecast month, with feature engineering, scaling and model validation performed strictly on the training window only. The results are situated within demographic change, addressing the gap in decision-grade monthly forecasts that jointly consider rainfall and municipal demand for planning. Monthly datasets (2011-2025) were cleaned and engineered using past-only features (fixed lags; trailing 3/6/12-month statistics; harmonic month terms; simple trend). Models were trained using MATLAB with 5-fold cross-validation (PCA capped at 95% variance when applied) and benchmarked against persistence, seasonal-naïve, and monthly climatology on a sealed test window. For rainfall, a bagged-trees ensemble achieved strong generalization (test RMSE ≈ 9.13 mm; R² ≈ 0.96), capturing wet-season peaks (Dec-Feb) and dry-season minima (Jun-Aug). For demand, a Matérn-5/2 Gaussian Process delivered positive out-of-sample skill (test RMSE ≈ 17.05 ML/day; R² ≈ 0.76; MAPE ≈ 1.39%), tracking month-to-month movements with mild amplitude damping. A 36-month recursive rollout indicates stable consumption within a narrow band (approximately 995-1025 ML/day) and a seasonal rainfall envelope consistent with historical patterns. Census-based trends, growth in formal residential areas, and increased in-dwelling/yard tap access support a rising, more metered base load with localized variability. The synthesis suggests prioritizing reliability, active leakage control, targeted equity upgrades, and routine re-forecasting over large capacity expansion, while using rainfall-conditioned scenarios and uncertainty bands for procurement and risk planning. The contribution is a reproducible, decision-grade pipeline that pairs rigorous baselines with actionable 36-month forecasts for urban water resources management.

PMID:42092128 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-026-51831-1

Sci Rep. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-50823-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) is a key auxin involved in bud activation and early vegetative growth, but its effects in plum propagation may vary with cultivar and concentration. This study evaluated the influence of pre-budding IAA application on sprouting behaviour and selected morphological traits of three plum (Prunus domestica L.) cultivars, namely ‘Fazle Manani’, ‘Santa Rosa’, and ‘Red Beauty’, grafted onto Mariana rootstock. Bud sticks were soaked for 12 h in four IAA concentrations (300, 600, 900, and 1200 mg/L) and a control prior to T-budding. The experiment was arranged in a two-factor factorial randomized complete block design with three replications. Data were collected on days to sprouting, sprouting percentage, plant height, number of branches per budding, number of leaves per budding, budding diameter, and internode length, and were analysed using two-way ANOVA followed by Tukey’s HSD test at the 5% level. Days to sprouting were significantly affected by IAA concentration, cultivar, and their interaction, demonstrating cultivar-dependent responses to IAA treatment. Earlier sprouting was observed in ‘Fazle Manani’ at 300 mg/L, in ‘Santa Rosa’ at 600 mg/L, and in ‘Red Beauty’ at 600-900 mg/L. Plant height and number of branches per budding were also significantly influenced by the interaction between IAA concentration and cultivar. In contrast, sprouting percentage was affected by cultivar only, whereas number of leaves per budding, budding diameter, and internode length were not significantly affected by IAA concentration, cultivar, or their interaction. These results indicate that pre-budding IAA treatment can improve certain propagation and early growth traits in plum, but the response is both cultivar-specific and trait-dependent. Therefore, the use of IAA in plum propagation should be optimized for individual cultivars rather than applied uniformly.

PMID:42092121 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-026-50823-5

Evid Based Dent. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41432-026-01221-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This umbrella review was planned to synthesize pooled evidence on the efficacy of curcumin in alleviating clinical manifestations of OSMF.

METHODS: The protocol of this review was registered at the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) and the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) guidelines were extensively followed. Multiple databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and Embase, were searched to retrieve relevant literature. Data was extracted using a systematically designed data extraction form. An overlap assessment was performed using the GROOVE Tool. A meta-analysis (using a random effects model) was performed to estimate the overall efficacy of curcumin in managing OSMF conditions. Quality assessment for included studies was also carried out using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews-2 (AMSTAR 2) tool.

RESULTS: A total of six SR (n = 1) and SRMAs (n = 5) were included in this review. Overlap assessment found a higher level of overlap (19.39%) of primary studies across included studies. Meta-analysis revealed statistically significant results in improving burning sensation within intervention group [standardized mean difference (SMD = -2.66 (95% CI: -3.56 to -1.77); Z-score = 5.83, p-value < 0.001]. However, for other clinical symptoms, results remained statistically non-significant with variable heterogeneity (0% to 95%). A critical appraisal of the included studies demonstrated a high to moderate level (66.66%) of confidence in the overall evidence presented by the included studies.

CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that curcumin offers limited benefits while managing OSMF conditions, especially in the early stages. Its optimal role may be as an adjunct in multimodal management strategies rather than a standalone therapy.

PMID:42092112 | DOI:10.1038/s41432-026-01221-3

J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2026 May 6. doi: 10.1038/s41370-026-00903-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The physical school environment is a key factor influencing illness-related absences, particularly those caused by infectious diseases transmitted through air and surfaces. Previous studies, often underpowered, have been unable to conclusively quantify the impacts of improved classroom indoor environmental quality (IEQ) on illness-related absences, while also accounting for sociodemographic factors, such as gender and ethnicity.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the impacts of district-wide renovations on student absences due to specific illness types, based on exceptional district data on daily absenteeism and socioeconomic factors, covering 1217 school days and 45,428 students.

METHODS: Between 2016 and 2021, over 45 schools in a district located in a mountain west region of United States underwent comprehensive renovations, which included upgrading heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. At the same time, cleaning protocols were developed to reduce surface contamination. Data from pre- and post-renovation monitoring included classroom temperature, relative humidity, and surface biocontamination levels. Carbon dioxide levels were used to estimate ventilation rates, while temperature and relative humidity were used to estimate absolute humidity.

RESULTS: Independent associations between illness-specific absences and school renovations, along with several IEQ parameters, were quantified. Based on the results, over one-third of absences due to respiratory illnesses could be reduced by keeping school facilities up to date and adhering to recommended standards for ventilation. Increased frequency of cleaning could help to reduce absences due to gastrointestinal illnesses. Additional reductions could be achieved by maintaining higher humidity and cooler temperatures in classrooms.

SIGNIFICANCE: These findings highlight the importance of maintaining good IEQ in schools, resulting in fewer absences from infectious diseases.

IMPACT: The study is based on a large-scale natural experiment, incorporating daily student-level absence data specifying illness types and background information for all students in the district, collected over seven school years – the longest follow-up period to date, to our knowledge. These data, combined with state-of-the-art IEQ monitoring conducted before and after the renovation of 45 schools, provides superior statistical power to quantify the impacts of renovations and how IEQ parameters may partially explain their effects on illness-related absences. The findings can inform policies at the school, district, and national levels, guiding renovations, maintenance and operational practices aimed at reducing airborne pathogens and surface contamination, and reducing illness-related absenteeism in schools.

PMID:42092110 | DOI:10.1038/s41370-026-00903-5