Nebraska high school baseball statistics leaders

Nebraska high school baseball statistics leaders statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus
Nebraska high school baseball statistics leaders statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Nebraska high school baseball statistics leaders, as published in The Nevin Manimala World-Herald on April 21.

Batting average

Class A: Callahan, Fremont Bergan, .600; Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, .592; Kaslon, Columbus, .515; Guevara, Omaha Bryan, .500; Olague, Omaha Bryan, .480; Evans, Grand Island, .475; T. Gomes, Millard West, .462; Nelson, Millard North, .442; Scruggs, Papillion-La Vista, .436; Barnett, Papillion-La Vista, .434; Tlatenchi, Omaha South, .421; Tillman, Elkhorn South, .417; Reinert, Omaha Westside, .417; Glause, Fremont Bergan, .417; Wessel, Millard South, .412; Ripa, Papillion-La Vista, .409; Laney, Omaha Creighton Prep, .405.

Class B: Campbell, Falls City, .618; Adams, Waverly, .568; Kinnaman, Auburn, .500; Alitz, Omaha Roncalli, .500; Allen, Arlington, .500; Warner, Auburn, .484; Espinoza, Ralston, .471; Matthewson, Platteview, .461; Macdonald, Blair, .455; Burnley, Norris, .452; Ruhl, Norris, .450; Wageman, Bennington, .444; Steinmeyer, Waverly, .440; Laux, Hastings, .439; McCoy, Raymond Central, .435; Roesler, Platteview, .429; French, Gretna, .429; Craig, Falls City, .429; Essink, Bennington, .429; Young, Elkhorn, .424; Babe, Platteview, .414.

Class A: Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 29; Tlatenchi, Omaha South, 24; Barnett, Papillion-La Vista, 23; Reinert, Omaha Westside, 20; Nelson, Millard North, 19; Regier, Lincoln Southwest, 19; W. Reetz, Elkhorn South, 19; Scruggs, Papillion-La Vista, 19; Evans, Grand Island, 19; Loseke, Papillion-La Vista, 19; Dunham, Omaha Creighton Prep, 18; Blossom, Omaha Creighton Prep, 18; Rivas, Omaha South, 18; Everitt, Lincoln Southwest, 18; Anglim, Papillion-La Vista, 18; Kaslon, Columbus, 17; Hoeke, Elkhorn South, 17; Laney, Omaha Creighton Prep, 17; Botaletto, Millard North, 17; McVey, Lincoln Southwest, 17.

Class B: Adams, Waverly, 21; Campbell, Falls City, 21; Bredemeier, Falls City, 19; Craig, Falls City, 18; Laux, Hastings, 18; Ruhl, Norris, 18; Argo, Norris, 18; Hotovy, Elkhorn, 17; Frahm, Elkhorn, 16; Sailors, Ralston, 16; Stevens, Omaha Skutt, 16; Warner, Auburn, 15; Gordon, Omaha Skutt, 15; Gutchow, Elkhorn, 14; Jordon, Waverly, 14; Young, Elkhorn, 14; Sudbeck, Omaha Skutt, 13; Oswald, Omaha Skutt, 13; Mathewson, Platteview, 12; Wageman, Bennington, 12; Roesler, Platteview, 12; Essink, Bennington, 12; Babe, Platteview, 12; Hoffman, Beatrice, 12.

Class A: Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 25; Gish, Millard South, 24; Laney, Omaha Creighton Prep, 21; Schanaman, Grand Island, 20; Gilin, Millard South, 19; Scruggs, Papillion-La Vista, 19; Anglim, Papillion-La Vista, 18; McVey, Lincoln Southwest, 18; Regier, Lincoln Southwest, 16; Kaslon, Columbus, 16; Anderson, Millard West, 15; Koesters, Omaha Central, 15; Richter, Omaha Creighton Prep, 14; Tlatenchi, Omaha South, 14; W. Reetz, Elkhorn South, 14; Evans, Grand Island, 14; Jennings, Elkhorn South, 14; Blossom, Omaha Creighton Prep, 13; Svoboda, Millard South, 12; Cain, Omaha Westside, 12; Tillman, Elkhorn South, 12.

Class B: Argo, Norris, 28; Campbell, Falls City, 20; Adams, Waverly, 15; Hoffman, Beatrice, 15; Mathewson, Platteview, 15; Schroeder, Hastings, 15; Kozal, Waverly, 14; Oswald, Omaha Skutt, 14; Gutchow, Elkhorn, 13; Stevens, Omaha Skutt, 11; Kohout, Norris, 11; Warner, Auburn, 10; Aho, Plattsmouth, 10; Steinmeyer, Waverly, 10; Christo, Elkhorn, 10.

Class A: Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 23; Burnham, Grand Island, 22; Svoboda, Millard South, 21; Barnett, Papillion-La Vista, 21; Diederich, Elkhorn South, 18; Loseke, Papillion-La Vista, 17; Laney, Omaha Creighton Prep, 16; Gilin, Millard South, 16; Allbery, Omaha Creighton Prep, 14; Blossom, Omaha Creighton Prep, 14; Dunham, Omaha Creighton Prep, 14; W. Reetz, Elkhorn South, 14; Tlatenchi, Omaha South, 16; Greise, Millard South, 14; Nordhues, Grand Island, 14; Hinton, Millard West, 14; Wallace, Millard South, 14; Gish, Millard South, 13; Frederick, Lincoln Southwest, 13; DeLeon, Omaha South 13; Perez, Lincoln Southwest, 13; Martinez, Omaha South, 12; Reinert, Omaha Westside, 12; Spencer, Omaha Central, 12; Schanaman, Grand Island, 12; Palmer, Columbus, 12; Davis, Omaha North, 12; Mustard, Columbus, 12.

Class B: Young, Elkhorn, 16; Wageman, Bennington, 16; Laux, Hastings, 16; Schultz, Norris, 16; Bredemeier, Falls City, 15; Frahm, Elkhorn, 14; Adams, Waverly, 14; Argo, Norris, 14; Kohout, Norris, 13; Hotovy, Elkhorn, 13; Overkamp, Ralston, 13; Craig, Falls City, 13; French, Gretna, 13; Daro, Omaha Skutt, 12; Gubbles, Waverly, 12; Stevens, Omaha Skutt, 12; C. Lynam, Platteview, 12; Warner, Auburn, 12.

Class A: Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 8; Anderson, Omaha Central, 7; Peterson, Elkhorn South, 7; Evans, Grand Island, 7; Dalton, Millard North, 6; Fogelstrom, Omaha North, 5; Everitt, Lincoln Southwest, 5; Richter, Omaha Creighton Prep, 4; Reinert, Omaha Westside, 4; Stegman, Omaha Westside, 4; Scruggs, Papillion-La Vista, 4; Martinez, Omaha South, 4; Flammang, Omaha South, 4; Valle, Omaha South, 4; Greise, Millard South, 4; Randall, Lincoln Southwest, 4; Bohling, Lincoln Southwest, 4; Regier, Lincoln Southwest, 4; Mercier, Lincoln High, 4; Curran, Omaha Westside, 4; Mueller, Columbus, 4; Anglim, Papillion-La Vista, 4; Feekin, Papillion-La Vista, 4.

Class B: Jordon, Waverly, 6; Hoffman, Beatrice, 6; Warner, Auburn, 5; White, Beatrice, 5; Steinmeyer, Waverly, 4; Hotovy, Elkhorn, 4; Sailors, Ralston, 4; Herrmann, Gretna, 4; French, Gretna, 4; Buttgen, Gretna, 4; Ruhl, Norris, 4; Hesser, Wahoo, 4.

Class A: Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 3; Greise, Millard South, 3; Gish, Millard South, 3; Leiferman, Omaha Westside, 3; McClanahan, Papillion-La Vista South, 3; Tlatenchi, Omaha South, 2; Anderson, Millard West, 2; Dunham, Omaha Creighton Prep, 2; Krzemien, Omaha Creighton Prep, 2; Fogelstrom, Omaha North, 2; Evans, Grand Island, 2; Ripa, Papillion-La Vista, 2; Reinert, Lincoln East, 2; Peterson, Elkhorn South, 2; Spurgeon, Bellevue East, 2; Barnett, Papillion-La Vista, 2.

Class B: Krause, Seward, 3; Oswald, Omaha Skutt, 2; Hotovy, Elkhorn, 2; Schultz, Norris, 2; Mason, Gretna, 2; Herrmann, Gretna, 2; French, Gretna, 2.

Class A: Gish, Millard South, 5; W. Reetz, Elkhorn South, 3; Schanaman, Grand Island, 3; Gilin, Millard South, 3; Richter, Lincoln Northeast, 2; Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 2; Anglim, Papillion-La Vista, 2; Perez, Lincoln Southwest, 2; Regier, Lincoln Southwest, 2; Diederich, Elkhorn South, 2.

Class B: Kozal, Waverly, 5; Argo, Norris, 5; Adams, Waverly, 3; Campbell, Falls City, 3; Mathewson, Platteview, 2; Christo, Elkhorn, 2; Kohout, Norris, 2; Schultz, Norris, 2; Aho, Plattsmouth, 2.

Stolen bases

Class A: Flammang, Omaha South, 15; Valle, Omaha South, 14; Tlatenchi, Omaha South, 12; Jennings, Elkhorn South, 12; Black, Elkhorn South, 12; Hoeke, Elkhorn South, 11; Palmer, Columbus, 11; Svoboda, Millard South, 11; Pavon, Bellevue East, 10; W. Reetz, Elkhorn South, 10; Moeller, Lincoln Southwest, 9; Frederick, Lincoln Southwest, 9; Wallace, Millard South, 9; Diederich, Elkhorn South, 8; Donohoe, Millard South, 8; Burnham, Grand Island, 8.

Class B: Wageman, Bennington, 18; Schultz, Norris, 10; Adams, Waverly, 10; Hotovy, Elkhorn, 8; Heig, Ralston, 7; Bredemeier, Falls City, 7; French, Gretna, 6; Lewandowski, Omaha Gross, 6; Daro, Omaha Skutt, 6; Brown, Waverly, 6; Urbach, Ralston, 6.

Class A: Waugh, Omaha Burke, 5; Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 4; Povich, Bellevue West, 4; Munson, Omaha Burke, 4; Obrecht, Millard North, 4; Bunz, Elkhorn South, 4; Perry, Millard South, 3; Gomes, Millard West, 3; Kroeger, Omaha Northwest, 3; Perales, Omaha South, 3; Renken, Millard South, 3; Pavon, Bellevue East, 3; Holzworth, Omaha Westside, 3; Staebell, Millard South, 3; Parsonage, Omaha Westside, 3; Schanaman, Grand Island, 3; Coleman, Lincoln Southwest, 3; Hunzeker, Lincoln Southwest, 3; Rose, Grand Island, 3.

Class B: Leinen, Omaha Concordia, 4; Argo, Norris, 4; Silvain, Omaha Roncalli, 3; Kinnaman, Auburn, 3; Roesler, Platteview, 3; Prososki, Bennington, 3; Craig, Falls City, 3; Stebbing, Wahoo, 3.

Class A: Waugh, Omaha Burke, 0.00; Gomes, Millard West, 0.27; Povich, Bellevue West, 0.27; Young, Millard West, 0.39; Munson, Omaha Burke, 0.49; Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 0.56; Rose, Grand Island, 0.65; Perry, Millard West, 0.67; Pavon, Bellevue East, 0.72; Staebell, Millard South, 0.74; Kroeger, Omaha Northwest, 0.95; Parsonage, Omaha Westside, 0.98; Savine, Bellevue West, 1.00.

Class B: Rolenc, Seward, 0.00; Kanzmeier, Omaha Concordia, 0.00; Prososki, Bennington, 0.00; Wald, Douglas County West, 0.00; Wesely, Omaha Skutt, 0.31; Gorczyca, Omaha Roncalli, 0.49; Wibbels, Hastings, 0.70; Leinen, Omaha Concordia, 0.77; Krause, Seward, 0.78; Gatto, Hastings, 0.84; Macdonald, Blair, 0.91; Craig, Falls City, 0.91; Kinnaman, Auburn, 1.07; Stebbing, Wahoo, 1.12.

Strikeouts

Class A: Bunz, Elkhorn South, 47; Mercier, Lincoln High, 42; Povich, Bellevue West, 41; Phillips, Omaha Creighton Prep, 40; Obrecht, Millard North, 39; Perry, Millard South, 38; Richter, Lincoln Northeast, 36; Snyder, Lincoln East, 35; Gomes, Millard West, 34; Pavon, Bellevue East, 27; Lenhart, Omaha Westside, 26; Olague, Omaha Bryan, 25; Eby, Bellevue West, 24; Staebell, Millard South, 24; Sintek, Fremont Bergan, 24; Coleman, Lincoln Southwest, 24; Petersen, Papillion-La Vista South, 23; Zetterman, Lincoln Southwest, 23.

Class B: Argo, Norris, 50; Wibbels, Hastings, 45; Leinen, Omaha Concordia, 44; Stebbing, Wahoo, 35; Sailors, Ralston, 31; Milam, Falls City, 29; Vater, Beatrice, 28; Shaw, Hastings, 28; Kniefl, Wayne, 27; Gordon, Omaha Skutt, 26; Kent, Crete, 26; Riecken, Arlington, 25; Macdonald, Blair, 25; Kinnaman, Auburn, 25; Hoffman, Beatrice, 25; Collins, Elkhorn Mount Michael, 24; Koch, Arlington, 24; Deboer, Wayne, 24.

Class A: Fritton, Omaha Creighton Prep, 2; Munson, Omaha Burke, 2; Fink, Elkhorn South, 2; Holloway, Bellevue East, 2.

Class B: Koch, Arlington, 2; Renter, Douglas County West, 2.

Sobering statistics: Traffic Safety Commission highlights danger of ‘poly-drug’ driving

Sobering statistics: Traffic Safety Commission highlights danger of 'poly-drug' driving statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus
Sobering statistics: Traffic Safety Commission highlights danger of 'poly-drug' driving statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

In unofficial recognition of “4/20,” marijuana’s unofficial high holiday, the Washington Traffic Safety Commission recently published a number of sobering statistics on traffic-related collisions and fatalities involving the mixture of alcohol and marijuana.

Released Monday, the WTSC report shows that multiple-drug use or “poly-drug” use was the most common type of impairment among Washington drivers who died in traffic collisions from 2008 to 2016. It was double the number of alcohol-only fatal collisions, and five times higher than the number of marijuana-only collisions.

The Nevin Manimala most common combination of drugs, according to the report, was alcohol and marijuana.

“When we talk about, really, the worst thing that can happen on the road, these are the severely impaired individuals here,” said Dr. Staci Hoff, a researcher at the WTSC who authored the report.

Since record keeping began, Hoff said there had been a consistent increase in the number of fatal crashes involving two types of drugs until 2012, when it became the most prevalent type of impairment.

Hoff said the study only involved drivers who had an alcohol or blood test performed after death. Among those, 44 percent were poly-drug drivers, 38 percent were alcohol-only, and 6 percent were marijuana, or THC, only.

The Nevin Manimala most startling statistic, though, was the number of young drivers who, when surveyed, reported that they drove better under the effect of marijuana.

“It’s not like THC and marijuana are innocent,” she said.

Among drivers aged 15 to 20, Hoff said, more than half believed they were better drivers after consuming THC. Only 21 percent of drivers aged 21 to 25 believed that.

Hoff said the greater danger is instances when young people drink alcohol and, after experiencing the effect, try to counteract the buzz with marijuana.

“That’s absolutely the wrong perception,” she said.

Jeff Sevigney, spokesman for the Washington State Patrol office in Eastern Washington, said troopers would be more vigilant Friday afternoon and evening for drivers under the influence.

He said certain holidays naturally bring more impaired drivers to the road.

“Obviously, our senses are much higher during times when we know that folks might be more apt to go out and indulge and have a good time,” he said. “Certainly that’s legal to do. We just hope you do it responsibly and have plans in place prior to festivities.”

Algorithm tool works to silence online chatroom sex predators

An algorithm tool developed by Purdue Polytechnic Institute faculty will help law enforcement filter out and focus on sex offenders most likely to set up face-to-face meetings with child victims.

The Chat Analysis Triage Tool (CATT) was presented last week by principal investigator Kathryn Seigfried-Spellar, assistant professor of computer and information technology, at the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts Conference in Anaheim, California.

Seigfried-Spellar said law enforcement officers are inundated with cases involving the sexual solicitation of minors — some interested in sexual fantasy chats, with others intent on persuading an underage victim into a face-to-face meeting.

CATT allows the officers to work through the volume of solicitations and use algorithms to examine the word usage and conversation patterns by a suspect. Seigfried-Spellar said data was taken from online conversations provided voluntarily by law enforcement around the country.

“We went through and tried to identify language-based differences and factors like self-disclosure,” she said. Self-disclosure is a tactic in which the suspect tries to develop trust by sharing a personal story, which is usually negative, such as parental abuse.

“If we can identify language differences, then the tool can identify these differences in the chats in order to give a risk assessment and a probability that this person is going to attempt face-to-face contact with the victim,” Seigfried-Spellar said. “That way, officers can begin to prioritize which cases they want to put resources toward to investigate more quickly.”

Other standout characteristics of sexual predators grooming victims for a face-to-face meeting is that the chats will often go on for weeks or even months until a meeting is achieved. Those involved in sexual fantasy chatting move on from one youth to another quickly.

The project started as a result of a partnership with Ventura County Sheriff’s Department in California.

Seigfried-Spellar said the research discovered tactics like self-disclosure is used early in a predator’s talks with a potential victim.

“Meaning that we could potentially stop a sex offense from occurring because if law enforcement is notified of a suspicious chat quickly enough, CATT can analyze and offer the probability of a face-to-face,” she said. “We could potentially prevent a child from being sexually assaulted.”

Seigfried-Spellar worked in developing CATT with two co-principal investigators, associate professor Julia Taylor Rayz, who specializes in machine learning and natural language processing, and computer and information technology department head Marcus Rogers, who has an extensive background in digital forensics tool development.

CATT algorithms examine only the conversation factors and do not take the sex of either suspect or victim into consideration, at this time.

The project began with initial research done by Seigfried-Spellar and former Purdue professor Ming Ming Chiu. The exploratory study examined more than 4,300 messages in 107 online chat sessions involving arrested sex offenders, identifying different trends in word usage and self-disclosure by fantasy and contact sex offenders using statistical discourse analysis.

The trends determined through this research formed the basis for CATT. The research, “Detecting Contact vs. Fantasy Online Sexual Offenders in Chats with Minors: Statistical Discourse Analysis of Self-Disclosure and Emotion Words,” has been accepted and will be published in the journal Child Abuse and Neglect.

Initial plans are to turn the tool over to several law enforcement departments for a test run. Seigfried-Spellar said CATT could be handling data from active cases as early as the end of the year.

The conversation analysis provides the basis for future law enforcement tools as well, she said.

“What if there is a chat online and you don’t know if you’re chatting with an offender or someone who is 15 years old pretending to be 30,” she said. “Maybe then, this tool can analyze the differences in an actual 13-year-old versus someone who is pretending to be 13 or an actual adult versus someone who is pretending to be an adult.

“So, you can then start trying to figure out, language wise, who this person is I’m chatting with.”

At some point, she believes CATT could even teach officers to better portray a 10-year-old victim by perfecting constantly changing factors like language, emojis and acronyms.

“In these types of operations, our goal isn’t to entrap people,” she said. “In these, the offender is initiating, and as they do that, law enforcement is simply responding.

“If officers can respond in a way that speeds up the process, that gets the person off the street sooner compared to waiting eight months to allow a trust relationship to develop.”

The CATT project was funded through a grant issued in 2017 from the Purdue Polytechnic Institute.

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: Losing My Religion

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: Losing My Religion statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Too much is never enough, or is it? When it comes to natural gas (UNG), traders are obsessed with current EIA inventories in each of the five storage regions as a direct reflection of the latest supply and demand fundamentals. Traders can’t make decisions on where to drill, how much acreage to lease, length of laterals, frac sand ratios, or capital allocation. The Nevin Manimalay have one variable they can adjust, the price curve, to balance the market. Keep prices too high for too long and producers do what they do best, flood the market with oversupply. Keep prices too low for too long and rig counts plummet, DUC’s get harvested, production drops, and demand rises until balance is achieved. UNG is unlikely to move beyond the top end of the recent trading range due to the challenging supply fundamentals. Read on to understand why the EIA storage deficit is losing its relevance with respect to UNG price trend.

The Nevin Manimala CME curve is remarkably flat for the next 24 months ranging between ~$2.65 and ~$3.15. The Nevin Manimala strip makes sense if you consider the midstream projects phasing in over the next nine months enabling substantial gas output from some of the lowest cost production regions on the planet.

CME Price Curve as of 4/18, from the CME website
LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: Losing My Religion statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Nat gas bulls have been incredulous over the so-called “twin deficits” which include the EIA storage deficit to the five-year average, and the year over year deficit vs. 2017. Bulls want higher prices, but the market already sees substantial production momentum and doesn’t want to motivate additional output at this time. The Nevin Manimala price curve is suggesting producers may have overdone it already with the market paying careful attention to current L48 production.

So, how much is really enough? First, let’s think about why storage is needed in the first place. How much EIA inventory would you need if you knew temperatures for the continental U.S. would be 74F for a high and 60F for a low with no humidity for the next year from Maine to Arizona to Florida? The Nevin Manimala answer is not much. Temps would be in the super bearish no heat and no AC required zone (unless you’re my wife). Storage facilities would likely keep a token amount available just to be safe in the event of a midstream outage. Let’s look at the other extreme. How much inventory would you need if you knew temperatures for the continental U.S. would be 10F for a high and -5F for a low with extreme wind chill for the next year border to border? The Nevin Manimala answer is you would still run out of gas even if you had 9+ TCF in storage which is way beyond the theoretical EIA max capacity of ~4.6 TCF.

Why did I bring up these extreme examples? To illustrate the importance of temperature dependent demand on gas inventories. Historical EIA storage data represents a wide range of real-world weather situations, and, so far, the U.S. midstream network has done an admirable job of handling everything thrown its way. The Nevin Manimala extreme winter of 2013-2014 saw inventory levels bottom at ~824 BCF compared to ~1,310 BCF for this winter season. 2014 was the lowest bottom in the past 20 years of EIA record keeping.

EIA Storage Map, from the EIA Natural Gas website

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: Losing My Religion statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Until frac’ing flipped the gas universe upside down, most of the major U.S. pipelines were built to facilitate delivery from the South Central production region to the heavily populated Midwest and East coast consumption metros. Sabine Pass, located in southwest Louisiana, was originally designed to import LNG and connect with the major pipelines heading north and east. Cheniere (LNG) almost went bankrupt until the management team realized they needed to switch gears and export shale gas instead.

We all know the history of frac’ing and the massive changes that have resulted from the unexpected locations of the major shale basins. In 2005, industry followers had no idea the world’s largest production region would be the U.S. northeast. The Nevin Manimala Marcellus miracle and the rest of Appalachia are major long-term competitive advantages for the United States. Someday, hopefully, sooner than later, New York and New England will stop fighting the tide and take advantage of this incredible domestic resource. Commercial and residential customers from New York City to Boston SHOULD be benefiting from low priced electricity and nat gas. It’s not happening and someone is making a lot of money by gouging consumers and hiding behind “Green Politics” to delay the much-needed pipelines.

If horizontal frac’ing changed the game for the nat gas industry, should we open our minds to changes for EIA storage expectations? Gas is typically stored from April 1st to Nov. 1st with peak inventory averaging ~3,800 BCF for winter use. Long gone are the days of forwarding large volumes of gas from the South Central to the Midcon and Northeast. New high capacity pipelines are enabling more gas to flow from Appalachia to virtually all adjacent markets, not to mention increased production from the Niobrara, Bakken, and Canada. Existing pipelines that flowed north are being reversed, so Appalachian production can reach the gulf coast for LNG export demand.

The Nevin Manimala clear question is how much inventory is needed with a dynamic new midstream network that can deliver high volumes year round? Rover, Atlantic-Sunrise, and a large number of significant midstream projects will come online in 2018 and the impact is extraordinary. Consider during the early January arctic freeze, 359 BCF was withdrawn from EIA storage destroying the previous record near 288 BCF. During this record week, approximately ~51 BCF per day was delivered in addition to L48 daily production near 77 BCF. 128 BCF per day is staggering and the volume is higher if you include robust Canadian imports near 7 BCFd for the border markets. Capacity is likely to rise more with a supportive administration in Washington and strong end-user demand for a variety of applications. It’s undeniable the North American natural gas network has ever been more capable than it is today. By November 1, 2018, Rover and Atlantic Sunrise will be fully unleashed and ready for winter demand.

The Nevin Manimala gas market is smart and already knows everything I just reviewed. This is a big reason why the price curve is mostly below $3 with UNG trading near 52-week lows despite the large inventory deficit to the five-year average. A thoughtful investor might wonder where prices would be if we didn’t have the prolonged bullish weather in March and April?

Getting to 3,800+ BCF is no longer required for winter preparation unless we’re entering the next ice age. I expect the EIA gas storage maximum to trend lower over the next five years as the market gets comfortable with the reliability of the expanded midstream network. Specifically, I expect the South Central region to store less gas given the changing market dynamics there. Most of the consumption will be temperature independent demand from the big LNG export facilities, so the main reason to store gas is to protect against intermittent freeze-off events during winter. Freeze-offs are no fun and should not be minimized given the critical importance of energy security, but the price curve is making it uneconomic to store huge volumes of gas just Because Nevin Manimala we always did in the past.

EIA South Central Inventory History, from the EIA Gas website

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: Losing My Religion statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

The Nevin Manimala above chart shows the South Central inventory since 2010. During the chilly winter of 2013/2014, inventory dipped below 340 BCF. Since then, inventory has trended higher due to back to back warmer than average winters. Storage bottomed at 602 BCF this season and is already rising. With more Appalachian production heading south in the near future and ample associated gas coming from stronger WTI pricing, the market is wondering what is the right level for peak South Central storage? My prediction is you’ll see the S.C. max trend lower by 200-250 BCF over the next five years and perhaps even lower depending on new pipelines targeting the Permian. The Nevin Manimalare’s just too much gas coming from the South Central shales including the Eagle Ford, Haynesville, SCOOP/STACK, and Permian.

The Nevin Manimala Midcon is the primary target of new production from the Bakken, Niobrara, Canada, and Appalachia. Rover, capable of 3.25 BCF per day when 100% online, is a monster pipe connecting the Marcellus and Utica to the Defiance hub providing access to major Midwest markets. It would not surprise me to see the Midcon storage max trend lower by 10% given the enhanced deliverability of the midstream network. A simple example illustrates the point. Rover operates at half capacity today. An additional 1.625 BCFd over 140 days of winter equals 228 BCF of potential gas supply into Defiance during peak demand season. 1.625 BCFd over a full year is a massive volume increase. That’s too much extra gas for the Midcon alone and is a big reason why Rover Phase 2 provides access to the massive Dawn/Toronto Canadian hub. Also, don’t forget about the north to south pipeline reversals allowing Rover gas to head to the gulf from Defiance.

3,500 BCF is a reasonable target for the “new normal” of peak EIA gas storage with the South Central contributing the majority of the decrease. Perhaps the peak will trend even lower once the market gets comfortable with the new midstream reliability during extreme cold periods. The Nevin Manimala price curve is clearly saying it doesn’t make sense to store too much surplus gas for winter, and now the market participants need to get over the emotional anchoring to outdated beliefs. The Nevin Manimala U.S. midstream network is undergoing a major transformation that will change market dynamics forever. Don’t get stuck in the past by placing too much importance on the old way of viewing EIA storage.

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