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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Energy-carbon Prediction and Development of Low-carbon Path in Northwest China Based on LEAP Model: A Case Study of a Region in Qinghai Province

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Nov 8;46(11):6796-6805. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202410003.

ABSTRACT

Using energy consumption and other statistical data of a region in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022, this study examines the historical energy consumption structure and CO2 emissions of the region. Three scenarios of baseline, energy-saving, and low-carbon were constructed based on the LEAP model to predict and analyze the energy demand and CO2 emissions of the region from 2023 to 2035 under different scenarios. The results showed that: Under the baseline scenario, the total regional energy demand continued to grow, while CO2 emissions showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing and were expected to peak around 2025. Under the conditions of fully tapping the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in the region and accelerating the green transformation of the industrial and energy consumption structure, the energy demand and carbon emissions in the region could achieve a significant decline in the future. Considering the contributions of the various secondary scenarios, the improvement in end-use energy efficiency will be the most effective option for controlling the total energy demand in both the short and long term. The release of energy-saving potentials on the demand side will effectively reduce the energy intensity of the GDP unit, with an expected energy-saving contribution rate of 59.1% in 2035. Optimizing of the energy consumption structure is the key to controlling the continuous decline in total carbon emissions. Therefore, natural resources should be used to vigorously develop clean energy and improve the electrification level to achieve clean and low-carbon supply side, and the carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP in 2035 is expected to be reduced by approximately 70% compared with that in 2020 under the low-carbon scenario.

PMID:41316746 | DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202410003

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Analysis of Peak Carbon Status and Influencing Factors in Peak Carbon Pilot Cities

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Nov 8;46(11):6770-6781. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202410099.

ABSTRACT

Cities are the key area for realizing peak carbon, and promoting low-carbon transformation in cities is an important tool for China to achieve the dual-carbon target. The characteristic reform programs of peak carbon pilot cities provide good references and guidance for other cities in China to reach the peak carbon goal. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to construct a method for judging the city’s carbon peak status, and the carbon emissions of 25 carbon peak pilot cities from 2006 to 2022 were judged to reach the peak. The results showed that: ① There were three cities in the platform period, and ② there were 22 cities that had not reached the peak. Excluding Karamay City and Heihe City, which had missing data, the 23 peak carbon pilot cities were subjected to grey correlation analysis of carbon emission influencing factors. GDP per capita and urbanization rate were the factors with higher correlation, while the proportion of secondary industry and energy intensity showed a lower correlation. The results of the correlation rankings of the cities for various emission types were closely related to the development of the region. For example, Ordos City and Yulin City, which had high carbon emissions and high growth rates, were screened for carbon emission prediction. The STIRPAT carbon emission prediction model was constructed, and when combined with different scenarios, it was predicted that Ordos City could realize the goal of carbon peak in 2030 in all three scenarios, and Yulin City could realize the carbon peak in 2030 only under the strengthened low-carbon scenario.

PMID:41316744 | DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202410099

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Pathways from adolescent pregnancy to precarious employment: Distinguishing the effects of abortion, miscarriage, and live birth

J Res Adolesc. 2025 Dec;35(4):e70110. doi: 10.1111/jora.70110.

ABSTRACT

While adolescent pregnancy is widely recognized as a marker of early-life disadvantage, less is known about its long-term occupational consequences. This study examines the relationship between adolescent pregnancy experiences and precarious employment in adulthood, distinguishing between three pregnancy outcomes: abortion, miscarriage, and live birth. Using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we estimate school-fixed effects regression models to assess whether adolescent pregnancy is associated with greater labor market precarity. To examine underlying mechanisms, we employ multivariate bootstrap mediation analysis to test the mediating roles of educational attainment, incarceration history, and depressive symptoms. Findings indicate that all pregnancy outcomes are linked to increased risk of precarious employment, with educational attainment emerging as a consistent mediator across all outcomes-accounting for 28.2% of the total effect for live birth, 15.4% for miscarriage, and 14.1% for abortion. Incarceration significantly mediates the association for live birth (16.8%) and miscarriage (17.0%), but not abortion. Depressive symptoms have a relatively smaller overall impact, mediating 13.7% of the effect for abortion only. These results underscore the importance of disaggregating adolescent pregnancy experiences and identifying key mechanisms to better understand how early reproductive events shape labor market inequality across the life course. Findings point to the need for targeted, outcome-specific interventions that support continued education, reduce criminal justice exposure, and address mental health to mitigate long-term employment precarity among adolescent pregnancy survivors.

PMID:41316715 | DOI:10.1111/jora.70110

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Efficacy of Granulocyte Colony Stimulating Factor in Reducing First Trimester Miscarriages in Women With a History of Recurrent Pregnancy Loss: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Am J Reprod Immunol. 2025 Dec;94(6):e70189. doi: 10.1111/aji.70189.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Several studies have evaluated a wide range of immunomodulatory therapies for treatment of unexplained recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) and granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) is a new addition. We aimed to perform a cumulative meta-analysis to update and reevaluate the efficacy of the use of G-CSF to reduce the risk of first trimester miscarriages in women with a history of RPL.

METHODS: We searched electronic databases until September 26, 2024. We screened 309 citations and included six randomized control trials (RCTs) and four observational cohort studies. A total of 800 women were included in the analysis for the primary outcome; 426 (53%) women had treatment with G-CSF and 374 (47%) women had placebo or no treatment.

RESULTS: Women who were administered GCSF in early pregnancy had a statistically significant reduction in miscarriage compared to those who had placebo or no treatment, odds ratio [95% CI] = 0.4 [0.3; 0.7]. A subsequent significant increase in live birth was also found in women who had GCSF, odds ratio [95% CI] = 2.3 [1.4; 3.6].

CONCLUSION: Among women with a history of recurrent pregnancy loss, administration of granulocyte colony stimulating factor resulted in statistically significant reduction in first trimester miscarriage and subsequent improvement in live birth.

PMID:41316709 | DOI:10.1111/aji.70189

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Outcomes after bone marrow versus peripheral blood haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation using post-transplant cyclophosphamide-based graft-versus-host disease prophylaxis

Hematol Transfus Cell Ther. 2025 Nov 27;48(1):106222. doi: 10.1016/j.htct.2025.106222. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study aims to compare the outcomes of bone marrow (BM) to peripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) grafts in haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation using post-transplant cyclophosphamide-based graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) prophylaxis.

METHODS: A single-center retrospective analysis of all adult patients who underwent haploidentical transplants with at least one year of follow-up was conducted. Bivariate analyses were performed using chi-square tests and t-tests. Data were analyzed using SPSS with statistical significance being defined at p-value <0.05.

RESULTS: The study included 176 transplant recipients: 65 % received PBSC and 35 % received BM grafts. After a median follow-up of 21 months (range: 0-73 months), neither median overall survival nor disease-free survival had been reached. One-year overall survival (BM 75 % versus PBSC 74 %; p-value = 0.898) and one-year disease-free survival (63 % both groups; p-value = 0.994) were similar between groups. PBSC recipients exhibited earlier neutrophil engraftment (17 days versus 18 days; p-value = 0.022). The incidence of cytokine release syndrome was higher in PBSC (90 % versus 37 %) grafts (p-value <0.001). The incidences of Grade II-IV acute GvHD, relapse, non-relapse mortality, platelet engraftment, one-year chronic GvHD, and GvHD-free relapse-free survival were similar across both groups.

CONCLUSIONS: Haploidentical HSCT recipients observed similar outcomes regardless of graft source. Marginally faster neutrophil engraftment was observed in PBSC recipients. These findings suggest flexibility in using graft source for haploidentical transplants, though prospective studies are needed to confirm these results.

PMID:41313884 | DOI:10.1016/j.htct.2025.106222

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Efficacy and safety of Tan Yin Wan in preventing acute exacerbations of COPD: A multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase Ⅳ clinical trial

Phytomedicine. 2025 Nov 17;149:157571. doi: 10.1016/j.phymed.2025.157571. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Recurrent acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) impose disease deterioration and economic burden. Tan Yin Wan (TYW), a traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formulation, has shown promise in COPD management, but robust clinical evidence is lacking.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of TYW in delaying AECOPD onset, with subgroup analyses exploring the TCM principle of “Treating Winter Disease in Summer” (Dongbing Xiazhi, ), which advocates reinforcing physiological resilience in low-risk seasons to mitigate exacerbation and severity of disease in high-risk seasons.

METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase Ⅳ clinical trial, participants with moderate-to-severe COPD and high exacerbation risk received TYW or an identical placebo, in addition to standard therapy for 52 weeks. The primary outcome was time to the first AECOPD. Secondary outcomes included the severity of the first AECOPD, annualized exacerbation rate, proportion of AECOPD cases, symptom scales (Breathlessness, Cough, and Sputum Scale (BCSS), COPD Assessment Test (CAT), and modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale (mMRC)), 6-Minute Walk Distance (6MWD), pulmonary function and safety.

RESULTS: A total of 342 patients were recruited from 18 centers between July 13, 2021, and June 5, 2023, with 308 patients in the full analysis set (FAS) and 297 in the per-protocol set (PPS). TYW significantly prolonged the time to the first AECOPD vs. placebo after adjustment for baseline confounding (adjusted HR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.35 – 0.87, p = 0.01), and the restricted mean survival time difference (ΔRMST) was 30.45 days (95% CI = 4.68 – 56.23, p = 0.02). Improvements were demonstrated in BCSS, CAT, mMRC, and 6MWD at multiple timepoints (all p < 0.05), though lung function showed no significant differences. Exploratory subgroup analysis indicated a numerical trend toward a prolonged time to first exacerbation by 40.29 days in summer-enrolled participants (June – August) compared to non-summer-enrolled participants. This observation is tentatively consistent with the TCM principle of “Treating Winter Disease in Summer” as a proactive preventive strategy, though formal statistical significance was not achieved. Safety profiles were comparable between groups.

CONCLUSIONS: TYW adjunct therapy might delay AECOPD onset and improve symptom burden, representing a preventive intervention that embodies TCM’s “Treating Disease Before Onset” (Zhi Wei Bing, ) philosophy, potentially through “Treating Winter Disease in Summer”, as a proactive seasonal strategy in long-term COPD management.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered at the Chinese Clinical Trials Registry (ChiCTR2100048801).

PMID:41313848 | DOI:10.1016/j.phymed.2025.157571

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Cooperation versus social welfare

Phys Life Rev. 2025 Nov 22;56:33-60. doi: 10.1016/j.plrev.2025.11.006. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Understanding and promoting cooperative behaviour among self-interested individuals is a critical concern in physical, biological, and social sciences. Numerous foundational mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation have been identified, and these mechanisms have served as the basis for developing tools and interventions designed to sustain and enhance cooperative behaviour. However, since both foundational mechanisms and the derived tools and interventions often involve costs affecting individuals or institutions, striving for maximum cooperation can sometimes harm social welfare, defined as the total population payoff. Herein, we review existing evolutionary mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation as well as tools and interventions based on these mechanisms, emphasising the often-overlooked hidden costs that may lead to a misalignment between cooperation and social welfare. By explicitly incorporating these hidden factors into the models, we analyse the conditions under which they reduce social welfare, across a broad range of social dilemma games and evolutionary forces. Additionally, we review experimental studies that support and inform mathematical models and agent-based simulations. We highlight when considering social welfare is crucial, as misalignment is most likely to occur. Ultimately, we argue that social welfare, not just cooperation, should be the primary optimisation objective when designing interventions for social good. We also suggest several key directions to further explore this often-overlooked issue in the literature. Overall, we reveal that hidden costs often influence the alignment between cooperation and social welfare, challenging the common prioritisation of cooperation alone.

PMID:41313836 | DOI:10.1016/j.plrev.2025.11.006

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Biological models with nonlocal terms: Future scopes of research: Comment on “Nonlocal models in biology and life sciences: Sources, developments, and applications” by S. Pal & R. Melnick

Phys Life Rev. 2025 Nov 20;56:29-32. doi: 10.1016/j.plrev.2025.11.005. Online ahead of print.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:41313835 | DOI:10.1016/j.plrev.2025.11.005

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Predictors of primary postpartum hemorrhage among middle eastern postpartum women with vaginal delivery: A retrospective matched case-control study

Midwifery. 2025 Nov 24;153:104683. doi: 10.1016/j.midw.2025.104683. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Primary postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) remains a major contributor to maternal morbidity and mortality globally. Despite improvements in maternal healthcare across the Middle East, the burden of PPH persists, and regional data on its predictors remain limited. This study aimed to examine the maternal and health service-related predictors of primary PPH among Middle Eastern women with vaginal delivery in Oman.

METHODS: A retrospective matched case-control study was conducted among 483 postpartum women who delivered vaginally at three hospitals in Oman between May 2022 and May 2024. Cases (women with PPH, ≥500 mL blood loss) were matched 1:2 with controls based on maternal age, parity, and pregnancy type. Demographic, maternal, and health service-related factors were obtained from medical records and standardized forms in collaboration with unit head nurses.” Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, univariate analyses, and logistic regression (p < 0.05).

RESULTS: The prevalence of primary PPH was 10.4 %. No significant sociodemographic differences were observed between cases and controls. Logistic regression identified six significant predictors, including retained placenta (OR = 6.484), cervical tears (OR = 48.058), perineal tears (OR = 1.473), episiotomy (OR = 2.056), anticoagulant use (OR = 2.193), and mode of delivery (OR = 1.412). The highest PPH incidence occurred at the AXXX Hospital (28.58 %), which may reflect differences in service capacity and staffing.

CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This multi-center case-control study strengthens evidence on PPH predictors in this under-researched region. Both maternal and health service-related factors were associated with increased risk of primary PPH. Emphasis on targeted postpartum assessments, preventive measures such as selective episiotomy and perineal support during delivery, and improved clinical documentation is warranted. Policy-level actions, including investments in workforce capacity and service delivery, may further reduce PPH and improve maternal outcomes in Oman and comparable contexts.

PMID:41313817 | DOI:10.1016/j.midw.2025.104683

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Social Media Use Among Parents and Caregivers of Children With Rare Genetic Diseases: Scoping Review

J Med Internet Res. 2025 Nov 28;27:e77087. doi: 10.2196/77087.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Caring for children with rare genetic disorders is challenging due to complex medical needs and limited information. Often, information is scarce due to geographical dispersion and lack of access to expertise. Social media groups are increasingly used in parenting and in healthcare as tools for data sharing and acquisition, and online peer support. Online groups relating to specific rare diseases are increasingly used by parents navigating the difficulties of understanding their child’s diagnosis and providing them with support. Parents expect professionals to interact with them about information reported from online groups, but little is known regarding the content within these groups and the impact on families.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to synthesize current knowledge of social media use among parents and caregivers of children with a rare genetic syndrome to inform how these data might be used in parent-doctor interactions and in the research setting.

METHODS: We completed a comprehensive literature review across Web of Science, PubMed, and PsycINFO using a search strategy with themes of caregivers, rare genetic disease, and social media. Studies published in English from 2005 onwards, with parents and caregivers as a cohort and a focus on rare genetic diseases, were included. In total, 159 articles were identified, which underwent a title sift followed by an abstract sift based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Reference lists of included articles were also reviewed. A total of 12 studies were included, and a critical synthesis methodology was used to extract relevant points.

RESULTS: Most parents and caregivers use social media platforms, especially Facebook (Meta Platforms, Inc), particularly the group function. They are using social media groups as a tool for finding information related to their child’s rare genetic disease. A majority also engaged in online groups by sharing information and contributions of their own. This review highlights that caregivers are seeking three main types of support from social media: (1) medical information around diagnosis and treatments, (2) practical tips on care needs and equipment, and (3) social support, involving connection with other families who shared similar experiences. The use of social media improved accessibility to information regardless of time or geography and reduced feelings of isolation. Caregivers felt empowered in decision-making, and their interactions with health care professionals improved. Challenges include misinformation, concerns around privacy, emotional impacts of comparison, and a lack of online spaces for the rarest conditions.

CONCLUSIONS: Social media is a key tool for caregivers of children with rare genetic diseases. Addressing the associated challenges and harnessing the potential of these platforms can positively impact these families. Health care providers should consider discussing social media engagement in conversations with caregivers, and future research should focus on larger, longitudinal studies to explore the impacts of social media engagement.

PMID:41313807 | DOI:10.2196/77087