Nevin Manimala

Front Public Health. 2022 Jul 29;10:922795. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.922795. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

In this article, a new hybrid time series model is proposed to predict COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and deaths. Due to the variations and complexity in the data, it is very difficult to predict its future trajectory using linear time series or mathematical models. In this research article, a novel hybrid ensemble empirical mode decomposition and error trend seasonal (EEMD-ETS) model has been developed to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed hybrid model decomposes the complex, nonlinear, and nonstationary data into different intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from low to high frequencies, and a single monotone residue by applying EEMD. The stationarity of each IMF component is checked with the help of the augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) test and is then used to build up the EEMD-ETS model, and finally, future predictions have been obtained from the proposed hybrid model. For illustration purposes and to check the performance of the proposed model, four datasets of daily confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), and France have been used. Similarly, four different statistical metrics, i.e., root mean square error (RMSE), symmetric mean absolute parentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) have been used for a comparison of different time series models. It is evident from the results that the proposed hybrid EEMD-ETS model outperforms the other time series and machine learning models. Hence, it is worthy to be used as an effective model for the prediction of COVID-19.

PMID:35968475 | PMC:PMC9374278 | DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2022.922795

Neurol Res Pract. 2022 Aug 15;4(1):32. doi: 10.1186/s42466-022-00198-5.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: No controlled studies for non-systemic vasculitic neuropathy treatment exist (NSVN). We compared the treatment response to induction therapy commonly used in clinical practice in NSVN.

METHODS: In this retrospective single-center study, 43 patients with biopsy-proven NSVN were analyzed. Patients were subdivided into groups depending on their initial treatment. Relapse rates, changes of motor and sensory symptoms, adverse events, predictors of relapses, and second-line treatment were compared.

RESULTS: Initial treatment regimens were corticosteroid monotherapy, cyclophosphamide monotherapy, pulsed corticosteroid therapy, and combination therapy. Discontinuation due to adverse events occurred in 6 of 43 patients. Clinical data did not differ between treatment groups. Within 12 months, 24.3% of patients relapsed. The median time to relapse was 4 (1.5, 6) months. No relapse occurred in the combination therapy group. However, there was no statistically significant difference in relapse-free survival between treatment groups (p = 0.58). Neither clinical data nor biopsy analysis predicted relapses sufficiently. As a second-line treatment, cyclophosphamide as mono- or combination therapy was used (7 of 9 patients) most frequently. One patient was treated with methotrexate, and one with IVIG.

CONCLUSIONS: Induction therapy used in clinical practice is effective and mainly well-tolerated in NSVN. Our data do not support an overall advantage of cyclophosphamide over corticosteroid monotherapy. Controlled trials comparing the effectiveness of induction and maintenance therapy in NSVN are warranted.

PMID:35965348 | DOI:10.1186/s42466-022-00198-5

BMC Gastroenterol. 2022 Aug 14;22(1):385. doi: 10.1186/s12876-022-02466-9.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Perforations related to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) are rare but life-threatening complications. The treatment of Type-II-periampullary perforations that develop during endoscopic sphincterotomy remains a topic of discussion. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of fully covered self-expanding metal stenting (FCSEMS) for treating Type-II perforations.

METHODS: The files of all patients who underwent the ERCP procedures between January 2015 and October 2021 were retrospectively reviewed; patients with Stapher Type-II perforation were included in the current study. Patients with FCSEMS were classified into two groups: those who underwent FCSEMS and those who were conventionally followed up. Moreover, patients with FCSEMS were classified into two subgroups: those who underwent simultaneous stenting and those who underwent late stenting. Mortality, surgical intervention, percutaneous drainage, length of hospital stay, and inflammatory markers were all compared between the groups.

RESULTS: Of the 9253 patients undergoing ERCP during the study period, 28 patients (0.3%) were found to have Type-II perforation. The mean age of these patients was 67.7 ± 3.9 years, and 15 patients were female. FCSEMS was performed on 19 patients, whereas 9 patients were on conventional follow-up. None of the patients developed mortality. In the conventional follow-up group, one patient required percutaneous drainage and one required surgical intervention. In contrast, none of the patients in the FCSEMS group required additional intervention. At a statistically significant level, the length of hospital stay was found to be shorter in the FCSEMS group. There was no difference in inflammatory markers between the two groups. In nine patients, FCSEMS was performed simultaneously, whereas, in ten patients, FCSEMS was performed later because they required a second intervention. These two subgroups did not differ in terms of outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS: FCSEMS is a safe and effective treatment modality for patients with Type-II perforation. Moreover, it can be safely used in patients whose perforations are diagnosed during the ERCP procedure and in patients whose diagnoses are made after the procedure.

PMID:35965340 | DOI:10.1186/s12876-022-02466-9

BMC Surg. 2022 Aug 14;22(1):316. doi: 10.1186/s12893-022-01747-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Adjunct hemostats can be of use in certain surgical settings. We compared the effectiveness of two hemostats, Hemopatch® and Surgicel® Original in controlling bleeding from liver lesions in an experimental model.

METHODS: Control of grades 1 (mild) and 2 (moderate) bleeding (according to the Validated Intraoperative Bleeding [VIBe] SCALE) was assessed for 10 min after Hemopatch® (n = 198) or Surgicel® Original (n = 199) application on 397 liver surface lesions. The primary endpoint was hemostatic success (reaching VIBe SCALE grade 0 at 10 min). The secondary endpoint was time to hemostasis (time to reach and maintain grade 0). A generalized linear mixed model and an accelerated failure time model were used to assess the primary and secondary endpoints, respectively.

RESULTS: The overall hemostatic success rate of Hemopatch® was statistically significantly superior to that of Surgicel® Original (83.8% versus 73.4%; p = 0.0036; odds ratio [OR] 2.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-4.27) and time to hemostasis was reduced by 15.9% (p = 0.0032; 95% CI 0.749-0.944). Grade 2 bleeds treated with Hemopatch® had statistically significantly higher hemostatic success (71.7% versus 48.5%; p = 0.0007; OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.58-5.58) and shorter time to hemostasis (49.6% reduction, p = 3.6 × 10^-8); differences for grade 1 bleeds (hemostatic success rate or time to hemostasis) were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS: Hemopatch® provided better control of VIBe SCALE bleeding compared to Surgicel® Original for Grade 2 bleeds in this porcine model, highlighting the importance of choosing a suitable hemostat to optimize control of bleeding during surgery.

PMID:35965336 | DOI:10.1186/s12893-022-01747-0

J Med Virol. 2022 Aug 14. doi: 10.1002/jmv.28069. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Oncolytic viruses (OVs), including oncolytic herpes simplex viruses (oHSVs), are promising therapeutics against cancer. Here, we report two ICP6-mutated HSVs (type I) generated by CRISPR/Cas9, rHSV1/∆RR (with ICP6 RR domain deleted) and rHSV1/∆ICP6 (with a complete deletion of ICP6), exhibiting potent antitumor efficacy against lung adenocarcinoma. Both the mutants showed strong cytotoxicity in vitro, comparable with the control viruses expressing intact ICP6, but in relatively lower titers. Moreover, these mutant viruses exhibited preferential killing ability against lung tumor cells rather than normal lung fibroblast cells. Further, unlike the control HSV-1 causing severe illness or death in mouse model, the ICP6-mutated viruses did not induce significant pathogenicity but instead effectively reduced tumor burden in vivo and led to 100% survival of the animals, indicating notable antitumor activity and attenuated virulence. In addition, rHSV1/∆RR seemed to have even better antitumor efficacy than rHSV1/∆ICP6, albeit no statistical significance in inhibition of tumor volume. Histopathologically, rHSV1/∆RR induced massive neutrophil infiltration to the tumor microenvironment and consistently, triggered more antitumor immune and neutrophil chemotactic cytokines or higher expression levels of them (indicated by qPCR and transcriptome analyses). These results demonstrate the anti-adenocarcinoma potential of the CRISPR/Cas9-engineered ICP6 mutant HSV1, especially the rHSV1/∆RR which likely induces stronger innate antitumor immune response. Together, these findings may provide new valuable clues for further development of OV-based therapeutics against lung adenocarcinoma or other types of tumors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:35965331 | DOI:10.1002/jmv.28069

BMC Health Serv Res. 2022 Aug 15;22(1):1038. doi: 10.1186/s12913-022-08415-2.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the effectiveness of a targeted telephone-based case management service that aimed to reduce ED attendance amongst frequent attenders, known to disproportionately contribute to demand. Evidence on the effectiveness of these services varies.

METHODS: A 24-month controlled before-and-after study, following 808 patients (128 cases and 680 controls (41 were non-compliant)) who were offered the service in the first four months of operation within a UK ED department. Patients stratified as high-risk of reattending ED within 6 months by a predictive model were manually screened. Those positively reviewed were offered a non-clinical, nurse-led, telephone-based health coaching, consisting of care planning, coordination and goal setting for up to 9 months. Service effectiveness was estimated using a difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis. Incident rate of ED and Minor Injury Unit (MIU) attendances and average length of stay in intervention recipients and controls over 12 months after receiving their service offer following ED attendance were compared, adjusting for the prior 12-month period, sex and age, to give an incidence rate ratio (IRR).

RESULTS: Intervention recipients were more likely to be female (63.3% versus 55.4%), younger (mean of 69 years versus 76 years), and have higher levels of ED activity (except for MIU) than controls. Mean rates fell between periods for all outcomes (except for MIU attendance). The Intention-to-Treat analysis indicated non-statistically significant effect of the intervention in reducing all outcomes, except for MIU attendances, with IRRs: ED attendances, 0.856 (95% CI: 0.631, 1.160); ED admissions, 0.871 (95% CI: 0.628, 1.208); length of stay for emergency and elective admissions: 0.844 (95% CI: 0.619, 1.151) and 0.781 (95% CI: 0.420, 1.454). MIU attendance increased with an IRR: 2.638 (95% CI: 1.041, 6.680).

CONCLUSIONS: Telephone-based health coaching appears to be effective in reducing ED attendances and admissions, with shorter lengths of stay, in intervention recipients over controls. Future studies need to capture outcomes beyond acute activity, and better understand how services like this provide added value.

PMID:35965330 | DOI:10.1186/s12913-022-08415-2

BMC Pulm Med. 2022 Aug 14;22(1):313. doi: 10.1186/s12890-022-02105-9.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The disease course of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is progressive and occasionally, other types of interstitial lung disease (ILD) may progress similarly to IPF. This study aimed to evaluate risk factors for disease progression within 24 months in patients with various ILDs.

METHODS: This prospective study obtained 97 patients with a suspected ILD who underwent a transbronchial lung cryobiopsy. The extent of several high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) patterns was assessed. Due to the inclusion criteria the study population presented a low extent of honeycombing and definite usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern on HRCT suggesting an early stage of ILD. Disease progression within 24 months despite treatment was defined as a relative decline of ≥ 10% in forced vital capacity (FVC), or a relative decline in FVC of ≥ 5% and one of the three additional criteria: (1) a decline in diffusion capacity to carbon monoxide (DLCO) ≥ 15%; (2) increased fibrosis on HRCT; (3) progressive symptoms, or progressive symptoms and increased fibrosis on HRCT. The same definition was utilized in patients with IPF and other ILDs. Risk factors for disease progression were evaluated in a multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS: Disease progression was revealed in 52% of the patients with ILD, 51% of the patients with IPF, and 53% of the patients with other types of ILD. A high extent of reticulation on HRCT (Odds ratio [OR] 3.11, 95% Confidence interval [CI] 1.21-7.98, P = 0.019) and never smoking (OR 3.11, CI 1.12-8.63, P = 0.029) were associated with disease progression whereas platelet count (OR 2.06 per 100 units increase, CI 0.96-4.45, P = 0.065) did not quite reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSION: Higher extent of reticulation on HRCT and never smoking appeared to associate with the risk of disease progression within 24 months in ILD patients without honeycombing. Approximately half of the patients with ILD revealed disease progression, and similar proportions were observed in patients with IPF and in other types of ILD.

PMID:35965320 | DOI:10.1186/s12890-022-02105-9

BMC Med Educ. 2022 Aug 15;22(1):618. doi: 10.1186/s12909-022-03677-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Nursing is a profession that has had many ethical aspects and understanding professional belonging and ethics as a deep and complex process is one of the basic concepts in this field. This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of training professional belonging and ethical behaviors in two methods: electronic portfolio and online discussion forum in nursing students.

METHODS: This study is a single-blinded randomized-controlled trial (RCT) with two parallel intervention groups and a third control group. The sample size was 90 selected by block randomization method. The educational contents of professional belonging and ethical behaviors were presented to the participants in two ways: electronic portfolio and online discussion forum. Demographic information form, professional belonging questionnaire, and ethical behaviors questionnaire were applied to collect data. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 24 software. Respectively mean, standard deviation and repeated measured, analysis of variance tests was used in descriptive and analytic statistic. (P value < 0.05).

RESULTS: Comparison of the mean score of professional belonging and ethical behavior in the three stages of pretest, immediately after the test and four weeks after the test in all three groups was significant (P < 0.001). The control group had a higher mean score of professional belonging immediately after the test (108.18 ± 48.9) compared to the other two groups. Also, the online discussion forum group had a higher mean score on ethical behavior in four weeks after the test (104.2 ± 0.8) compared to the other two groups.

CONCLUSION: Training based on two methods of the electronic portfolio and online discussion forum increases and enhances the level of ethical behaviors in students. Therefore, the implementation of such methods of training can be useful in improving, promoting, and learning ethical behaviors in nursing students. On the other hand, training based on the two methods had a negative impact on professional belonging. Therefore, it is suggested that future studies be conducted with a greater focus on areas of professional belonging.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: This research has been registered in Iranian Clinical Trial Registration Center (IRCT) with registration number “IRCT20180612040063N1” and registration date “16/07/2018”.

PMID:35965313 | DOI:10.1186/s12909-022-03677-0

Hosp Pediatr. 2022 Aug 15:e2022006637. doi: 10.1542/hpeds.2022-006637. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Only 4% of brief resolved unexplained events (BRUE) are caused by a serious underlying illness. The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines do not distinguish patients who would benefit from further investigation and hospitalization. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical decision rule for predicting the risk of a serious underlying diagnosis or event recurrence.

METHODS: We retrospectively identified infants presenting with a BRUE to 15 children’s hospitals (2015-2020). We used logistic regression in a split-sample to derive and validate a risk prediction model.

RESULTS: Of 3283 eligible patients, 565 (17.2%) had a serious underlying diagnosis (n = 150) or a recurrent event (n = 469). The AAP’s higher-risk criteria were met in 91.5% (n = 3005) and predicted a serious diagnosis with 95.3% sensitivity, 8.6% specificity, and an area under the curve of 0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.47-0.57). A derived model based on age, previous events, and abnormal medical history demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.64 (95%CI: 0.59-0.70). In contrast to the AAP criteria, patients >60 days were more likely to have a serious underlying diagnosis (odds ratio:1.43, 95%CI: 1.03-1.98, P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS: Most infants presenting with a BRUE do not have a serious underlying pathology requiring prompt diagnosis. We derived 2 models to predict the risk of a serious diagnosis and event recurrence. A decision support tool based on this model may aid clinicians and caregivers in the discussion on the benefit of diagnostic testing and hospitalization (https://www.mdcalc.com/calc/10400/brief-resolved-unexplained-events-2.0-brue-2.0-criteria-infants).

PMID:35965279 | DOI:10.1542/hpeds.2022-006637

Arch Clin Neuropsychol. 2022 Aug 13:acac067. doi: 10.1093/arclin/acac067. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The Benton Visual Form Discrimination Test (VFDT) is a commonly used measure of visual discrimination and visual recognition memory and has shown promise in distinguishing between different levels of cognitive impairment. We assess the predictive diagnostic utility of the VFDT in a sample of older Veterans with cognitive concerns.

METHOD: Subjects included a total of 172 mostly male Veterans over the age of 64 (mean = 76.0; SD = 7.6) recruited from a VA clinic specializing in neuropsychological assessment of older Veterans. The clinical sample included 56 subjects diagnosed with Major Neurocognitive Disorder, 74 diagnosed with Mild Neurocognitive Disorder, and 42 with No Neurocognitive Impairment. Impairment categories were modeled in separate multinomial logistic regressions with two versions of the VFDT as predictors: the Visual Form Discrimination Test-Recognition Subtest (VFDT-Rec) test (visual recognition memory) and the Visual Form Discrimination Test-Matching Subtest VFDT-Mat test (visual form discrimination). Years of education were included as a covariate.

RESULTS: After adjusting for education, higher VFDT-Rec total scores were associated with lower odds of being categorized with a greater degree of cognitive/functional impairment (OR 0.66-0.83, p < .001). VFDT-Mat scores showed a similar pattern, but only reached statistical significance for the Major versus No Neurocognitive Impairment (OR = 0.77, p = .0010) and Major versus Mild comparisons (OR = 0.89, p = .0233).

CONCLUSIONS: The VFDT may enhance the confidence of differential diagnosis of dementia in older adult Veterans. Formal education-adjusted norms need to be established for clinical use.

PMID:35965251 | DOI:10.1093/arclin/acac067