Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2026 May 25;71:101887. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2026.101887. eCollection 2026 Jun.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Lung cancer in Taiwan is never-smoking and adenocarcinoma (LUAD) predominant. This study evaluated national LUAD stage-shifts and their association with opportunistic, self-initiated low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening.
METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted using Taiwan Cancer Registry (TCR) data (2011-2023), and self-initiated LDCT screening records from five medical centers (2011-2021). Patients were classified as early-stage (stage I) and late-stage (stage II-IV). Outcomes included age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized incidence-based mortality (ASIBM), and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of national LUAD, and screening volume of self-initiated LDCT.
FINDINGS: Among 126,753 LUAD cases 71,159 (56.1%) were females and 87,830 (69.3%) never smoked. The opportunistic self-initiated LDCT screening revealed 70,803 individuals, most never smoked (83.7%) and were male (56.6%). ASIRs of stage 0 (AAPC, 49.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 43.3-71.0) and early-stage (AAPC, 13.0%; 95% CI, 12.3-13.7) increased significantly. Conversely, late-stage ASIRs declined in selected subgroups, including never-smoking females aged <55 years (AAPC, -1.9%; 95% CI, -0.3 to -0.9) and in smoking patients aged ≥75 years (males AAPC, -2.3%; 95% CI, -3.1 to -1.5; females AAPC, -3.9%; 95% CI, -6.3 to -1.3). Rising LDCT screening volume descriptively paralleled this stage-shift in never-smoking females. ASIBM declined significantly over time, particularly in advanced-stage disease.
INTERPRETATION: The coexistence of increasing early-stage incidence, largely stable late-stage disease, and declining incidence-based mortality suggests a transition phase characterized by both detection expansion and emerging clinical benefit. The increase in self-initiated LDCT screenings paralleled the stage-shift among never-smoking females, and further research is needed to assess long-term outcomes and cost-effectiveness.
FUNDING: Health Promotion Administration, Ministry of Health and Welfare; the Ministry of Health and Welfare and Formatting the Risk Prediction Models for Never-Smoking Lung Cancer (FORMOSA).
PMID:42239973 | PMC:PMC13227239 | DOI:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2026.101887