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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Trends of diabetes in Beijing, China

Chin Med J (Engl). 2024 Jul 8. doi: 10.1097/CM9.0000000000003207. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The global rise in diabetes prevalence is a pressing concern. Despite initiatives like “The Healthy Beijing Action 2020-2030” advocating for increased awareness, treatment, and control, the specific situation in Beijing remains unexplored. This study aimed to analyze the trends in diabetes prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control among Beijing adults.

METHODS: Through a stratified multistage probability cluster sampling method, a series of representative cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Beijing from 2005 to 2022, targeting adults aged 18-79 years. A face-to-face questionnaire, along with body measurements and laboratory tests, were administered to 111,943 participants. Data from all survey were age- and/or gender-standardized based on the 2020 Beijing census population. Annual percentage rate change (APC) or average annual percentage rate change (AAPC) was calculated to determine prevalence trends over time. Complex sampling logistic regression models were employed to explore the relationship between various characteristics and diabetes.

RESULTS: From 2005 to 2022, the total prevalence of diabetes among Beijing adults aged 18-79 years increased from 9.6% (95% CI: 8.8-10.4%) to 13.9% (95% CI: 13.1-14.7%), with an APC/AAPC of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.1-3.2%, P <0.05). Significant increases were observed among adults aged 18-39 years and rural residents. Undiagnosed diabetes rose from 3.5% (95% CI: 3.2-4.0%) to 7.2% (95% CI: 6.6-7.9%) with an APC/AAPC of 4.1% (95% CI: 0.5-7.3%, P <0.05). However, diabetes awareness and treatment rates showed annual declines of 1.4% (95% CI: -3.0% to -0.2%, P <0.05) and 1.3% (95% CI: -2.6% to -0.2%, P <0.05), respectively. The diabetes control rate decreased from 21.5% to 19.1%, although not statistically significant (APC/AAPC = -1.5%, 95% CI: -5.6% to 1.9%). Overweight and obesity were identified as risk factors for diabetes, with ORs of 1.65 (95% CI: 1.38-1.98) and 2.48 (95% CI: 2.07-2.99), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of diabetes in Beijing has significantly increased between 2005 and 2022, particularly among young adults and rural residents. Meanwhile, there has been a concerning decrease in diabetes awareness and treatment rates, while control rates have remained stagnant. Regular blood glucose testing, especially among adults aged 18-59 years, should be warranted. Furthermore, being male, elderly, overweight, or obese was associated with higher diabetes risk, suggesting the needs for targeted management strategies.

PMID:38973297 | DOI:10.1097/CM9.0000000000003207

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Income dynamics and risk of colorectal cancer in individuals with type 2 diabetes: a nationwide population-based cohort study

J Epidemiol. 2024 Jul 6. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20230310. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have increased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but it is unknown whether income dynamics are associated with CRC risk in these individuals. We examined whether persistent low- or high-income and income changes are associated with CRC risk in non-elderly adults with T2D.

METHODS: Using nationally representative data from the Korean Health Insurance Service database, 1,909,492 adults aged 30 to 64 years with T2D and no history of cancer were included between 2009 and 2012 (median follow-up of 7.8 years). We determined income levels based on health insurance premiums and assessed annual income quartiles for the baseline year and the four preceding years. Hazard ratios(HRs) and 95% confidence intervals(CIs) were estimated after adjusting for sociodemographic factors, CRC risk factors, and diabetes duration and treatment.

RESULTS: Persistent low income (i.e., lowest income quartile) was associated with increased CRC risk (HRn=5years vs. n=0years 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.18; P for trend=0.004). Income declines (i.e., a decrease≥25% in income quantile) were also associated with increased CRC risk (HR≥2 vs. 0 declines 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.16; p for trend=0.001). In contrast, persistent high income (i.e., highest income quartile) was associated with decreased CRC risk (HRn=5years vs. n=0years 0.81, 95% CI 0.73-0.89; p for trend<0.0001), which was more pronounced for rectal cancer (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.53-0.78) and distal colon cancer (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the need for increased public policy awareness of the association between income dynamics and CRC risk in adults with T2D.

PMID:38972733 | DOI:10.2188/jea.JE20230310

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Confounder Selection and Sensitivity Analyses to Unmeasured Confounding from Epidemiological and Statistical Perspectives

J Epidemiol. 2024 Jul 6. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20240082. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

In observational studies, identifying and adjusting for a sufficient set of confounders is crucial for accurately estimating the causal effect of the exposure on the outcome. Even in studies with large sample sizes, which typically benefit from small variances in estimates, there is a risk of producing estimates that are precisely inaccurate if the study suffers from systematic errors or biases, including confounding bias. To date, several approaches have been developed for selecting confounders. In this article, we first summarize the epidemiological and statistical approaches to identify a sufficient set of confounders. Particularly, we introduce the modified disjunctive cause criterion as one of the most useful approaches, which involves controlling for any pre-exposure covariate that affects the exposure, outcome, or both. It then excludes instrumental variables but includes proxies for the shared common cause of exposure and outcome. Statistical confounder selection is also useful when dealing with a large number of covariates, even in studies with small sample sizes. After introducing several approaches, we discuss some pitfalls and considerations in confounder selection, such as the adjustment for instrumental variables, intermediate variables, and baseline outcome variables. Lastly, as it is often difficult to comprehensively measure key confounders, we introduce two statistics, E-value and Robustness value, for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounders. Illustrated examples are provided using the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. Integrating these principles and approaches will enhance our understanding of confounder selection and facilitate better reporting and interpretation of future epidemiological studies.

PMID:38972732 | DOI:10.2188/jea.JE20240082

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A principal component analysis of metabolome and cognitive decline among Japanese older adults: cross-sectional analysis using Tohoku Medical Megabank Cohort Study

J Epidemiol. 2024 Jul 6. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20240099. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BackgroundDementia is the leading cause of disability and imposes a significant burden on society. Previous studies have suggested an association between metabolites and cognitive decline. Although the metabolite composition differs between Western and Asian populations, studies targeting Asian populations remain scarce.MethodsThis cross-sectional study used data from a cohort survey of community-dwelling older adults aged ≥ 60 years living in Miyagi, Japan, conducted by Tohoku Medical Megabank Organization between 2013 and 2016. Forty-three metabolite variables quantified using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy were used as explanatory variables. Dependent variable was the presence of cognitive decline (≤ 23 points), assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination. Principal component (PC) analysis was performed to reduce the dimensionality of metabolite variables, followed by logistic regression analysis to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cognitive decline.ResultsA total of 2,940 participants were included (men: 49.0%, mean age: 67.6 years). Among them, 1.9% showed cognitive decline. The first 12 PC components (PC1-PC12) accounted for 71.7% of the total variance. Multivariate analysis showed that PC1, which mainly represented essential amino acids, was associated with lower odds of cognitive decline (OR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80-0.98). PC2, which mainly included ketone bodies, was associated with cognitive decline (OR = 1.29; 95% CI, 1.11-1.51). PC3, which included amino acids, was associated with lower odds of cognitive decline (OR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-0.99).ConclusionAmino acids are protectively associated with cognitive decline, whereas ketone metabolites are associated with higher odds of cognitive decline.

PMID:38972731 | DOI:10.2188/jea.JE20240099

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Regional disparities in measles vaccination coverage and their associated factors: an ecological study in Japan

J Epidemiol. 2024 Jul 6. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20240129. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The decline in measles vaccination coverage is a global concern. In Japan, coverage of the first-dose of measles vaccine, which had exceeded the target of 95.0% since fiscal year (FY) 2010, fell to 93.5% in FY 2021. Vaccination coverage increased to 95.4% in FY 2022 but varied by municipality. Few studies have focused on regional disparities in measles vaccination coverage. This study aimed to clarify the regional disparities in measles vaccination coverage by municipality in Japan and their associated factors.

METHODS: In this ecological study, the measles vaccination coverage in FY 2022; population density; area deprivation index (ADI, an indicator of socioeconomic status); proportion of foreign nationals, single-father households, single-mother households, and mothers aged ≥30 years; and number of medical facilities, pediatricians, and non-pediatric medical doctors in 1,698 municipalities were extracted from Japanese government statistics. Negative binomial regression was performed with the number of children vaccinated against measles as the dependent variable, number of children eligible for measles vaccination as the offset term, and other factors as independent variables.

RESULTS: Vaccination coverage was less than 95.0% in 54.3% of municipalities. Vaccination coverage was significantly positively associated with population density and negatively associated with the proportion of single-father households, mothers aged ≥30 years, and the ADI (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.004, 0.976, 0.999, 0.970, respectively).

CONCLUSION: This study showed regional disparities in measles vaccination coverage in Japan. Single-father households, age of mothers, and socioeconomic status may be key factors when municipalities consider strategies to improve vaccination coverage.

PMID:38972730 | DOI:10.2188/jea.JE20240129

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Exosomal mRNA in plasma serves as a predictive marker for microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma

J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2024 Jul 7. doi: 10.1111/jgh.16677. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is a pressing need for non-invasive preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study investigates the potential of exosome-derived mRNA in plasma as a biomarker for diagnosing MVI.

METHODS: Patients with suspected HCC undergoing hepatectomy were prospectively recruited for preoperative peripheral blood collection. Exosomal RNA profiling was conducted using RNA sequencing in the discovery cohort, followed by differential expression analysis to identify candidate targets. We employed multiplexed droplet digital PCR technology to efficiently validate them in a larger sample size cohort.

RESULTS: A total of 131 HCC patients were ultimately enrolled, with 37 in the discovery cohort and 94 in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the expression levels of RSAD2, PRPSAP1, and HOXA2 were slightly elevated while CHMP4A showed a slight decrease in patients with MVI compared with those without MVI. These trends were consistent with the findings in the discovery cohort, although they did not reach statistical significance (P > 0.05). Notably, the expression level of exosomal PRPSAP1 in plasma was significantly higher in patients with more than 5 MVI than in those without MVI (0.147 vs 0.070, P = 0.035).

CONCLUSION: This study unveils the potential of exosome-derived PRPSAP1 in plasma as a promising indicator for predicting MVI status preoperatively.

PMID:38972728 | DOI:10.1111/jgh.16677

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

“Some Thoughts on Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Long-Term Smokers in Asia”

J Thorac Oncol. 2024 Jul;19(7):e14-e15. doi: 10.1016/j.jtho.2024.04.010.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:38972711 | DOI:10.1016/j.jtho.2024.04.010

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Some Thoughts on Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Long-Term Smokers in Asia

J Thorac Oncol. 2024 Jul;19(7):e13-e14. doi: 10.1016/j.jtho.2024.03.020.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:38972710 | DOI:10.1016/j.jtho.2024.03.020

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Vigour as a marker of positive mental health among social media respondents

J Affect Disord. 2024 Jul 5:S0165-0327(24)01060-7. doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2024.07.012. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Quantitative research on vigour as a therapeutically responsive marker of positive mental health, has become possible by virtue of the validation of the Vigour Assessment Scale (VAS). Considering that its validation and therapeutic responsiveness were examined in an avolitional schizophrenia population, using the VAS outside these constraints requires that its psychometric properties be investigated in a more general non-clinical population.

METHOD: Social media respondents (n = 787) were recruited on social media through snowball sampling and data were obtained for statistical analyses through an online questionnaire comprising the VAS and measures of work-place vigour, active involvement in personal growth, behavioural activation, procrastination, and fatigue.

RESULTS: Convergent validity was confirmed in moderate to strong positive correlations between the VAS and measures approximate to vigour including physical strength (r = 0.805), cognitive liveliness (r = 0.676), planfulness (r = 0.61), and intentional behaviour (r = 0.595). Discriminant validity was evident in negative correlations with procrastination (r = -0.593) and fatigue (r = -0.786). The VAS showed good internal consistency (Cronbach α = 0.951), split-half reliability (r = 0.892), test-retest reliability (r = 0.861), and a low standard error of measurement of 3.73 within a theoretical range of 82 points. Exploratory factor analysis yielded a clear two-factor structure.

LIMITATIONS: Results are limited to willing participants who responded through social media.

CONCLUSIONS: Vigour may now be measured clinically as an indication of positive mental health and well-being. It may also be further investigated for its relations to other parameters of health, personality, and the efficacy of professional and self-enhancing interventions that aim for the cultivation of vigour.

PMID:38972644 | DOI:10.1016/j.jad.2024.07.012

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Machine Learning Based Prediction of Post-operative Infrarenal Endograft Apposition for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Eur J Vasc Endovasc Surg. 2024 Jul 5:S1078-5884(24)00567-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ejvs.2024.07.003. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Challenging infrarenal aortic neck characteristics have been associated with increased risk of a type Ia endoleak after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). Short apposition (< 10 mm circumferential shortest apposition length [SAL]) on the first post-operative computerised tomography angiography (CTA) has been associated with type Ia endoleak. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to predict post-operative SAL in patients with an abdominal aortic aneurysm based on the pre-operative shape.

METHODS: A statistical shape model was developed to obtain principal component scores. The dataset comprised patients treated with standard EVAR without complications (n = 93) enriched with patients with a late type Ia endoleak (n = 54). The infrarenal SAL was obtained from the first post-operative CTA and subsequently binarised (< 10 mm and ≥ 10 mm). The principal component scores that were statistically different between the SAL groups were used as input for five classification models, and evaluated by means of leave one out cross validation. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were determined for each classification model.

RESULTS: Of the 147 patients, 24 patients had an infrarenal SAL < 10 mm and 123 patients had a SAL ≥ 10 mm. The gradient boosting model resulted in the highest AUC of 0.77. Using this model, 114 (78.0%) patients were correctly classified; sensitivity (< 10 mm apposition was correctly predicted) and specificity (≥ 10 mm apposition was correctly predicted) were 0.70 and 0.79, and were based on a threshold of 0.21, respectively.

CONCLUSION: A model was developed to predict which patients undergoing EVAR will achieve sufficient graft apposition (≥ 10 mm) in the infrarenal aortic neck based on a statistical shape model of pre-operative CTA data. This model can help vascular specialists during the planning phase to accurately identify patients who are unlikely to achieve sufficient apposition after standard EVAR.

PMID:38972630 | DOI:10.1016/j.ejvs.2024.07.003