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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Future Projections of Burned Area in Europe Highlight the Importance of Human Action

Glob Chang Biol. 2026 Aug;32(8):e71043. doi: 10.1111/gcb.71043.

ABSTRACT

Wildfires are often a natural part of many European ecosystems, but human activities through land use, other socio-economic factors and climate change have significantly changed how fires behave. Anthropogenic climate change is already intensifying fire-prone weather and increasing wildfire risk across Europe with risk expected to grow sharply in coming decades. Past experience suggests that human action, such as fuel management and improved fire suppression capacity, can reduce wildfire spread and intensity. However, whether current or future efforts can counter rising risks under continued climate change remains uncertain. In this study, we assess the role of socio-economic factors and biophysical factors in shaping future fire regimes across Europe. Using two fire models (SPITFIRE and BASE) coupled with the fire-enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJmL, we simulate future burned area under two socio-economic and greenhouse gas concentration pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0). We also run experiments where socio-economic factors are held constant to isolate their influence. Our findings show that both biophysical and socio-economic factors strongly affect future wildfire activity. Fire weather and fire management capacity are important drivers, while population density, vegetation shifts and land use matter more at regional scales. By the end of the century, intensified fire weather alone could increase annual burned area by approximately +39% under a low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6) and by nearly +192% under a high emission scenario (SSP3-7.0). Continued improvements in fire management capacity could substantially moderate these increases, reducing burned area by 72%-92% compared to scenarios without these improvements. However, under strong climate change, fire activity still rises in about 55% of Europe’s fire prone regions, even if investments in fire management capacity continue at current levels. Overall, improved wildfire management capacity has the potential to greatly limit impacts of worsening fire weather, but may not fully offset strong climate change impacts.

PMID:42619481 | DOI:10.1111/gcb.71043

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The effect of biologics on pulmonary function tests and small airways in patients with severe asthma: a real-life study

J Asthma. 2026 Aug 20:1-12. doi: 10.1080/02770903.2026.2721175. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Significant advances have been made in the treatment and management of severe asthma with the development of biological treatments.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate changes in lung function tests potentially reflecting distal airflow limitation in patients with T2-high severe asthma treated with biological agents.

METHODS: The study included a total of 80 patients diagnosed with T2-high severe asthma who were treated with biologics (omalizumab (n = 36 (45%)), mepolizumab (n = 35 (43.8%)), or benralizumab (n = 9 (11.2%)) for at least 1 year. The demographic data, comorbid diseases, asthma control test (ACT) scores, exacerbation rates, and pulmonary function test results of the patients were evaluated retrospectively.

RESULTS: The rate of male patients was higher in the benralizumab group (p = 0.017), allergic rhinitis and atopy were significantly higher in the omalizumab group (p < 0.001), and CRSwNP was higher in the mepolizumab and benralizumab groups compared to the omalizumab group (p < 0.001). At 12 months after treatment with omalizumab and mepolizumab, all pulmonary function tests (FEV1, FVC, FEV1/FVC, FEF25, FEF50, FEF75, FEF25-75, PEF) showed a statistically significant increase, ACT score increased, blood eosinophil count decreased, and the number of annual asthma exacerbations decreased (p < 0.05). At 12 months after treatment with benralizumab, the increase in FEF50 and FEV1/FVC and the decrease in the number of annual asthma exacerbations were statistically significant (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the findings of this study support that biologics were associated with improvements in spirometric parameters potentially reflecting distal airflow limitation.

PMID:42619440 | DOI:10.1080/02770903.2026.2721175

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Interrelationships among parenting behaviors, breastfeeding participation, and breastfeeding attitudes of mothers and fathers in the postpartum period: A prospective study

Int J Gynaecol Obstet. 2026 Aug 20. doi: 10.1002/ijgo.71284. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the interrelationships among parenting behaviors, breastfeeding participation, and breastfeeding attitudes of mothers and fathers in the postpartum period and to identify the sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with these variables.

METHODS: This study was a descriptive, analytical, and prospective study. The study was conducted between March 2023 and October 2023 with a total of 400 parents, comprising 200 mothers and 200 fathers, who were admitted to the postnatal clinics of a university-affiliated training and research hospital in İzmir for delivery purposes. Data were collected using the “Individual Identification Form-Mother,” “Individual Identification Form-Father,” “Postpartum Parenting Behavior Scale (PPBS)” (The same scale was abbreviated as M-PPBS for mothers and F-PPBS for fathers), “Mother Breastfeeding Attitude Assessment Scale (M-BASS),” and “Father’s Breastfeeding Attitude (F-BA) and Participation in Breastfeeding (F-PB).” In the study, the t-test and one-way analysis of variance were used to compare the descriptive information and scores of the scales. Spearman correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between the scores of scales. The paired sample t-test was used to determine changes in mothers’ attitudes toward breastfeeding and fathers’ attitudes and participation in breastfeeding over time. Regression analysis was performed to investigate the effect of mothers’ and fathers’ parenting behaviors, fathers’ breastfeeding attitudes, and fathers’ participation on mothers’ breastfeeding attitudes.

RESULTS: The scores of M-PPBS and F-PPBS were 4.52 ± 1.43 and 4.13 ± 1.71, respectively. The M-BAAS scores were 120.18 ± 14.41 at the second follow-up and 119.71 ± 14.58 at the third follow-up (P > 0.05). The F-BA scores were 53.35 ± 5.98 at the second follow-up and 54.04 ± 6.14 at the third follow-up (P < 0.05). The F-PB scores were 53.25 ± 10.08 at the second follow-up and 52.55 ± 10.47 at the third follow-up (P > 0.05). It was determined that some sociodemographic characteristics affected the scores of M-PPBS, F-PPBS, M-BAAS, F-BA, and F-PB (Tables 2 and 4, P < 0.05). It was determined that there was a weakly significant positive correlation between M-PPBS and F-PPBS scores (r = 0.299; P < 0.05). There was a moderate, statistically significant positive correlation between F-BA and F-PB in both the second and third follow-ups (r = 0.314, 0.559; P < 0.05). According to the results of multiple regression analysis, it was found that an increase of 1 unit in the scores of the M-BAAS in the second follow-up increased the scores of the M-BAAS in the third follow-up by 0.7 units (B = 0.689; B = 0.703; P < 0.05, respectively). In the second follow-up, fathers’ attitudes toward and participation in breastfeeding predicted mothers’ attitudes toward breastfeeding (B = 0.630; B = 0.208; P < 0.05, respectively, Table 5).

CONCLUSION: Parents’ parenting behaviors influenced one another, and the findings indicated that fathers’ attitudes toward and participation in breastfeeding significantly predicted mothers’ attitudes toward breastfeeding. It is emphasized in this study that health professionals should actively engage fathers as key stakeholders in the lactation assessment process, rather than focusing solely on the mother. In this context, it is recommended that systematic inquiry directed at fathers be conducted and that the determinative influence of paternal support on the breastfeeding process in the postpartum period be integrated into clinical evaluation.

PMID:42619430 | DOI:10.1002/ijgo.71284

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Optimization of hospitalization duration and cost structure for chronic schizophrenia patients in psychiatric hospitals

Curr Med Res Opin. 2026 Aug 19:1-13. doi: 10.1080/03007995.2026.2719084. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Chronic schizophrenia patients in psychiatric hospitals often have prolonged stays, high insurance resource consumption, and low efficiency. Studies quantifying the joint optimization of payment and operational efficiency are lacking, complicating the trade-off between cost control and relapse prevention. This study aimed to identify factors associated with hospitalization duration and costs using real-world data and machine learning.

METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on inpatients with chronic schizophrenia admitted to Huai’an No.3 People’s Hospital from 2022 to 2024. Data on demographics, clinical features, comorbidities, medications, and insurance costs were collected. Factors were screened by descriptive, univariate, and Gamma stepwise regression. Machine learning models (Lasso, Random Forest, XGBoost) were built to predict length of stay, with SHAP used for feature interpretation.

RESULTS: A total of 3607 inpatients with chronic schizophrenia were enrolled. Univariate analysis revealed 29 significant variables; Gamma regression identified 18 independent factors. The rehabilitation treatment cost ratio was the strongest risk factor, and the examination cost ratio the strongest protective factor. The Random Forest model performed best (cross-validation R2=0.7143, test R2=0.7318). SHAP analysis showed total hospitalization cost and rehabilitation treatment cost ratio as core predictors.

CONCLUSION: This study identified key factors influencing hospitalization duration and costs in chronic schizophrenia, and developed an accurate and stable model that can support lean management in psychiatric hospitals.

PMID:42619426 | DOI:10.1080/03007995.2026.2719084

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Observer coverage and interaction rates determine the choice between design-based and machine learning bycatch estimators for rare species

Conserv Biol. 2026 Aug 19:e70374. doi: 10.1111/cobi.70374. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Robust estimates of the magnitude of protected species bycatch are essential for effective fisheries management and marine conservation. Existing bycatch estimation methods typically struggle to accurately and precisely estimate the bycatch of rare species as a result of the statistical assumptions necessary to overcome infrequent encounters and, often, low observer coverage. We compared the widely used Horvitz-Thompson design-based estimator with a machine learning framework for estimating protected species bycatch based on ensemble random forests. We simulated reduced observer coverage in the 100% observed Hawaii shallow-set pelagic longline fishery and compared the two estimation methods for five species: oceanic whitetip sharks (Carcharhinus longimanus), Laysan albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis), black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes), loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea). Machine learning-based estimates were more precise than design-based estimates for all species, but annual and long-term accuracy varied with bycatch rates and spatial clustering of interactions. The machine learning approach improved the precision of bycatch estimates for oceanic whitetip sharks (3.5% of sets with interaction) without reducing long-term accuracy. As interaction rates declined below this level, the ensemble random forests method introduced increasing bias and resulted in a preference for the design-based estimator in real-world applications. The ensemble random forests approach relaxed the trade-off between accurate, precise bycatch estimates and observer coverage for species with greater than 3% interaction rates. However, high observer coverage remains irreplaceable for effectively estimating bycatch for the rarest species, and the imprecision of design-based estimates should be accounted for in management decisions.

PMID:42619395 | DOI:10.1111/cobi.70374

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

In Vitro Evaluation of the Antifungal Activity of Salvia Leriifolia Leaf Hydroalcoholic Extract Compared to Nystatin and Fluconazole Against Candida albicans

Clin Exp Dent Res. 2026 Aug;12(4):e70436. doi: 10.1002/cre2.70436.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: With the rising incidence of fungal infections in recent years, Candida albicans has become the leading cause of oral fungal infections, ranging from superficial to systemic forms. The extensive use of antifungal medications has led to drug resistance and adverse effects, highlighting the growing need to explore medicinal plants. This study aimed to assess the antifungal activity of the hydroalcoholic extract of Salvia leriifolia leaves on laboratory strains of Candida albicans, comparing its effects with those of the standard antifungal drugs Nystatin and Fluconazole.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: This experimental study used 20 confirmed Candida albicans isolates. Malt extract agar and RPMI-1640 media were prepared according to standard protocols, and Salvia leriifolia extract was obtained via maceration. Fungal suspensions and stock solutions were prepared at defined concentrations, and MICs were determined using the microdilution broth method per CLSI-M27-A3 guidelines. Data were analyzed with SPSS.

RESULTS: Salvia leriifolia extract demonstrated antifungal activity against Candida albicans, with MIC values ranging from 500 to 1000 µg/mL and a geometric mean MIC of 901.3 µg/mL. In contrast, nystatin and fluconazole exhibited markedly lower MIC ranges (0.063-16 and 0.063-1 µg/mL, respectively) and geometric mean MICs of 0.297 and 0.308 µg/mL, respectively. Statistical analysis revealed significantly higher MIC values for the extract compared with both antifungal agents (p < 0.001, effect size = 0.87), whereas no significant difference was observed between nystatin and fluconazole (p = 0.638). Despite its lower potency, the extract showed moderate antifungal activity against Candida albicans.

CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that while the hydroalcoholic extract of Salvia leriifolia is less potent than nystatin and fluconazole, it is still capable of partially inhibiting the growth of Candida albicans. These results underscore the potential role of medicinal plants in the treatment of fungal infections, especially in cases involving drug resistance or undesirable side effects from conventional medications.

PMID:42619394 | DOI:10.1002/cre2.70436

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

External validation and comparison of the 2007 and 2021 Grobman models for predicting successful vaginal birth after cesarean: A retrospective cohort study

Int J Gynaecol Obstet. 2026 Aug 19. doi: 10.1002/ijgo.71326. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study externally validated and compared the performance of the antepartum 2007 and 2021 Grobman models for predicting successful vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) in a Vietnamese cohort.

METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included pregnant women with a single prior cesarean section, a term pregnancy, and fetal cephalic presentation, enrolled at Hue University of Medicine and Pharmacy Hospital between October 2023 and June 2025. Data from participants with a history of a single low-transverse cesarean section were collected for both models to predict VBAC success. Demographic and clinical data were collected, focusing on maternal age, body mass index (BMI), and delivery history. Statistical analyses included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate model performance.

RESULTS: Among the 147 participants, 65 (44.22%) had a successful VBAC. The two models showed comparable discrimination: the 2021 model yielded a numerically higher AUC (83.24%) than the 2007 model (79.83%), but the difference was not statistically significant (DeLong P = 0.115). At the operating points selected by the Youden index, sensitivity was similar (72.31% vs. 70.77%), whereas the 2021 model showed a numerically higher specificity (91.46% vs. 76.83%). The 2021 model also showed numerically higher positive predictive value and a lower Brier score, although both models were miscalibrated. DCA showed a numerically higher net benefit for the 2021 model across the examined threshold range.

CONCLUSION: The 2021 race-neutral Grobman model demonstrated discrimination comparable to the 2007 version, with a numerically higher specificity at a data-derived operating point and numerically closer calibration; these differences are descriptive rather than confirmed statistically, and both models require recalibration before routine use.

PMID:42619389 | DOI:10.1002/ijgo.71326

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

An acute crossover trial of passive movement training with and without blood flow restriction to determine the impact on postprandial glycaemia

Exp Physiol. 2026 Aug 19. doi: 10.1113/EP093866. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

During glucose uptake into muscle, GLUT-4 can translocate with stimulus from insulin or muscle contraction via exercise, but some exercise-intolerant populations are unable to benefit from improved glycaemic control. We investigated how passive movement training (PMT) and passive movement training with blood flow restriction (PMT+BFR) could be used as an alternative method. The effects on blood lactate and insulin were also investigated. Eleven healthy males (26.9 ± 8.3 years, 25.7 ± 2.1 kg/m2) undertook a crossover trial of three 150-min treatments, control (CTRL), PMT and PMT+BFR, on three separate study visits, separated by ≥24 h. Each participant arrived fasted and consumed a standardised high-carbohydrate meal (522 kcal, 112.5 g carbohydrate). The PMT protocol involved 30 min of intermittent bilateral knee extension/flexion (1 min:1 min work/rest) at an angular velocity of 180°/s through an 80° range of motion. PMT+BFR used a pressure calibrated at 80% arterial occlusion. Blood glucose and lactate were measured every 5 min, with insulin at 0, 30 and 60 min. Acute changes in muscle thickness were recorded using ultrasound pre- and post-intervention. There were no significant differences between the treatment groups for mean glucose (CTRL: 4.59 ± 0.48, PMT: 4.88 ± 0.82, PMT+BFR: 4.51 ± 0.90 mmol/L; P = 0.498). A statistically significant acute difference of muscle thickness (P = 0.00420) from pre- to post-treatment was detected in PMT+BFR. While PMT did not improve postprandial glycaemia with or without BFR, the acute increase in muscle thickness after PMT+BFR suggests that it may be useful in other applications.

PMID:42619381 | DOI:10.1113/EP093866

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Baseline Physiological Reserve Provides Greater Explanatory Value Than Discharge-Attained Strength Change for Early Postoperative Outcomes After Elective Abdominal Surgery

J Invest Surg. 2026 Dec;39(1):2719065. doi: 10.1080/08941939.2026.2719065. Epub 2026 Aug 19.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Acute perioperative handgrip strength change measured at discharge (Δacute) is often interpreted as a marker of vulnerability. However, it is discharge-anchored, influenced by peri-discharge conditions, and not measured at a standardized postoperative timepoint. We examined whether Δacute was independently associated with prolonged length of stay (LOS) after elective abdominal surgery once baseline physiological reserve was considered.

METHODS: Adults undergoing elective abdominal surgery were prospectively enrolled in a multicenter observational cohort. Handgrip strength (HGS) was assessed at admission and discharge, and frailty using the Fried phenotype. Δacute was defined as discharge minus admission HGS. The primary outcome was LOS >10 days. Associations were examined using correlation and multivariable logistic regression, with sensitivity analyses addressing extreme values and non-normal distributions.

RESULTS: Among 223 patients (median age, 65 years), 48 (21.5%) had prolonged LOS. Frailty status (OR 2.63, 95% CI 1.47-4.70) and oncologic surgery were independently associated with prolonged LOS, whereas admission HGS was not significant after adjustment. Δacute showed substantial interindividual variability, correlated inversely with admission HGS (r = -0.325, p < 0.001), and differed by surgical context, but was not associated with prolonged LOS in univariable or multivariable analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Discharge-anchored Δacute was not independently associated with prolonged LOS after accounting for baseline reserve and surgical context. Because both Δacute and LOS may be influenced by discharge timing and institutional practices, these findings do not establish that acute strength change reflects postoperative perturbation rather than intrinsic vulnerability.

PMID:42619380 | DOI:10.1080/08941939.2026.2719065

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Genomic prediction in quinoa across contrasting environments using statistical and machine learning models

Plant Genome. 2026 Sep;19(3):e70277. doi: 10.1002/tpg2.70277.

ABSTRACT

Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) is gaining global importance for its nutritional value and adaptability; however, breeding progress remains limited. Genomic selection (GS), combined with rapid generation cycles, offers a strategy to accelerate genetic improvement. We conducted whole-genome resequencing of 610 accessions and present the first evaluation of genomic prediction in quinoa evaluated across six field trials in Australia and Pakistan for seven phenological and yield-related traits. Using ∼1.8 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms, we compared four models-genomic best linear unbiased prediction, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, BayesC, and light gradient boosting machine-for genotype ranking under four cross-validation schemes: predicting new genotypes (CV1), sparse testing (CV2), leave-one-location-year-out (CV0), and across locations. Model performance was evaluated using Pearson’s correlation for overall accuracy and normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG@10) for ranking top performers. The four models were similar, with no method dominating across traits. NDCG@10 scores revealed that predictions remained useful for selecting superior genotypes even for difficult traits. Prediction accuracy was strongly associated with heritability and trait correlations across and within- location environments. Accuracy was highest for developmental traits and lowest for seed yield, while seed traits showed location-specific responses with higher accuracy in Australia. These findings support GS as a promising tool for quinoa breeding and provide benchmarks for global implementation.

PMID:42619371 | DOI:10.1002/tpg2.70277