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Nevin Manimala Statistics

How rising ICE activity influences the childcare workforce

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2026 May 26;123(21):e2602686123. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2602686123. Epub 2026 May 18.

ABSTRACT

Immigrants play a critical role in the US childcare workforce, yet little is known about how immigration enforcement shapes employment in this essential sector. We study how the sharp escalation in community-based Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity following President Trump’s inauguration in early 2025 affected childcare employment in the United States. Monthly data from the Current Population Survey are linked to compiled state-level ICE arrest records from September 2023 through September 2025, to ask how changes in enforcement intensity influence employment across childcare settings that differ in regulation and visibility. We find that increased ICE activity led to significant declines in employment among foreign-born women, with effects concentrated in center-based settings that are highly regulated and publicly visible. At the same time, employment in private household childcare increased, consistent with a reallocation toward less visible and less formal arrangements rather than a complete exit from the sector. These effects strengthened markedly after early 2025, a period characterized both by a sharp rise in nonprison ICE arrests and heightened public attention to immigration enforcement. Among native-born women, employment responses are limited in magnitude and confined to a limited number of specific care settings, providing little evidence of broad substitution for foreign-born workers. Overall, the results show that immigration enforcement reshapes not only the size but also the structure of the childcare workforce, with important potential implications for childcare access, labor markets, and families.

PMID:42150063 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2602686123

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Modeling Negative Symptom Domain Neurobiology: Protocol for an Observational, Transdiagnostic, Translational Study

JMIR Res Protoc. 2026 May 18;15:e92115. doi: 10.2196/92115.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Negative symptoms (NS) such as anhedonia (reduced pleasure), avolition (reduced motivation), asociality (social withdrawal), blunted affect (diminished emotional expression), and alogia (poverty of speech) are associated with poor functional outcomes in psychiatric and neurological disorders and are an unmet treatment need. Current medication primarily targets positive or affective symptoms, leaving NS neurobiology unaddressed. A critical research gap exists in understanding whether these symptoms share a common biological architecture across different diagnoses or whether they emerge from distinct pathological pathways.

OBJECTIVE: This observational, single-center study aims to characterize NS across a transdiagnostic sample of individuals with mental disorders and related conditions, with a particular focus on avolition, its biological correlates, and associated neurocognitive and electrophysiological profiles and the aim of determining whether particular NS consistently occupy central positions across disorders or centrality patterns differ by diagnosis. By linking these symptom profiles to underlying neurocognitive, electrophysiological, and genetic markers, the study seeks to disentangle shared versus disorder-specific mechanisms.

METHODS: In total, 300 participants with a primary diagnosis of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, unipolar depressive disorder, autism, or dementia will be recruited, with a target of at least 50 individuals in each diagnostic group. Over a 4-day schedule, participants will undergo clinical (Brief Negative Symptom Scale, Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, Personal and Social Performance Scale, Udvalg for Kliniske Undersøgelser Side Effect Rating Scale, and Barnes Akathisia Rating Scale), neurocognitive (Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia, and Temporal Experience of Pleasure Scale), and biological (resting-state electroencephalography and blood sampling for polygenic risk score) assessments. Network analysis will compute symptom centrality to determine if avolition acts as a transdiagnostic hub. Structural equation modeling will link network profiles to neurophysiological and genetic data. This methodology is designed to identify convergent biological markers, clarify avolition’s role in symptom heterogeneity, and refine understanding of NS as multidimensional phenomena beyond traditional diagnostic boundaries.

RESULTS: The initial version of the study protocol was developed in February 2024. The finalized protocol was completed on May 8, 2024, and updated on January 11, 2025, to incorporate minor methodological clarifications. Participant recruitment and data collection commenced on July 1, 2024, and are ongoing at the time of manuscript submission. By March 2026, the study had enrolled 286 participants. Data quality control and preliminary analyses are performed concurrently with data collection. Final statistical analyses and dissemination of results are planned following completion of the recruitment phase.

CONCLUSIONS: This study will provide critical insights into the characterization and underlying mechanisms of NS across psychiatric disorders. By focusing on avolition, reward processing, and their interaction with neurocognitive and social cognitive deficits, it will help identify potential biological and electrophysiological markers of NS. The findings may guide the development of more precise assessment tools and inform novel therapeutic strategies, with broad translational impact for improving outcomes in individuals with serious mental illnesses and related conditions.

PMID:42150051 | DOI:10.2196/92115

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Illicit Alcohol in Victorian Off-Licence Retailers: A Preliminary Observational Study

Drug Alcohol Rev. 2026 May;45(4):e70167. doi: 10.1111/dar.70167.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Illicit alcohol sales account for 90% of the alcohol-related lost tax revenue in Australia (unrecorded alcohol); however, there is a paucity of research on this segment of the alcohol market. It is currently unclear if illicit alcohol is widely available in Australia and whether it is safe for human consumption.

METHODS: In this preliminary investigation, to establish immediate availability, we visited four licensed alcohol retailers in high socio-economic areas of Melbourne, Victoria, during June, July and September 2025. We found and purchased three suspected illicit alcohol products and one control product and submitted all four products for chemical testing.

RESULTS: Three out of the four retailers we visited stocked suspected illicit alcohol products. These products were the cheapest products available in their category. Two of the products we tested contained both plasticizers and methanol at levels that far exceed food safety standards.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that illicit alcohol products are in circulation in Australia, and stocked alongside licit alcohol products by licensed retailers, in contravention of food safety, liquor and tax regulations. Regulations such as those in place in the European Union that routinise sampling and testing of food products could potentially reduce the likelihood of products such as these being stocked in stores; however, it is unclear how widely spread this practice is. There is an urgent need for trans-disciplinary research into the prevalence, nature and magnitude of illicit alcohol in Australia, to inform and justify a proactive policy approach that could curtail this market.

PMID:42150049 | DOI:10.1111/dar.70167

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Evaluation of the medical and social status of hundred-year centenarians in the Chelyabinsk region.

Adv Gerontol. 2026;39(1):154-159. doi: 10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.018.

ABSTRACT

The analysis of demographic trends reveals a sustained pattern of population aging. This process is associated with both declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. Despite these well-documented global demographic shifts, the health status of centenarians remains understudied. The aim of this research is to assess the medical and social status of centenarians in the Chelyabinsk Region. To investigate the health of centenarians, data extraction was performed for patients aged 100 years and older. The final database comprises 72 records detailing the health status and parameters of hundred-year centenarians in the Chelyabinsk Region. Each entry includes age, sex, diagnosis upon presentation, anthropometric measurements (height, weight, BMI), and a range of laboratory indicators from complete blood count and biochemical panels. The most prevalent conditions among the centenarian population of the Chelyabinsk Region belong to the following nosological groups: «I.67 Other cerebrovascular diseases» – recorded as either a primary or concomitant diagnosis in 65,27% of patients; «I.11 Hypertensive heart disease» – 51,39%; and «I.20 Angina pectoris» – 22,22%. These conditions were found in both the group of centenarians with disability and the group without this social status. In the group of patients without disability, the diagnosis «I.11 Hypertensive heart disease» as a primary diagnosis (46,5%) upon presentation to a healthcare facility is established statistically significantly more often than in the group of centenarians with the aforementioned social status (disability) (17,24%), p<0,05. A statistically significant difference exists in the number of clinical diagnoses between individuals with disability – 5 (4-6) and those without this status – 3 (2-3,5). This supports the assertion of a link between permanent loss of working capacity and polymorbidity (p<0,001). Venous blood glucose levels are statistically significantly higher in the group of hundred-year centenarians without disability (p<0,05).

PMID:42150037 | DOI:10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.018

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Resting-state functional connectivity differences of motor and cognitive impairments in elderly people.

Adv Gerontol. 2026;39(1):135-143. doi: 10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.016.

ABSTRACT

Motor and cognitive impairments in older adults living in long-term care facilities are characterized by high clinical heterogeneity and pose significant challenges for diagnosis and rehabilitation planning. The limited sensitivity of traditional clinical approaches to differentiating the leading component of functional decline limits the possibilities for informed personalization of rehabilitation interventions. The aim of this study was to identify resting-state functional connectivity patterns associated with clinical and rehabilitation profiles (motor, cognitive, and mixed). The cross-sectional study involved 60 residents of a nursing home (mean age 76±11,3 years), stratified into groups based on their predominant motor (n=21), cognitive (n=19), and mixed (n=20) profiles, using comprehensive clinical and functional testing. In total, the student provided most of the information in a state close to that of 164 people within the country; statistical analysis was conducted using power.

PMID:42150035 | DOI:10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.016

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Prognostic model of the course of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly: The role of signaling molecules.

Adv Gerontol. 2026;39(1):69-73. doi: 10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.007.

ABSTRACT

The most important socially significant disease is pulmonary tuberculosis, which is based on the development of granulomatous inflammation with the formation of fibrosis. In the elderly, it occurs with the features of pathomorphosis, due to the presence of comorbid pathology. The processes of development of coarse-fibrous connective tissue, sclerosis-fibrosis occur according to the general patterns with the involvement of the organ stroma, vessels and remodeling of the connective-tissue matrix, the study of which is impossible without the study of the relevant molecular markers. On the other hand, diagnosis and treatment are impossible without understanding the dynamics of the pathological process. Therefore, research aimed at predicting the development of pulmonary tuberculosis (especially in elderly patients) is undoubtedly relevant. The aim of the study – to create a prognostic model of the severity of the course of pulmonary tuberculosis in elderly patients. In the course of the study, the outcomes of treatment of 45 patients treated in Saint-Petersburg Research Institute of Phthisiopulmonology were analyzed. Based on the degree of activity of the tuberculous process by B.M.Ariel (1998), groups with pulmonary tuberculosis without progression and active inflammatory changes with progression were allocated. Quantitative assessment of the expression of signaling molecules (TIMP-1, NGF, CD44, CD51, CD68, CD83, Vit D) was performed using immunohistochemical morphometry and computer analysis of microscopic images. The prediction model was constructed using logistic regression. In the course of the study, the activity of monoclonal antibodies for the corresponding signaling molecules was studied: TIMP-1, NGF, CD44, CD51, CD68, CD83, Vit D, statistically significant differences in the relative area of expression of the following biological markers were established: NGF, CD68, CD83 depending on the degree of tuberculosis activity. Logistic regression was used to create a model for predicting the course of the tuberculosis process. Based on the numerical values of molecular markers (NGF, CD-68, and CD-83), a logistic regression equation was obtained that allows for the association of the severity of the disease with the levels of the markers. The sensitivity of the model was 85,7%, and the specificity was 87,5%. Thus, the obtained regression model based on the expression of molecular markers NGF, CD-68, and CD-83 allows for the prediction of the severity of pulmonary tuberculosis in elderly patients, which will enable the control of treatment in these patients.

PMID:42150026 | DOI:10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.007

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Using of biotechnical and medical systems of mechanical circulatory support in patients, including elderly patients, based on the analysis of the prevalence of heart failure and its cronicity in Russian Federation and globally.

Adv Gerontol. 2026;39(1):64-68. doi: 10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.006.

ABSTRACT

Heart failure, including chronic heart failure (CHF) is an inevitable progressive disease worldwide. In the developed countries the amount of patient with such disease is approximately 2% of total adult population. Besides the prevalence is increased from year to year, owing also to population ageing (increasing part of the elder people in total population). The article presents and analyzes data of morbidity and prevalence of heart failure (CHF) in patients including elderly patients in Russian Federation and globally. This review study aims to systematize the available modern scientific information about prevalence of heart failure (CHF) and evaluate requirements of using biotechnical and medical systems of mechanically circulatory support – LVAD in patients with CHF and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction.

PMID:42150025 | DOI:10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.006

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Association of kidney dysfunction biomarkers with risk factors for development of chronic heart failure in middle-aged and elderly individuals.

Adv Gerontol. 2026;39(1):55-63. doi: 10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.005.

ABSTRACT

Chronic heart failure (CHF) is the most common pathological condition in geriatric practice. The increasing prevalence of CHF with age is driven by the rapid global rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity, arterial hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease (CAD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and chronic kidney disease (CKD); their combination is particularly unfavorable. Objective: To investigate the relationship between biomarkers of renal dysfunction and CHF risk factors in middle-aged and elderly individuals with NCDs. This retrospective study included 357 patients (173 men, 184 women) aged 45-74 years. Anthropometric, clinical, laboratory, and instrumental data were analyzed for all patients. The entire cohort was divided into two groups: group 1 – patients with NCDs and LVH (n=136); group 2 – patients with NCDs without LVH (n=221). Results showed that, compared to patients without LVH, those with LVH had significantly higher age, years, systolic blood pressure, prevalence of CAD, cerebrovascular disease, CKD, fibrinogen, cystatin C, creatinine, and proteinuria. Conversely, they had significantly lower hemoglobin levels, red blood cell count, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and left ventricular (LV) E/A ratio. In middle-aged and elderly patients with NCDs, statistically significant positive correlations were found between cystatin C levels and blood triglyceride concentration (r=0,163, p<0,05), as well as between cystatin C levels and LV diastolic filling deceleration time (r=0,150, p<0,05). Additionally, eGFR was correlated with LV E/A ratio (r=0,181, p<0,05), LV early diastolic filling deceleration time (r=-0,211, p<0,05), and right ventricular deceleration time (r=-0,166, p<0,05). The findings may serve as cardiorenal markers in implementing a geriatric approach and in developing algorithms for multidisciplinary care for middle-aged and elderly patients with NCDs.

PMID:42150024 | DOI:10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.005

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The demand for innovative services by senior citizens of Saint-Petersburg: periods of pandemic and post-pandemic. Part 2.

Adv Gerontol. 2026;39(1):36-43. doi: 10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.003.

ABSTRACT

In the article, the authors continue their research into the sector of services for the elderly sector as a segment of the silver economy market. The authors compared two waves of surveys on the demand among elderly citizens of St. Petersburg for innovative services, which were conducted during and after the pandemic. The findings show that basic human needs remain the primary needs at all times (in this case, the delivery of food, essential goods, medicines, etc., as well as assistance in everyday life). In the post-pandemic period, the need to teach older people information technology skills has emerged as a priority in terms of importance (along with the answer «assistance in everyday life and household»). The study highlights the limitations of access to digital social services for older people.

PMID:42150022 | DOI:10.34922/AE.2026.39.1.003

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Economic Impact Evaluation of COVID-19 Public Health Management Across Countries

Int J Health Plann Manage. 2026 May 18. doi: 10.1002/hpm.70089. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 crisis has significantly impacted global economic growth. Assessing the economic impacts of various policies is crucial to better public health management (PHM). To incorporate specific PHM policies into a unified framework, prevention and control intensity (PCI) is introduced to quantify the intensity of PHM. Under different PCI, we construct a statistical framework to estimate each economy’s counterfactual output, thereby providing two indicators to assess the effectiveness of PHM adopted by certain economies. Empirical analysis measures the effectiveness of PHM in each of the 137 economies during COVID-19 in 2020. Further analysis is conducted through robustness tests and regression discontinuity design. Aggregated results from 137 economies indicate that COVID-19 may have caused global economic losses far exceeding 5.47 trillion US dollars in 2020. Statistical indicators reveal that 39 economies reduced economic loss through PHM, while 25 economies achieved relatively ideal economic output targets. These findings suggest that moderate prevention and control measures can significantly reduce economic losses and highlight the necessity for most countries to strengthen their PHM strategies to enhance economic resilience and recovery.

PMID:42150014 | DOI:10.1002/hpm.70089