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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe

Nat Commun. 2023 Jul 22;14(1):4434. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40102-6.

ABSTRACT

European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applied to objectively identified extratropical cyclone footprints from a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under different future socio-economic scenarios. Here we show storm frequency increases across northern and central Europe, where the meteorological storm severity index more than doubles. The population-weighted storm severity index more than triples, due to projected population increases. Adapting to the increasing wind speeds using future damage thresholds, the population weighted storm severity index increases are only partially offset, despite a reduction in the meteorological storm severity through adaptation. Through following lower emissions scenarios, the future increase in risk is reduced, with the population-weighted storm severity index increase more than halved.

PMID:37481655 | DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-40102-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Optimizing acidizing design and effectiveness assessment with machine learning for predicting post-acidizing permeability

Sci Rep. 2023 Jul 22;13(1):11851. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-39156-9.

ABSTRACT

Formation damage poses a widespread challenge in the oil and gas industry, leading to diminished permeability, flow rates, and overall well productivity. Acidizing is a commonly employed technique aimed at mitigating damage and enhancing permeability. In this study, to predict the permeability after acidizing in oil and gas reservoirs, three machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks, random forest, and XGBoost, along with genetic programming were used to estimate permeability changes after acidizing. These models are utilized to estimate permeability changes following acidizing operations. Training of the models involved a dataset comprising 218 acidizing operations conducted in diverse reservoirs across Iran. The input parameters, namely permeability, porosity, skin factor, calcite mineral fraction, acid injection rate, and injected acid volume, were optimized through the use of a genetic algorithm. Statistical and graphical analysis of the results demonstrates that genetic programming outperformed the other machine learning techniques, yielding superior performance with R square and RMSE values of 0.82 and 17.65, respectively. Nevertheless, the other models also exhibited commendable performance, surpassing an R square value of 0.73. The post-acidizing permeability data obtained from core flooding experiments conducted on carbonate and sandstone cores was utilized to validate the models. The genetic programming model demonstrates an average error of 21.1%. The evaluation of post-acidizing permeability using genetic programming, in comparison with the results obtained from the core-flood test, revealed errors of 22.95% and 32.4% for carbonate and sandstone cores, respectively. Furthermore, a comparison between the calculated post-acidizing permeability derived from the GP model and previous studies indicated errors within the range of 8.6-26.59%. The findings highlight the potential of genetic programming and machine learning algorithms in accurately predicting post-acidizing permeability, thereby aiding in acidizing design, effectiveness assessment, and ultimately enhancing oil and gas production rates.

PMID:37481625 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-39156-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effectiveness of iodine for continuous decontamination of dental unit waterline

BDJ Open. 2023 Jul 22;9(1):34. doi: 10.1038/s41405-023-00160-w.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Dental Unit Waterlines (DUWLs) are contaminated by various species of microorganisms. DUWLs should be disinfected appropriately to control microbial contamination. This study investigated the effectiveness of devices continuously releasing iodine to control microbial contamination in DUWLs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten dental chair units (DCU) at Chulalongkorn University were randomized into the iodine and control groups. After setting iodine treatment devices, the DCU was allowed to operate normally. 25 ml of water from airotors lines were collected weekly for enumerating bacteria. The viability of biofilms in DUWLs was quantified by ATP testing kit. The amount of iodine released into the procedural water was also quantified.

RESULTS: The continuous presence of iodine could significantly control bacterial contamination in the DUWL to be less than 500 CFU/mL, the standard level recommended by the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Iodine treatment can reduce bacterial CFU up to 98-100%. Biofilm viability in the iodine group was slightly lower than that of the control group though not statistically significant. After eleven months, the average iodine release was measured to be 3.6 ppm which is still effective in controlling bacterial contamination.

CONCLUSION: Continuously supplying iodine in DUWLs effectively controls microbial contamination.

PMID:37481614 | DOI:10.1038/s41405-023-00160-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluation and comparison of pharmacokinetic profiles and safety of two extended-release buprenorphine formulations in common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus)

Sci Rep. 2023 Jul 22;13(1):11864. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-38973-2.

ABSTRACT

While sustained-release buprenorphine (BSR) is used as a long-lasting opioid analgesic in common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus), there are no published studies on pharmaceutical-grade extended-release buprenorphine options such as Ethiqa XR (EXR) for this species. However, BSR is a compounded product and has been reported to cause injection site reactions in multiple species, including marmosets. Additionally, now with the availability of EXR, a pharmaceutical-grade veterinary product, the use of BSR in laboratory animals is not compliant with the Guide for the Care and Use of Laboratory Animals (Guide) unless scientifically justified and approved by the IACUC. We compared pharmacokinetic and safety profiles of BSR (0.15 mg/kg) and EXR (0.1-0.2 mg/kg) administered subcutaneously to adult marmosets. Blood was collected by venipuncture of the saphenous vein at multiple time points (0.25-72 h) and analyzed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). EXR between 0.1 and 0.2 mg/kg resulted in a dose-dependent increase in Cmax (1.43-2.51 ng/mL) and were not statistically different from BSR (1.82 ng/mL). Tmax, lambdaz, and t1/2 were not statistically different between formulations. Mean plasma buprenorphine concentrations for BSR and EXR exceeded the therapeutic threshold (0.1 ng/mL) within 0.25 h and lasted for > 72 h. Mild sedation, but neither respiratory depression nor ataxia, was observed for both formulations. BSR injection sites had significantly higher histopathological scores compared to EXR. Video recordings for monitoring drug-induced behavioral changes showed increased animal activity levels after BSR and EXR versus saline controls. Norbuprenorphine, a buprenorphine metabolite associated with respiratory depression, was detected in the plasma after BSR and EXR administration as well as by in vitro liver microsome assays. In conclusion, we recommend using EXR over BSR as a long-lasting buprenorphine analgesic in marmosets because EXR is a pharmaceutical-grade formulation that is compliant with FDA guidelines and the Guide as well as exhibits comparable PK and safety profiles as BSR.

PMID:37481609 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-38973-2

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Longitudinal study of the inverse relationship between Parkinson’s disease and cancer in Korea

NPJ Parkinsons Dis. 2023 Jul 22;9(1):116. doi: 10.1038/s41531-023-00562-5.

ABSTRACT

Despite growing epidemiological evidence, the relationship between Parkinson’s disease (PD) and cancer has not been conclusively demonstrated, and related studies are scarce in the Asian population. We aimed to determine the association between PD and subsequent development of various cancers from longitudinal data of a representative sample of Korean adults aged ≥40 years. We retrospectively identified 8381 patients diagnosed with PD from 2002 to 2019 using claims data among 514,866 people of random samples from the Korean National Health Insurance database. We sampled 33,524 age-, sex-, income-, and residential area-matched participants without PD from the same database. The longitudinal associations between PD and overall cancer, as well as 10 common types of cancer, were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of all cancer types was 0.63 (95% confidence interval = 0.57-0.69) in patients with PD compared with matched controls. The aHRs of gastric, thyroid, colorectal, lung, hepatic, and pancreatic cancer and hematological malignancy were 0.69 (0.56-0.85), 0.60 (0.39-0.93), 0.56 (0.44-0.70), 0.71 (0.58-0.84), 0.64 (0.48-0.86), 0.37 (0.23-0.60), and 0.56 (0.36-0.87), respectively. The associations of bladder, gallbladder and biliary duct, and kidney cancer with PD were not statistically significant. Our findings show inverse associations between overall cancer and most cancer types in patients with PD. These inverse associations and their pathogeneses merit further investigation.

PMID:37481603 | DOI:10.1038/s41531-023-00562-5

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

How do spine surgeons cope with psychological distress: results of a cross-sectional study

Neurosurg Rev. 2023 Jul 22;46(1):182. doi: 10.1007/s10143-023-02088-z.

ABSTRACT

Cross Sectional Study/Online Survey. In this study, we sought to assess stress, psychological distress, resilience, and coping strategies among spine surgeons in German-speaking countries. Recent studies have reported high rates of stress and burnout among surgeons. A survey via Survey Monkey™ was conducted among spine surgeons practicing in German-speaking countries using validated questionnaires for perceived stress, mental burden, resilience, and quality of life. Data on working situation and demographics were also collected. 582 surgeons responded to the survey, representing 15% of those surveyed. 79% of respondents were satisfied with their professional success. Mental burden was higher than in the general population, as was perceived stress. Chairpersons were exposed to the lowest levels of perceived stress and mental burden. Mental distress was high (GHQ ≥ 12) in 59% of residents and 27% chairpersons. Self-reported psychological resilience was higher than levels found in the general population and highest among chairpersons. Quality of life was comparable to levels reported in the general population. There were statistically significant correlations between perceived stress and mental burden scores (r s = 0.65, p < 0.001). Career level (senior physicians vs. residents, OR 0.26; 95% CI 0.10-0.66), perceived stress (OR 1.54; 95% CI 1.33-1.77), self-reported resilience (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.33-0.84), and mental composite score (SOR 0.86; 95% CI 0.83-0.90) were predictors of high mental burden. There was no interaction between perceived stress and resilience on mental burden (p = 0.835). Spine surgeons are exposed to higher levels of stress than the general population, which are associated with higher mental distress. More professional experience and higher levels of psychological resilience are associated with lower levels of stress.

PMID:37481596 | DOI:10.1007/s10143-023-02088-z

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Adverse perinatal outcomes attributable to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2020: Systematic review and meta-analyses

Commun Med (Lond). 2023 Jul 22;3(1):103. doi: 10.1038/s43856-023-00331-8.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Maternal HIV infection and antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) are associated with increased risks of adverse perinatal outcomes. The vast majority of pregnant women living with HIV (WLHIV) reside in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the burden of adverse perinatal outcomes attributable to HIV and ARVs in sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2020.

METHODS: We conduct a systematic review of studies on the association of pregnant WLHIV with adverse perinatal outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. We perform random-effects meta-analyses to determine the risk difference (attributable risk, AR) of perinatal outcomes among WLHIV receiving no ARVs, monotherapy, or combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiated antenatally or preconception, compared to HIV-negative women. We estimate numbers of perinatal outcomes attributable to HIV and ARVs by combining the AR values with numbers of WLHIV receiving different ARV regimens in each country in sub-Saharan Africa annually between 1990 and 2020.

RESULTS: We find that WLHIV receiving no ARVs or cART initiated antenatally or preconception, but not monotherapy, have an increased risk of preterm birth (PTB), low birthweight (LBW) and small for gestational age (SGA), compared to HIV-negative women. Between 1990 and 2020, 1,921,563 PTBs, 2,119,320 LBWs, and 2,049,434 SGAs are estimated to be attributable to HIV and ARVs in sub-Saharan Africa, mainly among WLHIV receiving no ARVs, while monotherapy and preconception and antenatal cART averted many adverse outcomes. In 2020, 64,585 PTBs, 58,608 LBWs, and 61,112 SGAs were estimated to be attributable to HIV and ARVs, the majority among WLHIV receiving preconception cART.

CONCLUSIONS: As the proportion of WLHIV receiving preconception cART increases, the burden of adverse perinatal outcomes among WLHIV in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain high.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021248987.

PMID:37481594 | DOI:10.1038/s43856-023-00331-8

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Generation of synthetic microstructures containing casting defects: a machine learning approach

Sci Rep. 2023 Jul 22;13(1):11852. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-38719-0.

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a new strategy to generate synthetic samples containing casting defects. Four samples of Inconel 100 containing casting defects such as shrinkages and pores have been characterized using X-ray tomography and are used as reference for this application. Shrinkages are known to be tortuous in shape and more detrimental for the mechanical properties of materials, especially metal fatigue, whereas pores can be of two types: broken shrinkage pores with arbitrary shape and gaseous pores of spherical shape. For the generation of synthetic samples, an integrated module of Spatial Point Pattern (SPP) analysis and deep learning techniques such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are used. The SPP analysis describes the spatial distributions of casting defects in material space, whereas GANs and CNNs generate a defect of arbitrary morphology very close to real defects. SPP analysis reveals the existence of two different void nucleation mechanisms during metal solidification associated to shrinkages and pores. Our deep learning model successfully generates casting defects with defect size ranging from 100 µm to 1.5 mm and of very realistic shapes. The entire synthetic microstructure generation process respects the global defect statistics of reference samples and the generated samples are validated by statistically comparing with real samples.

PMID:37481577 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-38719-0

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Quantification of identifying cognitive impairment using olfactory-stimulated functional near-infrared spectroscopy with machine learning: a post hoc analysis of a diagnostic trial and validation of an external additional trial

Alzheimers Res Ther. 2023 Jul 22;15(1):127. doi: 10.1186/s13195-023-01268-9.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We aimed to quantify the identification of mild cognitive impairment and/or Alzheimer’s disease using olfactory-stimulated functional near-infrared spectroscopy using machine learning through a post hoc analysis of a previous diagnostic trial and an external additional trial.

METHODS: We conducted two independent, patient-level, single-group, diagnostic interventional trials (original and additional trials) involving elderly volunteers (aged > 60 years) with suspected declining cognitive function. All volunteers were assessed by measuring the oxygenation difference in the orbitofrontal cortex using an open-label olfactory-stimulated functional near-infrared spectroscopy approach, medical interview, amyloid positron emission tomography, brain magnetic resonance imaging, Mini-Mental State Examination, and Seoul Neuropsychological Screening Battery.

RESULTS: In total, 97 (original trial) and 36 (additional trial) elderly volunteers with suspected decline in cognitive function met the eligibility criteria. The statistical model reported classification accuracies of 87.3% in patients with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease in internal validation (original trial) but 63.9% in external validation (additional trial). The machine learning algorithm achieved 92.5% accuracy with the internal validation data and 82.5% accuracy with the external validation data. For the diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment, machine learning performed better than statistical methods with internal (86.0% versus 85.2%) and external validation data (85.4% versus 68.8%).

INTERPRETATION: In two independent trials, machine learning models using olfactory-stimulated oxygenation differences in the orbitofrontal cortex were superior in diagnosing mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease compared to classic statistical models. Our results suggest that the machine learning algorithm is stable across different patient groups and increases generalization and reproducibility.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Research Information Service (CRiS) of Republic of Korea; CRIS numbers, KCT0006197 and KCT0007589.

PMID:37481573 | DOI:10.1186/s13195-023-01268-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Study of the gut microbiome in Egyptian patients with Parkinson’s Disease

BMC Microbiol. 2023 Jul 22;23(1):196. doi: 10.1186/s12866-023-02933-7.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Recently, an important relationship between Parkinson’s disease and the gut microbiota, through the brain-gut axis interactions, has been established. Previous studies have declared that alterations in the gut microbiota have a great impact on the pathogenesis and clinical picture of Parkinson’s disease (PD). The present study aimed to identify the gut microbiome that is likely related to Parkinson’s disease as well as their possible relation to clinical phenotypes.

METHODS: Thirty patients with Parkinson’s disease, who presented to the Parkinson’s disease Neurology Clinic of Alexandria University Hospital were enrolled in our study. A cross-matching control group of 35 healthy subjects of similar age and sex were included. Stool specimens were taken from each. Quantitative SYBR Green Real-Time PCR was done for the identification and quantitation of selected bacterial phyla, genera and/or species.

RESULTS: There was a significant increase in Bacteroides and a significant decrease of Firmicutes and Firmicutes / Bacteroidetes ratio and Bifidobacteria in PD patients. Although Prevotella was decreased among PD patients relative to the healthy control, the difference was not statistically significant. Comparing the PD clinical phenotypes with the control group, the Mixed phenotype had significantly higher Bacteroides, Tremors predominant had lower Firmicutes and Firmicutes / Bacteroidetes ratio, and both tremors and postural instability and gait disability (PIGD) phenotypes had lower Bifidobacteria. However, there was no statistically significant difference between these phenotypes. Furthermore, when comparing tremors and non-tremors predominant phenotypes; Lactobacilli showed a significant decrease in non-tremors predominant phenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS: The current study showed evidence of changes in the gut microbiome of Parkinson’s disease patients compared to the healthy controls. These observations may highlight the importance of the identification of microbiome and specific bacterial changes that can be targeted for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.

PMID:37481569 | DOI:10.1186/s12866-023-02933-7