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Nevin Manimala Statistics

MASCC score and neutropenic complications: what is the likelihood?

Support Care Cancer. 2026 May 16;34(6):546. doi: 10.1007/s00520-026-10786-9.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) Risk Index is the most widely used tool for stratifying febrile neutropenic cancer patients as low or high risk for serious complications. Studies evaluating its discriminative performance have relied predominantly on sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and c-statistics-metrics that are mathematically elegant but have limited direct utility in clinical decision-making at the bedside.

METHODS: Sensitivity and specificity data from Rivest et al. [13], the original Klastersky et al. derivation study [3], and the Zheng et al. meta-analysis [10] were used to calculate positive and negative likelihood ratios. Posttest probabilities were derived using Bayesian updating (pretest odds × LR = posttest odds), with a cohort pretest probability of complications of 35%. Likelihood ratios for procalcitonin (Ahn et al.) were applied sequentially to demonstrate the compounding of independent predictors.

RESULTS: Applying Rivest et al. data in the inverted framing (i.e., predicting complication presence), a MASCC score > 21 yields a posttest probability of neutropenic complications of approximately 22%, and MASCC < 21 yields 65%. When procalcitonin ≥ 0.5 ng/mL is added to a high-risk MASCC score, the posttest probability rises to 85%; when procalcitonin is negative in a low-risk patient, it falls to 11%. Likelihood ratios varied meaningfully across Klastersky, Rivest, and Zheng (LR + range: 1.98-4.00; LR – range: 0.29-0.51), reflecting heterogeneity in populations, outcome definitions, and study settings.

CONCLUSIONS: Unlike sensitivity/specificity and predictive values, LRs are relatively independent of outcome prevalence, making them more transportable across clinical settings, though they are not immune to population and spectrum effects, stopping at sensitivity, specificity, ROC curves, and mathematical completeness but clinical incompleteness. Clinicians, who are the end-users of these tools, deserve the metric that speaks their language: the updated probability that this patient, in front of them, will experience harm.

PMID:42142265 | DOI:10.1007/s00520-026-10786-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Targeted metabolomics of organic and amino acids in giraffe milk during mid- to late-lactation

Metabolomics. 2026 May 16;22(3):76. doi: 10.1007/s11306-026-02455-z.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: At the end of lactation (mammary involution), dynamic changes in milk components occur in all mammals. The time to reach complete cessation varies among taxa and species. The involution of cows, sheep, and goats (Bovidae) has been reported, but limited information is available on giraffes.

OBJECTIVES: Characterise organic acids and amino acids in the milk of giraffes at involution.

METHODS: Milk was obtained from five giraffes. A LC-MS/MS metabolomics approach was followed, and statistical analysis of the data was done using MetaboAnalyst 6.0.

RESULTS: There were 38 organic acids and 45 amino acids measured in the giraffe milk. The organic acids indicate a decrease in Krebs cycle intermediates. Lower citrate levels are associated with lower lactose levels, indicating reduced osmotic regulation. Lower uracil and orotic acid indicate decreased pyrimidine synthesis and eventual nucleotide synthesis. Increased amino acid content is not devoted to protein synthesis, but to other functions, specifically as antioxidants, redox buffering, and cytoprotection. Increased histidine, serine and methionine promote protein degradation and one-carbon metabolism. Lysine catabolites lead to decreased levels of energy metabolites and to stress adaptation. Aromatic amino acids modulate the supply of immune and neuroactive metabolites.

CONCLUSIONS: During involution, the regulation of organic acids suggests reduced Krebs cycle activity, indicating a transition from high biosynthetic to catabolic activity. Likewise, amino acids have other functions, specifically antioxidant, redox-buffering, and cytoprotection.

PMID:42142263 | DOI:10.1007/s11306-026-02455-z

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Adherence to 24-hour movement guidelines and mortality risks in US cancer survivors: a national cohort study

Support Care Cancer. 2026 May 16;34(6):545. doi: 10.1007/s00520-026-10753-4.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: While physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep have individually been linked to long-term outcomes in cancer survivors, few studies have evaluated their synergistic effects across a full 24-h period. This study aimed to examine the association between adherence to the Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines and mortality risk in a nationally representative sample of US cancer survivors.

METHODS: Data from 2551 cancer survivors participating in the 2007-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. Adherence to the 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for aerobic physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep was summed to categorize participants into four groups. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality.

RESULTS: The proportions of participants meeting no, one, two, and three guidelines were 14.4%, 38.6%, 34.4%, and 12.6%, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 70 months, 617 deaths occurred, of which 261 were attributed to cancer. Compared to those meeting no guideline, HRs (95% CIs) for those meeting one, two, and all three guidelines were 0.72 (0.55-0.95), 0.59 (0.43-0.81), and 0.55 (0.38-0.81), respectively, for all-cause mortality, and 0.47 (0.29-0.76), 0.53 (0.33-0.85), and 0.22 (0.10-0.49), respectively, for cancer-specific mortality. Subgroup analysis showed that the association between cumulative adherence to the guidelines and all-cause mortality was stronger among individuals with a body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2.

CONCLUSIONS: Greater integrated adherence to the 24-h movement guidelines was associated with a progressive reduction in mortality risk among US cancer survivors, especially those with obesity.

PMID:42142261 | DOI:10.1007/s00520-026-10753-4

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Transanal irrigation for low anterior resection syndrome treatment: international multicentre randomized clinical trial

BJS Open. 2026 May 12;10(3):zrag022. doi: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrag022.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Long-term bowel dysfunction can impact a significant proportion of patients following anterior resection. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of transanal irrigation (TAI) to treat low anterior resection syndrome.

METHODS: Adults (≥ 18 years) with major low anterior resection syndrome (score > 30) at least 12 months after low anterior resection were enrolled at four European centres. Eligible patients were randomized 1 : 1 using block randomization to the TAI group or best supportive care group. The primary endpoint was the feasibility of TAI measured by treatment adherence or switch of therapy. Secondary endpoints included bowel function, quality of life and study-specific patient satisfaction questions. Outcome evaluators and the statistical team were blinded to allocation, whereas participants and caregivers were unblinded.

RESULTS: Forty-one patients were randomized, of which 40 (19 TAI; 21 best supportive care) completed follow-up; 1 patient in the TAI group was excluded due to fistula surgery. At 12 months, low anterior resection syndrome (median 3 (range 0-39) versus 36 (2-42); P < 0.001) and Wexner scores (median 0 (0-15) versus 13 (4-20); P < 0.001) were significantly lower in the TAI group compared with the control group. The Measure Yourself Medical Outcome Profile score was lower in the TAI group after 3 months (median 2 (0-11) versus 11 (7-12); P < 0.001). In addition, patients in the TAI group achieved higher Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center Bowel Function Instrument scores after 12 months (median 89 (37-90) versus 39 (28-61); P < 0.001). Adherence was high, with 15 (75%) maintaining daily irrigation, and patient satisfaction measures favoured TAI. Two mild procedure-related adverse events (tenesmus, dizziness) were reported.

CONCLUSIONS: This randomized clinical feasibility study confirms that TAI is feasible and has high acceptability for patients. It leads to better functional outcomes and improvements in quality of life compared with the best supportive care for patients with low anterior resection syndrome.

REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05920681 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov).

PMID:42141911 | DOI:10.1093/bjsopen/zrag022

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Missing Data Essentials Part 1: Detecting and Evaluating Patterns of Missingness in Longitudinal Cardiovascular Studies

Eur J Cardiovasc Nurs. 2026 May 16:zvag130. doi: 10.1093/eurjcn/zvag130. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Missing data are common in cardiovascular nursing and allied health research, especially in longitudinal studies. Common problems associated with missing data are reduced sample size, reduced statistical power and precision, and potentially biased results. There are several design strategies that can help minimize missing data including minimizing unnecessary items and incorporating reminders. It is important to understand common types of missingness, including item nonresponse, item-level missingness, wave nonresponse, and structural missingness, and to understand common mechanisms of missingness, including missing completely at random, missing at random, and missing not at random. This methods paper provides worked examples to illustrate several of these design and methodological considerations.

PMID:42141903 | DOI:10.1093/eurjcn/zvag130

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Clinical and economic benefits of seasonal COVID-19 vaccination in Germany: results from the ROUTINE-COV19 Study, September 2022 to March 2024

Euro Surveill. 2026 Apr;31(15). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.15.2500672.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUNDVaccinations against COVID-19 were integrated into routine care in Germany in April 2023. However, evidence of the impact of seasonal vaccination remains limited.AIMTo assess the clinical and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccination in routine care during the early SARS-CoV-2-endemic phase in Germany.METHODSA retrospective cohort study using statutory health insurance data from two German federal states (Saxony and Thuringia), covering over 3 million individuals, was conducted. Adults aged ≥ 18 years vaccinated against COVID-19 between 1 September and 30 November 2023 were matched 1:1 with unvaccinated individuals using propensity scores. Outcomes during the 4-month follow-up included occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, long COVID, other respiratory infections, hospitalisations, mortality, healthcare costs and indirect costs caused by sick leave. Rate and hazard ratios (RR, HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Sensitivity analyses tested robustness.RESULTSA total of 146,132 individuals (73,066 per group) were matched. COVID-19 vaccination was associated with reduced rates of long COVID (RR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.26-0.70), respiratory infections (RR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.87-0.95) and COVID-19-related hospitalisations (RR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.31-0.54). All-cause mortality was 25% lower among COVID-19-vaccinated individuals (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.70-0.82). Healthcare costs were lower in the vaccinated cohort, particularly for inpatient care, e.g. EUR 1 million savings in COVID-19-related hospitalisations. Indirect costs caused by sick leave were also reduced by EUR 1.3 million.CONCLUSIONSeasonal COVID-19 vaccinations in routine care settings were associated with substantial clinical and economic benefits. These real-world findings support continued implementation of national immunisation recommendations during the endemic phase of SARS-CoV-2 circulation.

PMID:42141891 | DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.15.2500672

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Surveillance and vaccine effectiveness of pertussis, the Netherlands, 2012 to 2024, with an unprecedented surge in 2023 and 2024

Euro Surveill. 2026 Apr;31(15). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.15.2500919.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUNDA surge in pertussis occurred in the Netherlands in 2023-24. Infant vaccination uptake decreased from 95% in 2011 to ca 86% in 2024. Maternal vaccination was introduced in 2019, with uptake ca 70%.AIMTo describe pertussis epidemiological trends in the Netherlands.METHODSWe conducted a retrospective study using pertussis notification data from 2012 to 2024 and estimated infant and maternal vaccine effectiveness (VE) with the screening method.RESULTSDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, pertussis notifications dropped from ca 6,000 in 2013-19 to 79 in 2021 (incidence ca 35 to < 0.01/100,000 population). Notifications surged from May 2023, peaking in March 2024, resulting in 18,208 notifications in 2024 (102/100,000). Notifications and hospitalisations in 2024 were highest among infants aged 0-5 months (573 and 304/100,000) followed by infants aged 6-11 months (446 and 92/100,000). Annually, 0-2 deaths were reported; in 2023-24, 10 deaths were reported (6 infants, 4 ≥ 60-year-olds). In 2024, 83% of mothers of notified infants aged 0-2 months were unvaccinated. In 2020-24, maternal VE against pertussis in infants aged 0-2 months was 91%. In 2012-24 primary series VE was 98% at age 1, 92% at age 3, 92% post-booster at age 5, and 71% at age 9 years.CONCLUSIONLow population immunity after 2 years of reduced circulation likely contributed to the highest pertussis incidence ever recorded in the Netherlands, posing a particular threat to unprotected infants. Maternal and infant VE are high, underscoring the public health priority of enhancing vaccination uptake.

PMID:42141889 | DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.15.2500919

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Large outbreak of group B invasive meningococcal disease in young adults in South East England, March 2026

Euro Surveill. 2026 Apr;31(15). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.15.2600288.

ABSTRACT

An unusually large outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease affecting young adults occurred in South East England between 13 and 18 March 2026, with 21 confirmed cases including two fatalities. Thirteen cases were university students and 19 had attended the same nightclub over a 3-day period. The outbreak strain was a distinct genome within the previously seen type B: P1.12-1,16-183: F1-5: ST-485 (cc41/44). Over 13,000 chemoprophylaxis doses and 11,000 meningococcal B vaccinations were provided to possible contacts.

PMID:42141888 | DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.15.2600288

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Use of the Workbook Method to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infections in the European Union and European Economic Area, 2022

Euro Surveill. 2026 Apr;31(14). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.14.2500322.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUNDUp-to-date estimates of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence in both general and key populations are challenging to obtain because of underdiagnosis, heterogeneous surveillance systems and underrepresentation of key populations.AIMWe aimed to test the Workbook Method to estimate chronic HBV prevalence in 2022 across the EU/EEA, by country and among men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and migrants.METHODSWe used the Robert Koch Institute’s version of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Workbook Method to generate HBV prevalence estimates for each EU/EEA country and for MSM, PWID and migrants within each country. We combined data on population size and HBV prevalence for each population group gathered from scientific sources and reviewed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s hepatitis national contact points.RESULTSOverall, 0.7% (lower bound-upper bound: 0.5-0.9%) of the EU/EEA population (3,226,000 (2,397,000-4,149,000) individuals) were estimated to be living with HBV in 2022. National HBV prevalence ranged from 0.1% (0.1-1.0%) to 3.1% (2.8-3.3%). Prevalence estimates varied from 0.8% (0.5-1.0%) to 10.5% (9.3-11.9%) for migrants, < 0.1% to 8.7% (lower and upper bounds not available) for PWID and from < 0.1% (< 0.1- < 0.1%) to 10.5% (10.2-10.8%) for MSM.DISCUSSIONDespite limitations, including the inability to address overlapping populations, these estimates confirm substantial chronic HBV prevalence in the EU/EEA, with considerable variation between countries and population groups. This relatively straightforward method offers an alternative means of generating HBV prevalence estimates.

PMID:42141879 | DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.14.2500322

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Interim 2025/26 LP.8.1 vaccine effectiveness estimates against COVID-19 from the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN): insights into possible impact of influenza and other respiratory virus co-circulation

Euro Surveill. 2026 May;31(18). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.18.2600331.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUNDThe Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network routinely undertakes multiplex respiratory virus testing, vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimation by test-negative design (TND), and whole genome sequencing (WGS) of vaccine-targeted viruses.AIMTo estimate 2025/26 LP.8.1 VE against community-based COVID-19, including variant-specific, and explore the impact of other respiratory viruses among COVID-19 cases and/or controls.METHODSParticipants were ≥ 12-year-old outpatients presenting with acute respiratory illness between 26 October 2025 and 07 March 2026. COVID-19 vaccination information was registry-based. Primary TND analyses excluded influenza virus-infected controls. Sensitivity analyses explored inclusion and/or exclusion of influenza and other respiratory viral infections among COVID-19 cases and/or controls. WGS supported VE interpretation and variant-specific estimation.RESULTSWe included 3,802 participants (2,832 (74%) aged 12-64 years; 970 (26%) aged ≥ 65 years), with 310 COVID-19 cases (29 vaccinated; 9%) and 3,492 controls (577 vaccinated; 17%). At median 9 weeks post-vaccination, LP.8.1 VE was 48% (95%CI: 21 to 66): 44% (95%CI: -12 to 72) for 12-64 and 53% (95%CI: 21 to 73) for ≥ 65-year-olds. In sensitivity analyses, VE was stable for ≥ 65-year-olds. Among 12-64-year-olds, VE decreased when including influenza virus infections among controls but increased when excluding co-infections, recognising uncertainty with reduced sample size. Against viruses that failed vs succeeded WGS, VE was 26% (95%CI: -63 to 66) vs 53% (95%CI: 24 to 71), 63% (95%CI: 30 to 80) against the XFG variant. Most SARS-CoV-2 co-infections with semi-quantification, including those failing WGS, showed higher viral load for the non-SARS-CoV-2 infection.CONCLUSIONThe 2025/26 LP.8.1 vaccine approximately halved the medically attended COVID-19 risk. Multiplex testing to identify primary co-infections among cases, or correlated vaccine-preventable infections among controls, may address VE under-estimation.

PMID:42141877 | DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.18.2600331