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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Child socioemotional behavior and adult temperament as predictors of physical activity and sedentary behavior in late adulthood

BMC Public Health. 2023 Jun 19;23(1):1179. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16110-y.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Most studies investigating the association of temperament with physical activity and sedentary behavior have examined children or adolescents, employed cross-sectional or longitudinal designs that do not extend from childhood into adulthood, and utilized self- or parent-reported data on physical activity and sedentary behavior. This longitudinal study investigated whether socioemotional behavior in childhood and temperament in middle adulthood predict accelerometer-measured physical activity and sedentary behavior in late adulthood.

METHODS: This study was based on the Jyväskylä Longitudinal Study of Personality and Social Development (JYLS). Socioemotional behavior (behavioral activity, well-controlled behavior, negative emotionality) was assessed at age 8 based on teacher ratings, whereas temperament (surgency, effortful control, negative affectivity, orienting sensitivity) was assessed at age 42 based on self-rating. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and sedentary behavior were assessed at age 61 using an accelerometer. Data (N = 142) were analyzed using linear regression analysis.

RESULTS: In women, behavioral activity at age 8 predicted higher levels of daily sedentary behavior at age 61. The association did not remain statistically significant after controlling for participant’s occupational status. In addition, women’s negative affectivity at age 42 predicted lower daily moderate-to-vigorous physical activity at age 61, particularly during leisure time. No statistically significant results were observed in men.

CONCLUSIONS: Although few weak associations of socioemotional behavior and temperament with physical activity and sedentary behavior were detected in women, they were observed over several decades, and thus, deserve attention in future studies. In addition to other factors contributing to physical activity and sedentary behavior, health professionals may be sensitive to individual characteristics, such as a tendency to experience more negative emotions, when doing health counseling or planning for health-promoting interventions targeting physical activity and sedentary behavior.

PMID:37337189 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-16110-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Global patterns of genomic and phenotypic variation in the invasive harlequin ladybird

BMC Biol. 2023 Jun 19;21(1):141. doi: 10.1186/s12915-023-01638-7.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), native to Asia, has been introduced to other major continents where it has caused serious negative impacts on local biodiversity. Though notable advances to understand its invasion success have been made during the past decade, especially with then newer molecular tools, the conclusions reached remain to be confirmed with more advanced genomic analyses and especially using more samples from larger geographical regions across the native range. Furthermore, although H. axyridis is one of the best studied invasive insect species with respect to life history traits (often comparing invasive and native populations), the traits responsible for its colonization success in non-native areas warrant more research.

RESULTS: Our analyses of genome-wide nuclear population structure indicated that an eastern Chinese population could be the source of all non-native populations and revealed several putatively adaptive candidate genomic loci involved in body color variation, visual perception, and hemolymph synthesis. Our estimates of evolutionary history indicate (1) asymmetric migration with varying population sizes across its native and non-native range, (2) a recent admixture between eastern Chinese and American populations in Europe, (3) signatures of a large progressive, historical bottleneck in the common ancestors of both populations and smaller effective sizes of the non-native population, and (4) the southwest origin and subsequent dispersal routes within its native range in China. In addition, we found that while two mitochondrial haplotypes-Hap1 and Hap2 were dominant in the native range, Hap1 was the only dominant haplotype in the non-native range. Our laboratory observations in both China and USA found statistical yet slight differences between Hap1 and Hap2 in some of life history traits.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study on H. axyridis provides new insights into its invasion processes into other major continents from its native Asian range, reconstructs a geographic range evolution across its native region China, and tentatively suggests that its invasiveness may differ between mitochondrial haplotypes.

PMID:37337183 | DOI:10.1186/s12915-023-01638-7

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

An effectiveness and economic analyses of tricalcium phosphate combined with iliac bone graft versus RhBMP-2 in single-level XLIF surgery in Thailand

BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2023 Jun 19;24(1):503. doi: 10.1186/s12891-023-06590-9.

ABSTRACT

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: To perform effectiveness and economic analyses using data from a retrospective study of patients who underwent XLIF surgery using tricalcium phosphate combined with iliac bone graft (TCP + IBG) or BMP-2 in Thailand.

METHODS: Data were collected from retrospective review of the medical charts and the spine registry of Siriraj Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand. The patients were divided into two groups (TCP + IBG group and BMP-2 group). Demographic, perioperative data, radiographic, clinical results, and quality of life related to health were collected and analyzed at 2-year follow-up. All economic data were collected during the perioperative period and presented as total charge, bone graft, implant/instrumentation, operative service, surgical supply, transfusion, medication, anesthesia, laboratory, and physical therapy.

RESULTS: Twenty-five TCP + IBG and 30 BMP-2 patients with spondylolisthesis and spinal stenosis as primary diagnosis were included. There were no significant differences in all demographic parameters (gender, age, underlying disease, diagnosis, and level of spine) between these two groups. During the perioperative period, the TCP + IBG group had more mean blood loss and more postoperative complications compared to the BMP-2 group. At 2 years of follow-up, there were no significant differences between the radiographic and clinical outcomes of the TCP + IBG and BMP-2 groups. The fusion rate for TCP + IBG and BMP-2 at 2 years of follow-up was 80% and 96.7%, respectively, and no statistically significant differences were observed. All clinical outcomes (Utility, Oswestry Disability Index, and EuroQol Visual Analog Scale) at 2-year follow-up improved significantly compared to preoperative outcomes, but there were no significant differences between the TCP + IBG and BMP-2 groups, either at preoperatively or at 2-year follow-up. The total charge of TCP + IBG was statistically significantly lower than that of BMP-2. Furthermore, the charges of TCP + IBG and BMP-2 during the perioperative period in Thailand were up to three times less than those in the United States.

CONCLUSIONS: Using TCP + IBG as a standalone bone substitution for XLIF surgery with additional posterior instrumentation resulted in significantly lower direct medical charge compared to those using BMP-2 in the perioperative period. However, we could not detect a difference in the long-term radiographic and clinical outcomes of patients with TCP + IBG and BMP-2. These suggest that TCP + IBG may be a valuable alterative bone graft, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

PMID:37337174 | DOI:10.1186/s12891-023-06590-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Use and misuse of random forest variable importance metrics in medicine: demonstrations through incident stroke prediction

BMC Med Res Methodol. 2023 Jun 19;23(1):144. doi: 10.1186/s12874-023-01965-x.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Machine learning tools such as random forests provide important opportunities for modeling large, complex modern data generated in medicine. Unfortunately, when it comes to understanding why machine learning models are predictive, applied research continues to rely on ‘out of bag’ (OOB) variable importance metrics (VIMPs) that are known to have considerable shortcomings within the statistics community. After explaining the limitations of OOB VIMPs – including bias towards correlated features and limited interpretability – we describe a modern approach called ‘knockoff VIMPs’ and explain its advantages.

METHODS: We first evaluate current VIMP practices through an in-depth literature review of 50 recent random forest manuscripts. Next, we recommend organized and interpretable strategies for analysis with knockoff VIMPs, including computing them for groups of features and considering multiple model performance metrics. To demonstrate methods, we develop a random forest to predict 5-year incident stroke in the Sleep Heart Health Study and compare results based on OOB and knockoff VIMPs.

RESULTS: Nearly all papers in the literature review contained substantial limitations in their use of VIMPs. In our demonstration, using OOB VIMPs for individual variables suggested two highly correlated lung function variables (forced expiratory volume, forced vital capacity) as the best predictors of incident stroke, followed by age and height. Using an organized analytic approach that considered knockoff VIMPs of both groups of features and individual features, the largest contributions to model sensitivity were medications (especially cardiovascular) and measured medical risk factors, while the largest contributions to model specificity were age, diastolic blood pressure, self-reported medical risk factors, polysomnography features, and pack-years of smoking. Thus, we reach very different conclusions about stroke risk factors using OOB VIMPs versus knockoff VIMPs.

CONCLUSIONS: The near-ubiquitous reliance on OOB VIMPs may provide misleading results for researchers who use such methods to guide their research. Given the rapid pace of scientific inquiry using machine learning, it is essential to bring modern knockoff VIMPs that are interpretable and unbiased into widespread applied practice to steer researchers using random forest machine learning toward more meaningful results.

PMID:37337173 | DOI:10.1186/s12874-023-01965-x

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

County incidence and geospatial trends of early-onset hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in Kentucky, 2008-2017

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 2023 Jun 19;23(1):453. doi: 10.1186/s12884-023-05699-y.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Early-onset hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (eHDP) are associated with more severe maternal and infant outcomes than later-onset disease. However, little has been done to evaluate population-level trends. Therefore, in this paper, we seek to address this understudied area by describing the geospatial and temporal patterns of county-level incidence of eHDP and assessing county-level demographics that may be associated with an increased incidence of eHDP.

METHODS: Employing Kentucky certificates of live and stillbirth from 2008-2017, this ecological study detected county-level clusters of early-onset hypertensive disorders of pregnancy using SaTScan, calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) with a join point analysis, and identified county-level covariates (% of births to women ≥ 35 years of age, % with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2, % currently smoking, % married, and % experienced eHDP) with a fixed-effects negative binomial regression model for longitudinal data with an autoregressive (AR) correlation structure offset with the natural log of the number of births in each county and year.

RESULTS: County-level incidence of eHDP had a non-statistically significant increase of almost 3% (AAPC: 2.84, 95% CI: -4.26, 10.46), while maternal smoking decreased by almost 6% over the study period (AAPC:-5.8%, 95%CI: -7.5, -4.1), Risk factors for eHDP such as pre-pregnancy BMI ≥ 30 and proportion of births to women ≥ 35 years of age increased by 2.3% and 3.4% respectively (BMI AAPC:2.3, 95% CI: 0.94, 3.7; ≥ 35 years AAPC:3.4, 95% CI: 0.66, 6.3). After adjusting for race, county-level proportions of college attainment, and maternal smoking throughout pregnancy, counties with the highest proportion of births to women with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 reported an eHDP incidence 20% higher than counties with a lower proportion of births to mothers with a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 and a 20% increase in eHDP incidence (aRR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.44). We also observed that counties with the highest proportion vs. the lowest of mothers ≥ 35 years old (> 6.1%) had a 26% higher incidence of eHDP (RR = 1.26, 95%CI: 1.04, 1.50) compared to counties with the lowest incidence (< 2.5%). We further identified two county-level clusters of elevated eHDP rates. We also observed that counties with the highest vs. lowest proportion of mothers ≥ 34 years old (> 6.1% vs. < 2.5%) had a 26% increase in the incidence of eHDP (RR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.50). We further identified two county-level clusters of elevated incidence of eHDP.

CONCLUSIONS: This study identified two county-level clusters of eHDP, county-level covariates associated with eHDP, and that while increasing, the average rate of increase for eHDP was not statistically significant. This study also identified the reduction in maternal smoking over the study period and the concerning increase in rates of elevated pre-pregnancy BMI among mothers. Further work to explore the population-level trends in this understudied pregnancy complication is needed to identify community factors that may contribute to disease and inform prevention strategies.

PMID:37337164 | DOI:10.1186/s12884-023-05699-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The Werther effect following the suicides of three korean celebrities (2017-2018): an ecological time-series study

BMC Public Health. 2023 Jun 19;23(1):1173. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16080-1.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The suicide rate in Korea was the highest among the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) for 2013-2016 and 2018-2020. In korea, suicide was the leading cause of death among individuals aged 10-39, and the second leading cause of death for aged 40-59. Thus, this study aimed to examine the Werther effect of the suicides of three Korean idol singers (Jonghyun: December 18, 2017, Sulli: October 14, 2019, and Hara Gu: November 24, 2019).

METHODS: The study conducted Poisson regression and used the cause-of-death statistics microdata from 2016 to 2020 provided by Statistics Korea. The case periods ranged from the day of the suicide of each celebrity to 10 weeks after. The control periods were all weeks from 2016 to 2020, excluding the case periods.

RESULTS: The suicide rates in Korea significantly increased by 1.21, 1.30, and 1.28 times after the deaths of Jonghyun, Sulli, and Hara Gu, respectively. The Werther effect was more evident in women than men. Suicide rate among individuals aged 10-29 years was greater than those for other age groups.

CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed that the rate of copycat suicides increased after three celebrity singers in Korea died by suicide. Nevertheless, the rate of suicide after the suicide of the three celebrity singers was lower than those in previous studies in Korea.

PMID:37337158 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-16080-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The trinomial health, safety and happiness promote rural tourism

BMC Public Health. 2023 Jun 19;23(1):1177. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-15849-8.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Health and safety protocols have become a requirement to promote rural tourism (PRT). From this perspective, this paper empirically analyses how the health and safety dimensions influence the happiness of hotel managers and rural tourists in the post-Covid 19 era.

METHODS: A theory-based structural equation model will be carried out of activation of norms, that measure variables: sanitary, socioeconomic, and safety. Precisely, we will measure how those three attributes affect the managers-guests’ health in rural areas and their search for happiness at the rural destination. Based on the above, a field of study has been 215 rural tourist accommodations in the Extremadura region (Spain) and a sample population of 443 guests. Data were organised through the SEM-PLS path modelling.

RESULTS: The results achieved statistically show the need to undertake a new model of healthier and safer tourism consumption that values the tourist resources of rural areas, especially nearby and sustainable destinations, based on the guiding principles of safety, health, and happiness.

CONCLUSIONS: The first conclusion is that promoting tourist destinations under safe and healthy conditions has become a priority objective in the tourism industry. The second conclusion that follows from the first is that the variables safety and health and the pursuit of happiness are essential factors in promoting tourist destinations for rural hotel managers and rural tourists. The third conclusion related to the first two is that the opportunity that this study provides to develop strategies of an innovative, sustainable, and creative nature based on the relationships of the new trinomial of health, safety and happiness, from the perspective of happiness management.

PMID:37337150 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-15849-8

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Relationship between alexithymia, loneliness, resilience and non-suicidal self-injury in adolescents with depression: a multi-center study

BMC Psychiatry. 2023 Jun 19;23(1):445. doi: 10.1186/s12888-023-04938-y.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) behaviors are prevalent in adolescents and have adverse effects on physical and mental health. However, little is known about the relationship between NSSI and alexithymia, or the underlying mechanisms that could explain this relationship. This study aimed to elucidate the current status of NSSI in adolescent depression, and analyze the relationship between alexithymia, loneliness, resilience, and adolescent depression with NSSI, so as to provide a theoretical basis for psychotherapeutic interventions.

METHOD: The study sample involved inpatients and outpatients from 12 hospitals across China and adolescents with depression who met the DSM-5 diagnostic criteria for depression episode. The following scales were used: The Functional Assessment of Self-Mutilation, Toronto Alexithymia Scale, UCLA Loneliness Scale, and Connor Davidson Resilience Scale.

RESULTS: The detection rate of NSSI in adolescents with depression from 2021.01.01-2022.01.01 was 76.06% (1782/2343). Spearman’s correlation analysis revealed a significant correlation between alexithymia, loneliness, resilience and NSSI in depressed adolescents, and the results of the non-parametric test showed that the differences between the two groups for each factor were statistically significant. Binary logistic regression results showed that alexithymia (B = 0.023, p = 0.003, OR = 1.023, 95% CI: 1.008-1.038) and depression (B = 0.045, p < 0.001, OR = 1.046, 95% CI: 1.026-1.066) are risk factors for NSSI, resilience (B = – 0.052, p < 0.001, OR = 0.949, 95% CI: 0.935 – 0.964) is a protective factor for NSSI. Alexithymia directly predicted NSSI and also indirectly influenced NSSI through the mediated effect of resilience. Loneliness moderates the first half of the path of this mediated model.

CONCLUSION: The present study confirms a moderated mediation effect: Alexithymia can have an impact on NSSI behaviors in depressed adolescents through the mediating role of resilience. Loneliness, as a moderating variable, moderated the first half of the pathway of the mediating model. We discuss perspectives for future research and interventions based on the findings of the study.

PMID:37337144 | DOI:10.1186/s12888-023-04938-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Occupational variation in the incidence of lip cancer in the Nordic countries

Acta Oncol. 2023 Jun 19:1-9. doi: 10.1080/0284186X.2023.2224053. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: While certain occupations, such as agriculture and fishery, have been associated with an increased risk of lip cancer, the occupational risk profile of lip cancer and its change over time remain poorly known. This study aims to evaluate the incidence of lip cancer across different occupations in the Nordic countries.

METHODS: The Nordic Occupational Cancer Study (NOCCA) covers 14.9 million people and includes 45 years of cancer incidence data, from 1961 to 2005, linked to occupational categories for all the five Nordic populations. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to quantify the risk of lip cancer across occupational categories relative to the entire national populations.

RESULTS: There were a total of 14,477 male and 3008 female lip cancer patients identified during follow up. The highest SIRs were observed among male fishermen (SIR 2.26, 95% CI: 2.04-2.50), gardeners (SIR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.48-1.72), and farmers (SIR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.55-1.66). A significantly reduced risk of lip cancer (SIR < 0.50) was observed among male physicians, teachers, religious workers, artistic workers, journalists, administrators, printers, waiters, and hairdressers. Among women, no occupations were associated with an increased risk of lip cancer.

CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of lip cancer varies widely between outdoor and indoor occupations. Occupations involving outdoor activity and exposure to sunlight show the most elevated SIRs.

PMID:37337140 | DOI:10.1080/0284186X.2023.2224053

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Association between medication literacy and medication adherence and the mediating effect of self-efficacy in older people with multimorbidity

BMC Geriatr. 2023 Jun 19;23(1):378. doi: 10.1186/s12877-023-04072-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity has a significant impact on public health and primary care. Medication adherence is recognized as the most effective measure for managing and preventing multimorbidity. Studies have shown that medication literacy has a positive effect on medication adherence in patients with multimorbidity. However, limited knowledge exists regarding the underlying mechanisms of this relationship in older adults with multimorbidity. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the mediating role of self-efficacy in the association between medication literacy and medication adherence in this population.

METHODS: This study employed a cross-sectional design and convenience sampling method to survey older patients with multimorbidity in six communities in Zhengzhou, China, from July 12, 2021, to December 15, 2021. Participants were assessed using a demographic questionnaire, the Chinese Version of the Medication Literacy Scale (C-MLS), the Self-Efficacy for Appropriate Medication Use Scale (SEAMS), and the Chinese Version of the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8 (C-MMAS-8). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-tests, one-way analysis of variance, Pearson correlation analysis, and mediation analysis.

RESULTS: A total of 350 elderly patients met the inclusion criteria, and 328 valid questionnaires were collected. The mean age of the participants was 74.90 ± 7.37 years, with a slightly higher proportion of males (55.8%) than females (44.2%). The mean score for medication adherence was 4.85 ± 1.57, indicating poor medication adherence among the participants. Medication adherence scores varied significantly among participants of different ages, education levels, employment statuses and kinds of medication (p < 0.01). Scores for medication literacy and self-efficacy showed a significant positive correlation with medication adherence scores (all p < 0.001). The standardized coefficient for the total effect and direct effect of medication literacy on medication adherence was 0.268 (95% CI: 0.201, 0.335) and 0.187 (95% CI: 0.123, 0.252), respectively. After introducing self-efficacy into the model, the standardized coefficient for the indirect effect was 0.081 (95% CI: 0.049, 0.120), indicating that self-efficacy partially mediated the relationship between medication literacy and medication adherence, accounting for 30.22% of the total effect.

CONCLUSION: This study might suggest that medication literacy indirectly affected medication adherence in older people with multimorbidity through self-efficacy. Health care providers should be aware of the importance of improving medication literacy and implement strategies aimed at increasing self-efficacy to achieve the goal of improving medication adherence in older adults with multimorbidity.

PMID:37337135 | DOI:10.1186/s12877-023-04072-0