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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Survey to Assess the Feasibility of Implementing a Human Sentinel Disease Surveillance Network Using Privately Owned Wearable Devices

Health Secur. 2025 Nov-Dec;23(6):411-420. doi: 10.1177/23265094251398871.

ABSTRACT

Current public health surveillance practices exhibit delays in outbreak onset detection due to time lags associated with symptom manifestation, diagnosis, and case reporting and aggregation. To accelerate disease outbreak detection, a 2-tier Human Sentinel Network (HSN) concept was proposed, consisting of wearable physiological sensors capable of detecting presymptomatic illnesses (Tier 1) that prompt individuals to enter a diagnostic testing stage (Tier 2). In the envisioned HSN concept, both wearable alerts and test results are reported automatically and immediately to a secure online platform via a dedicated application. Given the capabilities of smart wearable devices and over-the-counter test kits in the consumer market, along with advances in data analytics and computing power, the HSN represents an information stream that could complement existing surveillance tools. To assess the adoptability of the HSN, a national survey was conducted among urban and suburban centers (6,616 total adult respondents) to quantify several factors tied to recruiting and motivating HSN participation. This paper provides statistical HSN characteristics regarding demographics (age, race, education, income); smart device ownership (57% of respondents); current smart device usage patterns (47.5% of respondents with smart devices report wearing their devices at least 12 hours every day); expected participation and willingness to share data (41.2% or higher depending upon the organization managing the HSN program); compliance (88.5% of HSN participants likely to undergo testing); and methods by which survey respondents might be incentivized to participate. This survey supports a joint probability of HSN design factors that exceeds the minimum modeled coverage requirements of 0.05 (5% population coverage) to achieve a multiday detection advantage relative to traditional public health surveillance.

PMID:41370645 | DOI:10.1177/23265094251398871

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Descriptive Analysis of Measles Transmission Among Travelers During Domestic and Inbound US International Air Travel, 2018-2019

Health Secur. 2025 Nov-Dec;23(6):464-471. doi: 10.1177/23265094251398057.

ABSTRACT

Measles is highly transmissible and can lead to severe complications and mortality risk. Cases of measles are reportable to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This study describes characteristics of travelers who flew while infectious with measles and their contacts. We analyzed data from domestic and US inbound international flights reported between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2019. To identify contacts potentially exposed to measles during air travel we used the CDC-defined measles contact zone and crossmatched with the CDC measles database. We conducted a descriptive analysis of travelers with measles and their aircraft contacts and determined average time from flight exposure to contact interview. During the analysis period, CDC received reports of 83 air travelers infectious with measles resulting in 5,186 potential aircraft exposures. Health departments provided data to CDC for 39% (n=2,037) of the exposures/contacts. On average, 9.8 days elapsed between flight exposure and initial interview attempt. Of the 2,037 contacts interviewed, 82% (n=1,680) reported a history of vaccination or prior disease. Seven secondary cases were identified. Five were exposed on US inbound international flights, 5 had no history of vaccination, and 4 were seated outside the contact zone. Most contacts who developed measles were unvaccinated and shared a US inbound international flight with an infected traveler. Over half of secondary cases were outside the contact zone. The average first contact interview attempt occurred beyond the 3-day window for effective prophylaxis. Continued emphasis on measles vaccination, evaluation of the contact zone definition, and timely contact investigation of exposed travelers may prevent secondary cases and outbreaks in the United States.

PMID:41370644 | DOI:10.1177/23265094251398057

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Reasons for Gambling Amongst Men in Matasia Location, Ngong Sub-County Kajiado County, Kenya

J Gambl Stud. 2025 Dec 10. doi: 10.1007/s10899-025-10464-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Gambling has become a significant social issue in Kenya, particularly among men in peri-urban areas, driven by economic hardships and the proliferation of digital betting platforms. This study aims to explore the reasons for gambling among men in Matasia Location, Ngong Sub-County, Kajiado County, a semi-arid region with notable socio-economic challenges. A descriptive mixed-methods approach was used, surveying 150 men aged 18-65 identified at gambling hotspots (betting shops, bars, and eateries), with 145 completing questionnaires (96.7% response rate). Data were collected in July 2025 and analysed using SPSS 25 for descriptive statistics and chi-square tests, complemented by thematic analysis of interviews. Key motivations, frequency, types, and spending habits of gambling were assessed to identify driving factors. The primary reason for gambling was the desire for wealth, as participants indicated 48.3% were motivated by this factor, followed by financial pressures, with survey data revealing 25.5% cited this reason. Daily gambling was reported, with individuals reporting 54.5% engaged in it regularly, and 57.2% spent KES 1,000-5,000 monthly. Sports betting and casino games were the most common types, with interviewees noted 58.6% preferred sports betting and 51.7% chose casino games. The Key Informant Interview (Member of County Assembly) for Matasia Location, highlighted idleness and unemployment as key drivers. Economic desperation and digital accessibility fuel gambling in Matasia, and interventions such as vocational training, financial literacy programs, and policy restrictions on online platforms are recommended, aligning with Kenya’s National Substance Abuse Prevention Strategy (2021) and Sustainable Development Goal 3.

PMID:41370025 | DOI:10.1007/s10899-025-10464-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Characteristics and Correlates of Mirror Movements in Parkinson’s Disease

Ann Indian Acad Neurol. 2025 Dec 10. doi: 10.4103/aian.aian_508_25. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the frequency, characteristics, and clinical associations of mirror movements in individuals with Parkinson’s disease, considering factors such as age, side of symptom onset, disease severity, and motor asymmetry.

METHODS: This cross-sectional observational study included 87 individuals with Parkinson’s disease, diagnosed according to Movement Disorder Society criteria. Exclusion criteria included atypical Parkinsonism, dementia, and refusal to consent. Mirror movements were assessed using video-recorded standardized tasks and scored with the Woods Teuber scale. Clinical parameters, including the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS-III), Hoehn and Yahr scale (H and Y staging), and lateralized motor severity, were analyzed. Statistical correlations were performed using SPSS version 26.

RESULTS: Mirror movements were observed in 65.5% of participants, predominantly affecting the upper limbs (98% in fingers). The frequency of mirror movements increased with age (84.6% in those aged 70-90 years, P = 0.04) and was significantly higher in individuals with left-sided symptom onset (74.1% vs. 51.5%, P = 0.03). The severity of mirroring correlated with the side of disease onset and greater lateral differences in UPDRS motor scores (>30, P = 0.015). A rare subtype of discordant mirror movements (non-homologous movements) was identified in 8.2% of individuals.

CONCLUSIONS: Mirror movements are a frequent and underrecognized feature in individuals with Parkinson’s disease. Their clinical associations indicate a greater frequency in older individuals, those with left-sided onset, and those with more asymmetric motor involvement. These findings highlight the potential utility of mirror movements as a clinical biomarker for disease lateralization and progression. Further research, including functional imaging studies, is warranted to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

PMID:41370014 | DOI:10.4103/aian.aian_508_25

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Black and Latino/a Participants With Inflammatory Bowel Disease Are More Likely to Be at Risk for Post-Traumatic Stress Than Their White Counterparts: A Matched Control Comparison Study

Inflamm Bowel Dis. 2025 Dec 10:izaf290. doi: 10.1093/ibd/izaf290. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is diagnosed when a person experiences chronic psychological distress following a traumatic event that involves a real or perceived threat to life or bodily harm. Up to one-third of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients report some PTSD symptoms due to their disease (IBD-PTS); however, most data are collected in Caucasian populations. IBD-PTS is associated with poorer outcomes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate IBD-PTS in Black and Latino/a patients.

METHODS: Adult IBD patients of Black and/or Latino/a race were recruited at 2 IBD clinics. Those meeting eligibility requirements completed these assessment tools online: PTSD Checklist for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) (PCL-5), Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE) Questionnaire, Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ), and Demographic and Clinical Information. White, non-Hispanic IBD patients from a previously published dataset from IBD Partners were used for age- and sex-matched controls (2:1).

RESULTS: In total, the study included 180 matched controls and 90 participants, including 57.8% of Black and Latino/a patients who had experienced extreme fear or threats to life/bodily harm related to IBD; 33.3% who scored ≥31 on the PCL-5 (minimum criteria for IBD-PTS) vs 12.8% of matched controls. Black and Latino/a patients also reported more severe IBD-PTS symptoms. Those with higher PCL-5 scores had more adverse childhood experiences and were more likely to have been hospitalized, had surgery, or used the emergency room for IBD. More severe IBD-PTS was associated with poorer HRQoL.

CONCLUSIONS: Black and Latino/a IBD patients may have rates of IBD-PTS 2.5 times higher than White peers, with more severe PTSD symptoms. Prior nonmedical adverse life events may be risk factors for the development of IBD-PTS. Additional research is warranted.

PMID:41370008 | DOI:10.1093/ibd/izaf290

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effect of Vibration, Electrical Stimulation and Other Non-Pharmacological Interventions on Restless Leg Syndrome Severity and Sleep Quality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Ann Indian Acad Neurol. 2025 Dec 10. doi: 10.4103/aian.aian_176_25. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine the effect of nonpharmacological treatments, such as vibration, electric stimulation, acupressure, massage therapy, cryotherapy, and exercise, on the restless legs syndrome (RLS) severity score.

METHODS: Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed for selecting studies to be included in the meta-analysis. The International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registered this study. Many databases, including Google Scholar, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus, were utilized to locate randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The analysis employed Cochrane’s risk of bias tool 2.0 to evaluate the quality of the incorporated RCTs. Standardized mean difference (SMD) figures were employed for all outcomes to assess the impact of every nonpharmacological intervention. The aggregate effect of each was expressed using forest plots. A random-effects model was used for pooling. The heterogeneity of the included studies was evaluated using I2 values. All relevant statistical calculations were carried out using R Studi version 4.3.0.

RESULTS: A total of 17 studies were selected for meta-analysis. There was a significant reduction in RLS severity after vibration/stimulation (SMD -1.09, 95% CI -2.45 to -0.27, P = 0.014), and a non-significant trend for acupressure (SMD -0.87, 95% CI -2.21 to 0.47, P = 0.203), massage therapy (SMD -3.49, 95% CI -10.81 to 3.83, P = 0.350), cryotherapy (SMD -1.27, 95% CI -3.72 to 1.18, P = 0.309), and exercise (SMD -2.05, 95% CI -23.95 to 19.84, P = 0.856). There was an improvement in sleep quality measured using the pooled Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index after the nonpharmacological intervention (SMD: -0.51, 95% CI: -0.73 to -0.28). However, this improvement was not found to be significant (P = 0.73).

CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated significant reductions in RLS severity with nonpharmacological interventions, offering viable alternatives to medication. However, the improvement in sleep quality was not statistically significant. Further research is needed to optimize these treatments.

PMID:41370003 | DOI:10.4103/aian.aian_176_25

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Optimizing Dosing Strategies in Cell Therapy With Machine Learning and Exposure-Response Integration

Pharm Stat. 2026 Jan-Feb;25(1):e70048. doi: 10.1002/pst.70048.

ABSTRACT

In cell therapy product development, cell expansion is highly correlated with response and safety. Significant heterogeneity in patient and product characteristics contributes to variability in cell expansion, persistence and response. Integrating exposure assessments enables us to use comprehensive information to make informed dose selection decisions, aligning with the expectations outlined in FDA’s Project OPTIMUS. We propose a seamless phase I/II design that integrates data from toxicity, efficacy, cellular kinetics (CK), and baseline patient/product characteristics for optimal dose selection. Utilizing random forest (RF) with all available data, we guide dose escalation and subsequently narrow down the dose options. Additional patients are then randomly assigned to promising doses for further investigation. Throughout this process, interim analyses based on RF estimations are conducted to discontinue doses that are deemed futile or toxic. The optimal dose (OD) is ultimately chosen based on its safety profile and highest efficacy rate. The proposed RF-based seamless phase I/II design, incorporating exposure data, is entirely data-driven for dose determination. Simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics, including high accuracy in selecting the optimal dose and effectively allocating patients to potentially therapeutic doses while minimizing exposure to toxic doses. On average, the RF-based algorithm selects 0-3 doses for further exploration.

PMID:41369984 | DOI:10.1002/pst.70048

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Machine Learning-Based Prediction for Axial Pain Following Expansive Unilateral Open-Door Laminoplasty: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Pain Ther. 2025 Dec 10. doi: 10.1007/s40122-025-00802-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Axial pain is a common complication following expansive unilateral open-door laminoplasty (ELAP); however, traditional statistical methods are unable to effectively predict this complication. This study developed machine learning (ML) models to predict post-ELAP axial pain and identify key predictors.

METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled 851 cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) patients undergoing ELAP, split into training (n = 714) and temporal validation sets (n = 137). Demographic, imaging, clinical, and surgical data were collected. Predictive features were selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression, followed by ML model development with grid search optimizing hyperparameters. The top-performing model underwent temporal validation, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analyzed predictor contributions.

RESULTS: The training set included 218 axial pain cases; the test set had 47. Key predictors (C7 laminoplasty, cervical kyphosis, etc.) were identified to develop ML model. Post-optimization, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) achieved superior performance (internal validation area under the receiver [AUC] = 0.948; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.918-0.978), maintained in temporal validation (AUC = 0.906; 95% CI 0.858-0.954). Through SHAP analysis, the predictors were ranked in descending order of importance as follows: C7 laminoplasty, quantity-based surgical segment classification, cervical kyphosis, angle of lamina open-door, cervical lordosis, and occupying rate of cervical spinal canal.

CONCLUSIONS: ML models coupled with SHAP analysis effectively predict post-ELAP axial pain, identifying the key predictors. Performing segment-selective ELAP, avoiding unnecessary C7 laminoplasty, and maintaining optimal open-door angle are critical factors in avoiding the occurrence of axial pain following ELAP.

PMID:41369971 | DOI:10.1007/s40122-025-00802-x

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Renal dynamic scintigraphy using 3D-ring CZT cameras: comparison with NaI(Tl)

EJNMMI Res. 2025 Dec 10. doi: 10.1186/s13550-025-01351-2. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Isotopic renography is pivotal for assessing upper urinary tract obstruction and provides renal functional parameters. New 3D-CZT cameras offer enhanced sensitivity and innovative full SPECT protocols that need to be validated on phantoms. Current renal phantoms are often complex and suitable for 2D imaging. Using a new printed 3D renal phantom, we compared planar and full SPECT dynamic imaging.

METHODS: A 3D-printed renal phantom mimicking pediatric/adult kidneys was designed. Each kidney subunit, connected to a bladder-bag, was programmably infused with 7.5 MBq of [99mTc]-Pertechnetate to simulate normal nephrograms. An asymmetry of renal activity was simulated using different activity ratios. Each acquisition was conducted on both conventional NaI(Tl) and 3D-CZT cameras.

RESULTS: The 3D printed phantom enabled the acquisition of consistent and reproducible nephrograms. Tmax, T1/2, and A20 – min/max ratios showed no statistically significant differences between planar and SPECT. Simulated asymmetric renal function demonstrated a strong linear correlation between activity and AUC with r = 0.9455 and 0.9471 (p < 0.0001), respectively for conventional and 3D cameras.

CONCLUSION: This innovative 3D phantom allowed the acquisition of reproducible nephrograms with parameters comparable to those of clinical examinations. At low activity, 3D-CZT camera acquisitions provided equivalent values to conventional cameras, supporting their use for qualitative imaging and follow-up.

PMID:41369969 | DOI:10.1186/s13550-025-01351-2

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Incidence and Predictors of Severe Adverse Drug Reaction Among Adult HIV Patients Initiated with Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Northwest Ethiopia: A Retrospective Follow-up Study

AIDS Behav. 2025 Dec 10. doi: 10.1007/s10461-025-04975-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Severe adverse drug reactions (ADRs) associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) present a major public health challenge, particularly in resource-limited settings like Ethiopia where pharmacovigilance systems are often constrained. Despite the widespread rollout of ART, contemporary evidence on the incidence and predictors of these severe events in the Ethiopian context remains limited. This study aimed to determine the time to development of severe ADRs and identify their significant predictors among adults receiving ART in Northwest Ethiopia. A retrospective follow-up study was conducted, enrolling 634 HIV-positive adults who initiated ART between April 1, 2018, and March 31, 2023. Participants were selected using a stratified random sampling technique. Data were extracted meticulously from patient medical records and analyzed using STATA version 17. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests, while bi-variable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were carried out to identify independent predictors. Over a total follow-up period of 16,315 person-months, 29 patients developed severe ADRs, with the majority of incidents occurring within the first 9 to 21 months of treatment initiation. The overall incidence density was calculated at 18 per 10,000 person-months (95% CI: 12, 26). Multivariable analysis identified advanced baseline WHO clinical stage (III & IV) (Adjusted Hazard Ratio [AHR] = 9.86, 95% CI: 5.21, 13.24) and a low baseline CD4 count below 350 cells/μL (AHR = 3.21, 95% CI: 1.01, 5.43) as statistically significant predictors for a shorter time to severe ADR. The findings indicate that the risk is highest in the initial months of therapy and is strongly correlated with advanced disease stage and immunosuppression at baseline. This underscores the critical need for intensified clinical monitoring and counseling for high-risk patients, especially during the first year of ART, and highlights the urgency of strengthening national pharmacovigilance systems to improve patient safety outcomes.

PMID:41369962 | DOI:10.1007/s10461-025-04975-6