Category: Nevin Manimala

Math Biosci Eng. 2023 Jan 4;20(3):4816-4837. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023223.

ABSTRACT

This paper is devoted to investigating the impact of vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks. In this work, we propose a compartmental epidemic ordinary differential equation model, which extends the previous so-called SEIRD model ^[1,2,3,4] by incorporating the birth and death of the population, disease-induced mortality and waning immunity, and adding a vaccinated compartment to account for vaccination. Firstly, we perform a mathematical analysis for this model in a special case where the disease transmission is homogeneous and vaccination program is periodic in time. In particular, we define the basic reproduction number $ mathcal{R}_0 $ for this system and establish a threshold type of result on the global dynamics in terms of $ mathcal{R}_0 $. Secondly, we fit our model into multiple COVID-19 waves in four locations including Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea and then forecast the trend of COVID-19 by the end of 2022. Finally, we study the effects of vaccination again the ongoing pandemic by numerically computing the basic reproduction number $ mathcal{R}_0 $ under different vaccination programs. Our findings indicate that the fourth dose among the high-risk group is likely needed by the end of the year.

PMID:36896524 | DOI:10.3934/mbe.2023223

Math Biosci Eng. 2023 Jan;20(3):4714-4740. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023218. Epub 2022 Dec 29.

ABSTRACT

The variation of nutrient supply not only leads to the differences in the phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity but also induces the long-term phenotypic evolution of phytoplankton. It is widely accepted that marine phytoplankton follows Bergmann’s Rule and becomes smaller with climate warming. Compared with the direct effect of increasing temperature, the indirect effect via nutrient supply is considered to be an important and dominant factor in the reduction of phytoplankton cell size. In this paper, a size-dependent nutrient-phytoplankton model is developed to explore the effects of nutrient supply on the evolutionary dynamics of functional traits associated with phytoplankton size. The ecological reproductive index is introduced to investigate the impacts of input nitrogen concentration and vertical mixing rate on the persistence of phytoplankton and the distribution of cell size. In addition, by applying the adaptive dynamics theory, we study the relationship between nutrient input and the evolutionary dynamics of phytoplankton. The results show that input nitrogen concentration and vertical mixing rate have significant effects on the cell size evolution of phytoplankton. Specifically, cell size tends to increase with the input nutrient concentration, as does the diversity of cell sizes. In addition, a single-peaked relationship between vertical mixing rate and cell size is observed. When the vertical mixing rate is too low or too high, only small individuals are dominant in the water column. When the vertical mixing rate is moderate, large individuals can coexist with small individuals, so the diversity of phytoplankton is elevated. We predict that reduced intensity of nutrient input due to climate warming will lead to a trend towards smaller cell size and will reduce the diversity of phytoplankton.

PMID:36896519 | DOI:10.3934/mbe.2023218

Math Biosci Eng. 2023 Jan;20(3):4673-4689. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023216. Epub 2022 Dec 28.

ABSTRACT

The effective reproduction number, $ R_t $, is a vital epidemic parameter utilized to judge whether an epidemic is shrinking, growing, or holding steady. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the combined $ R_t $ and time-dependent vaccination rate for COVID-19 in the USA and India after the vaccination campaign started. Accounting for the impact of vaccination into a discrete-time stochastic augmented SVEIR (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model, we estimate the time-dependent effective reproduction number $ (R_t) $ and vaccination rate $ (xi_t) $ for COVID-19 by using a low pass filter and the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach for the period February 15, 2021 to August 22, 2022 in India and December 13, 2020 to August 16, 2022 in the USA. The estimated $ R_t $ and $ xi_t $ show spikes and serrations with the data. Our forecasting scenario represents the situation by December 31, 2022 that the new daily cases and deaths are decreasing for the USA and India. We also noticed that for the current vaccination rate, $ R_t $ would remain greater than one by December 31, 2022. Our results are beneficial for the policymakers to track the status of the effective reproduction number, whether it is greater or less than one. As restrictions in these countries ease, it is still important to maintain safety and preventive measures.

PMID:36896517 | DOI:10.3934/mbe.2023216

Math Biosci Eng. 2023 Jan;20(3):4437-4454. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023206. Epub 2022 Dec 26.

ABSTRACT

This article presents the existence outcomes concerning a family of singular nonlinear differential equations containing Caputo’s fractional derivatives with nonlocal double integral boundary conditions. According to the nature of Caputo’s fractional calculus, the problem is converted into an equivalent integral equation, while two standard fixed theorems are employed to prove its uniqueness and existence results. An example is presented at the end of this paper to illustrate our obtained results.

PMID:36896507 | DOI:10.3934/mbe.2023206

J Adv Nurs. 2023 Mar 9. doi: 10.1111/jan.15621. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIM: With the worldwide outbreak of coronavirus, a significant impact has been observed on the functioning of healthcare systems and the process of childbirth. Women probably did not even have a choice to adjust their plans accordingly to the current situation. The aim of the study was to examine how the outbreak of the SARS CoV-2 pandemic state affected the decisions of pregnant women about their childbirth plan.

DESIGN: This cross-sectional study was performed using a web-based survey published on social media in Poland.

METHODS: The cross-sectional study was performed using web-based questionnaires. The study group included Polish women who changed their childbirth plans, compared to a group of women not sure about delivery plan change and those whose plans had not changed. The data were collected from 4 March 2020 to 2 May 2020, when the first rising count of new infections was observed in Poland and worldwide. Statistical analysis was performed using STATISTICA Software, Inc., 13.3 (2020).

RESULTS: Of 969 women who completed the questionnaire and were enrolled into the study, 57.2% had not changed their childbirth plans (group I), 28.4% had changed their plans (group II), and 14.4% of respondents answered “not sure” to this question (group III). The majority of women changed their birth plans during the pandemic because of the potential absence of their partner during labour (56% of women who had changed their plans and 48% of those whose answer was “I am not sure”, p < .001). Another reason was the fear of separation from the child after delivery (33% of women who had changed their plans and 30% of those whose answer was “I am not sure”, p < .001).

CONCLUSION: Restrictions due to the COVID-19 outbreak have influenced the childbirth plans of pregnant women. The changes were independent of women’s vision of birth before the pandemic.

IMPACT: The restriction on births with accompanying person and the risk of separation from their infant after childbirth significantly influenced the decision-making process. As a result, some women were more likely to opt for a home birth with or even without medical assistance.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: The study participants were women who were pregnant at the time of completing the questionnaire, were over 18 years old and spoke Polish.

PMID:36895080 | DOI:10.1111/jan.15621

BMC Nutr. 2023 Mar 9;9(1):45. doi: 10.1186/s40795-023-00698-w.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: From 6 months of age, children need, in addition to breast milk, a complementary food whose nutritional composition meets their needs. However, low consumption of child-specific foods in favor of adult foods has been documented. Thus, the lack of adaptation of children to family feeding conditions has been the source of frequent malnutrition in some low-income countries. In Burkina Faso, little data is available on family-type food consumption by children. The objective was to describe the socio-cultural influences on feeding habits and food consumption frequencies of infants aged 6-23 months in Ouagadougou.

METHODS: The study was conducted from March to June 2022 using a structured questionnaire. A reminder of the previous 24 h’ meals was used to assess 618 children’s food consumption. Mother-child pairs were selected using the simple random sampling method, and data collection was done by the interview method. Sphinx V5, IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0 and XLSTAT 2016 software were used to process data.

RESULTS: Influences between the consumption of certain foods and the mother’s social status were observed. The most consumed foods are simple porridges (67.48%), Tô/rice (65.70%), cookies and cakes (62.94%), juices and sweetened drinks (62.94%). Cowpeas (17.31%), improved porridge (13.92%) and eggs (6.63%) are the least consumed. The most meals frequency was three meals daily (33.98%), and children with the minimum daily meal frequency were 86.41%. Principal component analysis showed that the mother’s social status influenced the consumption of imported infant flours, fish soups, fruits, juices and sweetened drinks, cookies and cakes, simple porridge, and tô/rice. Concerning the consumption of local infant porridges, 55.72% of the children who consumed them appreciated positively. However, for 57.75% of the parents, the lack of information limits the consumption rate of this type of flour.

CONCLUSION: High consumption of family-type meals was observed and was influenced by parental social status. In addition, the rate of acceptable meal frequencies was generally high.

PMID:36895038 | DOI:10.1186/s40795-023-00698-w

BMC Sports Sci Med Rehabil. 2023 Mar 9;15(1):29. doi: 10.1186/s13102-023-00637-z.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To examine the occurrence of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) changes in the thoracolumbar spine among elite climbing athletes.

METHODS: All climbers of the Swedish national sport climbing team (n = 8), and individuals having trained for selection to the national team (n = 11), were prospectively included. A control group, matched in age and sex, were recruited. All participants underwent a thoracolumbar MRI (1.5 T, T1- and T2-weighted imaging), evaluated according to Pfirrmann classification, modified Endplate defect score, Modic changes, apophyseal injuries and spondylolisthesis. Pfirrmann ≥ 3, Endplate defect score ≥ 2 and Modic ≥ 1 was defined as degenerative findings.

RESULTS: Fifteen individuals, 8 women, participated in both the climbing group (mean age 23.1, SD 3.2 years) and the control group respectively (mean age 24.3, SD 1.5 years). In the climbing group, 6.1% of the thoracic and 10.6% of the lumbar intervertebral discs showed signs of degeneration according to Pfirrmann. One disc with a grade above 3 was present. Modic changes in the thoracic/lumbar spine were prevalent in 1.7%/1.3% of the vertebrae. Degenerative endplate changes according to the Endplate defect score were found in 8.9% and 6.6% of the thoracic and lumbar spinal segments of the climbing group, respectively. Two apophyseal injuries were found, while no participants displayed signs of spondylolisthesis. There was no difference in point-prevalence of radiographic spinal changes between climbers and controls (0.07 < p < 1.0).

CONCLUSION: In this small cross-sectional study, only a low proportion of elite climbers displayed changes of the spinal endplates or intervertebral discs, as opposed to other sports with high spinal loads. Most observed abnormalities were low grade degenerative changes and did not differ statistically compared to controls.

PMID:36895033 | DOI:10.1186/s13102-023-00637-z

J Orthop Surg Res. 2023 Mar 9;18(1):181. doi: 10.1186/s13018-023-03540-y.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess in retrospect the effects of brachial plexus block and general anesthesia on children with lateral humeral condyle fractures in terms of postoperative pain and return of upper limb function.

METHODS: Randomly allocated to either the control group (n = 51) or the study group (n = 55) were children with lateral humeral condyle fractures who were admitted to our hospital between October 2020 and October 2021, depending on the surgical anesthetic technique used. The research group had internal fixation surgery with brachial plexus block in addition to anesthesia on the basis of the control group, whereas both groups of children underwent the procedure with general anesthesia alone. Postoperative pain degree, upper extremity functional recovery, occurrence of adverse reactions, etc. RESULTS: The study group had shorter mean times for surgery, anesthesia, propofol dose, return to consciousness, and extubation than the control group did at every measure of statistical significance. The T2 heart rate (HR) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) were both significantly lower than the pre-anesthesia HR and MAP, and the T1, T2, and T3 HR and MAP were all significantly lower in the study group compared to the control group (P < 0.05). The difference between the SpO2 values at T0 and T3 was not statistically significant (P > 0.05); the VAS scores at 4 h, 12 h, and 48 h after surgery were higher than those at 2 h after surgery, and reached the peak at 4 h after surgery; within 2 h, 4 h, and 12 h of surgery At 48 h, the study group had substantially lower VAS ratings than the control group (P < 0.05). Post-treatment Fugl-Meyer scale scores were considerably higher across the board compared to pre-treatment levels in both groups. When compared to the control group, individuals who participated in the flexion-stretching coordinated exercise and the separation exercise had significantly better ratings. Electrocardiogram, blood pressure, respiratory circulation, and hemodynamic parameters all remained within normal limits during the surgical procedure. The study group had a 9.09% reduced incidence of adverse events compared to the control group. 19.61% (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: When used in conjunction with general anesthesia, brachial plexus block can help children with lateral humeral condyle fractures regulate perioperative signs, maintain their hemodynamic level, lessen postoperative pain and unpleasant reactions, and improve the function of their upper limbs. Functional recovery, with high safety and effectiveness.

PMID:36895031 | DOI:10.1186/s13018-023-03540-y

Infect Dis Poverty. 2023 Mar 9;12(1):15. doi: 10.1186/s40249-023-01066-3.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, few studies have evaluated the effect of NPIs on other infectious diseases and none has assessed the avoided disease burden associated with NPIs. We aimed to assess the effect of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and evaluate the health economic benefits related to the reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases.

METHODS: Data on 10 notifiable infectious diseases across China during 2010-2020 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A two-stage controlled interrupted time-series design with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to examine the impact of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases. The analysis was first performed at the provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) level in China, then the PLAD-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS: A total of 61,393,737 cases of 10 infectious diseases were identified. The implementation of NPIs was associated with 5.13 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.45‒7.42) avoided cases and USD 1.77 billion (95% CI 1.18‒2.57) avoided hospital expenditures in 2020. There were 4.52 million (95% CI 3.00‒6.63) avoided cases for children and adolescents, corresponding to 88.2% of total avoided cases. The top leading cause of avoided burden attributable to NPIs was influenza [avoided percentage (AP): 89.3%; 95% CI 84.5‒92.6]. Socioeconomic status and population density were effect modifiers.

CONCLUSIONS: NPIs for COVID-19 could effectively control the prevalence of infectious diseases, with patterns of risk varying by socioeconomic status. These findings have important implications for informing targeted strategies to prevent infectious diseases.

PMID:36895021 | DOI:10.1186/s40249-023-01066-3

J Clin Nurs. 2023 Mar 9. doi: 10.1111/jocn.16638. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To design a protocol based on the experiences of long-term survivors to facilitate resilience for oesophageal cancer patients in rural China.

BACKGROUND: According to the latest Global Cancer Statistics Report, 604,000 new cases of oesophageal cancer were reported, of which over 60% of the disease burden is distributed in China. The incidence of oesophageal cancer in rural China (15.95/100,000) is twice as high as those in urban areas (7.59/100,000). To be sure, resilience can help patients better adapt to post-cancer life. But universal interventions involving improving the resilience of oesophageal cancer patients have much less been explored, especially for rural patients.

METHODS: The two-arm, parallel design, non-blinded, randomised controlled trial will be implemented in 86 adults diagnosed with oesophageal cancer and will be randomly assigned to the control group or the intervention group via the blocked randomisation. The intervention group will undergo an intervention with one-on-one guidance from a nurse while viewing a CD of the experiences of long-term survivors with oesophageal cancer in rural areas. Every 2 weeks, a theme session will be introduced, and the entire intervention will continue for 12 weeks. Psychosocial variables (resilience, self-efficacy, coping mode and family support) will be surveyed at baseline, post-intervention and 3 months after the intervention. The paper complies with the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Intervention Trials 2013 and Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials guidelines for study protocols adapted for designing and reporting parallel group randomised trials.

CONCLUSION: The intervention programme transitions from hospitalisation to discharge, which includes one-on-one interventions by medical personnel and a portable CD describing the experiences of long-term survivors with rural oesophageal cancer. Once the intervention’s effectiveness is proven, this protocol will provide psychological support for massive oesophageal cancer patients.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: The intervention programme may be used as an auxiliary therapy to promote patients’ postoperative psychological rehabilitation. This programme has the advantages of being cost-effective, flexible, accessible, and convenient and can be implemented without the limitation of time, place and clinical medical staff.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Chinese Clinical Trial Registration number is ChiCTR2100050047. Registered on 16 August 2021.

PMID:36895018 | DOI:10.1111/jocn.16638