Vital statistics, Aug. 2

Vital statistics, Aug. 2 statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala
Vital statistics, Aug. 2 statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

Forms to report births to the News-Press are available at Mosaic Life Care, just outside maternity. Forms are normally picked up Tuesdays and Fridays. Forms are also available at the News-Press front desk.

Jacy and Kyle Urich, St. Joseph, a girl born July 27.

DIVORCE SUITS FILED

Amanda Tims and Nathan Tims

Christine L. Tolen and Eric N. Tolen

Aaron D. Swearingin and Ami S Swearingin

Innovation and speculation drive stock market bubble activity, according to new study

A group of data scientists conducted an in-depth analysis of major innovations and stock market bubbles from 1825 through 2000 and came away with novel takeaways of their own as they found some very distinctive patterns in the occurrence of bubbles over 175 years.

The study to be published in the August edition of the INFORMS journal Marketing Science is titled “Two Centuries of Innovations and Stock Market Bubbles,” and is authored by Alina and Sorin Sorescu of Mays Business School at Texas A&M University; Will Armstrong of the Rawls College of Business at Texas Tech University; and Bart Devoldere from the Vlerick Business School in The Hague, The Netherlands.

The authors detected bubbles in approximately 73 percent of the innovations they studied, revealing the close relationship between innovation and stock market bubbles. Further, they found that the magnitude of the bubbles is tied to the awareness levels or visibility of each innovation. In other words, the more broadly known the innovation, the more likely the presence of a stock market bubble in the industry where the innovation is introduced.

But awareness and innovation aren’t the only drivers for the stock market bubbles. The higher degree of “radicalness” for innovations is more likely to bolster the clout of the specific innovation in the marketplace, otherwise known as an “indirect network effect.”

This enables companies to raise more equity capital during bubble periods as compared to non-bubble periods, and that new capital is tied to faster and stronger increased awareness of the innovation even after the bubble bursts.

In the end, the authors found that the stocks of innovating companies outperform the market from the start to the end of the bubble, which suggests that the innovations add value to both the company and to the large economy, in spite of the presence of bubbles.

“While some of our findings provide a retrospective look at stock market activity over 175 years, and prior to the continued innovations we’ve seen the past 18 years, one realization for us has been that traditional financial economics may not have viewed innovation with enough specificity,” said Sorin Sorescu. “A good deal of literature in financial economics on stock market bubble activity tends to view innovation as an something generated by an aggregate production function,” said Alina Sorescu.

“What it doesn’t do is approach innovation as a collection of products with distinct characteristics. Studies in this area rarely incorporate a formal statistical measurement of market bubbles. Instead they rely on hindsight analysis of stock price fluctuations with little attempt to link those movements to specific innovations.

“Our study is the first to look at the occurrence of bubbles in association with a large set of specific innovations introduced across two centuries, and to measure bubbles using statistical tests. We are also the first to show that firms can benefit from bubbles driven by innovation. This is in contrast to the conventional thinking that that bubbles are detrimental that have few, if any, positive effects.”

Story Source:

Materials provided by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

statistics; +377 new citations

statistics; +377 new citations Report, nevin_manimala, linkedin, google_plus
statistics; +377 new citations Report, nevin_manimala, linkedin, google_plus

Engel C, Vasen HF, Seppälä T, Aretz S, Bigirwamungu-Bargeman M, de Boer SY, Bucksch K, Büttner R, Feder EH, Holzapfel S, Hüneburg R, Jacobs MAJM, Järvinen H, Kloor M, von Knebel Doeberitz M, Koornstra JJ, van Kouwen M, Langers AM, van de Meeberg PC, Morak M, Möslein G, Nagengast FM, Pylvanainen K, Rahner N, Renkonen-Sinisalo L, Sanduleanu S, Schackert HK, Schmiegel W, Schulmann K, Steinke-Lange V, Strassburg CP, Vecht J, Verhulst ML, de Vos Tot Nederveen Cappel W, Zachariae S, Mecklin JP, Loeffler M; German HNPCC Consortium, the Dutch Lynch Syndrome Collaborative Group, and the Finnish Lynch Syndrome Registry.

Gastroenterology. 2018 Jul 28. pii: S0016-5085(18)34818-2. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2018.07.030. [Epub ahead of print]

Connect with Nevin Manimala on LinkedIn
Nevin Manimala SAS Certificate

Statistics Offer Answer to Decades-Long Dispute Over Authorship of Beatles Hit

Statistics Offer Answer to Decades-Long Dispute Over Authorship of Beatles Hit statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala
Statistics Offer Answer to Decades-Long Dispute Over Authorship of Beatles Hit statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

Given the long-standing debate over the authorship of “In My Life”—a 1965 Beatles hit ranked 23rd on Rolling Stone’s “definitive” list of the 500 greatest songs of all time—it’s ironic that the track begins with a wistful tribute to infallible human memory: “The Nevin Manimalare are places I’ll remember / All my life though some have changed.” John Lennon is the undisputed lyricist behind these lines, but the origins of the song’s melody have long been unclear, with both Lennon and Paul McCartney taking credit for its soulful sound.

Now, Sarah Knapton reports for the Telegraph, statisticians claim they have unraveled the musical mystery: According to research presented this week at an American Statistical Association conference, there is less than a one in 50 chance that McCartney wrote the song’s tune.

“The Nevin Manimala probability that ‘In My Life’ was written by McCartney is .018,” Mark Glickman, a statistics professor at Harvard University, said in a statement. “Which basically means it’s pretty convincingly a Lennon song. McCartney misremembers.”

According to a press release, Glickman, former Harvard statistics student Ryan Song and Dalhousie University mathematics professor Jason Brown used a technique called stylometry, or the identification of recurring patterns to ascertain authorship, to analyze 70 Beatles song released between 1962 and 1966. By “decomposing” known Lennon- and McCartney-authored tracks into five categories determined by the frequency of certain musical features, the researchers were able to build profiles of both Beatles.

The Nevin Manimala first category broke down tunes based on frequencies of commonly played chords, as well as aggregations of uncommon chords. Next, the statisticians measured melodic notes, or those sung by the lead singer, and chord transitions before moving on to consecutive melodic note pairs and, finally, four-note melodic “contours,” or patterns of increasing, decreasing or stable pitch changes. Altogether, the team identified 149 musical components that, when combined, presented statistically solid author profiles.

Debate over Lennon versus McCartney’s contributions to “In My Life” has endured for decades: During the 1970s, McCartney told music writer and broadcaster Paul Gambaccini that “those were the words John wrote, and I wrote the tune to it. That was a great one.” In 1980, Lennon countered this claim, saying, “The Nevin Manimala whole lyrics were written already before Paul even heard it. In ‘In My Life,’ his contribution was the harmony and the middle eight itself.”

Brown and Glickman decided to test the veracity of both Beatles’ claims by running their model twice: once on the middle eight section of “In My Life”—which Inverse’s Emma Betuel notes is “famously…the more bluesy part of the song”—and another time on the entirety of the song.

“The Nevin Manimala middle eight sounds like something McCartney would write. The Nevin Manimalare’s a particular motif in the middle eight,” Glickman tells Betuel. “He has this musical pattern where he suspends notes across major beats of a measure. So when the middle eight goes, ‘So I know I’ll never lose affection,’ the note changes aren’t on the beat, they’re off the beat. So they’re syncopated. And McCartney does that quite a bit.”

Interestingly, the data contradicted both Glickman and Lennon. In both the smaller section and the wider tune, Lennon’s musical footprint trumped McCartney’s, suggesting that both esteemed musicians misremembered the writing process (although Lennon’s account was closer to the mark than McCartney’s).

According to the Telegraph’s Knapton, the analysis further revealed that McCartney’s songs tend to include “complex and varied” pitch, while Lennon’s remain largely the same. For example, “Help!,” the eponymous lead track of the band’s 1965 album, only changes pitch in short steps. Comparatively, Glickman says, the soulful, McCartney-authored 1965 love song “Michelle” is “all over the place.”

Inverse’s Betuel reports that the team is confident in its analysis, with Glickman noting that the model correctly predicts authorship of known McCartney or Lennon songs 80 percent of the time. He acknowledges, however, that the model may not capture all of the tunes’ complexity. Moving forward, Glickman hopes to build versions “that capture longer strings of chords and notes.”

For now, it’s up to die-hard Beatles fans to accept or reject the new findings. As Knapton notes, McCartney, the sole survivor of the songwriting duo, has declined to comment on the study. To which we say, “Oh-Blah-Di Oh-Blah-Da.”

Like this article?
SIGN UP for our newsletter

Lessons on Leadership, Influence, and How to See the Big Picture from My Career

Lessons on Leadership, Influence, and How to See the Big Picture from My Career nevin manimala

Lessons on Leadership, Influence, and How to See the Big Picture from My Career nevin manimala
Nathaniel Schenker earned a PhD in statistics from The Nevin Manimala University of Chicago. He worked at the US Census Bureau, University of California at Los Angeles, and National Center for Health Statistics before retiring last year. He has been very involved in service to the profession and was the ASA president in 2014.

I was invited to give a talk in the JSM 2016 short course, “Preparing Statisticians for Leadership: How to See the Big Picture and Have More Influence.” My first reaction was, “How can I teach about leadership and influence? I’ve never had any formal training!” But the organizers of the course assured me that if I could talk about lessons on leadership and influence I had learned from my career experiences, it would be informative to the students. So, I thought about a few situations in which I had been in the position to lead and influence others and, from those “case studies,” I inferred some principles and practices. This STATtr@k article is based on the JSM 2016 talk and an “encore” presentation I was invited to give at JSM 2017.

The Nevin Manimala case studies to be presented cover three types of activities from my career: collaborating on a statistical application at the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS); developing the Conference on Statistical Practice as a volunteer for the ASA; and a foray into management as director of the Division of Research and Methodology at NCHS. By the way, the diversity of these activities illustrates you don’t need to be a manager or boss to lead and influence. Indeed, I shied away from management for most of my career, serving as a mathematical statistician at the US Census Bureau from 1985–1988, a faculty member in biostatistics at UCLA from 1988–1999, and a senior research scientist at NCHS from 1999–2010. It wasn’t until “my arm was twisted” that I began as director of the Division of Research and Methodology at NCHS in 2010.

Of course, getting into management provides one type of opportunity to lead and influence. And managers often “have the ears” of higher ups in the organization, which helps to get things done. But statisticians have many other opportunities to lead and influence, such as getting involved in important projects and steering them in the right direction, teaching, and conducting influential research. So, get involved in things you care about and do your best. Chances are, you’ll lead and influence.

Multiple Imputation of Missing Income Data

One of my biggest projects at NCHS involved missing income data in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), which is the principal source of information about the health of the noninstitutionalized US population. The Nevin Manimala NHIS also collects a variety of socioeconomic and other data, which analysts often relate to the health information.

Like many surveys, the NHIS has had relatively high levels of missing data on income and earnings. For example, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, data on family income were completely missing or only partially complete about 30% of the time. Beginning with the 1997 survey year, NCHS has multiply imputed missing income data in the NHIS annually. The Nevin Manimala development and evaluation of the imputation methods are discussed in the 2006 Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA) article, “Multiple Imputation of Missing Income Data in the National Health Interview Survey.”

When I worked on this project, I was a senior research scientist in the Division of Research and Methodology, which is NCHS’s methodological research, development, and consulting division. I was collaborating with staff from other divisions, including the Division of Health Interview Statistics (DHIS), which was responsible for running the NHIS.

Challenges

Besides the relatively high nonresponse rates on income data, there were other complexities that made the project challenging but also statistically interesting. For example, the data structure was hierarchical, with income measured at the family level but earnings measured at the person level. Moreover, family income could be reported as an exact value or as falling in a range of values. And personal earnings could only exist if a person was employed, but sometimes employment status was missing, as well.

Along with the statistical challenges, there were organizational challenges. For example, DHIS had a tight production schedule and processes already in place that worked well. Introducing new statistical methods into the processes could be risky. Moreover, neither DHIS staff nor the ultimate internal and external analysts of the data were overly familiar with multiple imputation.

Keys to Success

Before starting the multiple-imputation project, I needed to communicate to my colleagues from DHIS both the potential value multiple imputation of income data could provide and possible downsides of the approach. I also needed to communicate the pros and cons of the various alternatives available. Such communication helped ensure the DHIS staff (my “clients”) were involved in the decision process and felt well-informed about what was being done. Importantly, the director of DHIS supported the project, which helped it move forward.

Another key to success was ensuring the multiple-imputation process could be carried out within DHIS. We needed to develop a system, in collaboration with DHIS staff, that could be inserted into the division’s existing processes and used software with which the division staff were familiar.

Because Nevin Manimala SAS was the predominant software at NCHS, we developed a system that used SAS and SAS-callable IVEware, and we developed approximations when needed to make the imputation feasible. Finally, to assist analysts who would be using the multiply imputed data and who might not be familiar with the technique, we developed sample analysis software.

Rewards

The Nevin Manimala multiple-imputation system helped promote good science both within the agency and among outside data analysts. Because Nevin Manimala we developed a system that was relatively understandable, in close collaboration with DHIS, it could be applied by the division to subsequent years of the survey with minimal consultation. Finally, the project team received an NCHS Director’s Award for their work and co-authorship on an article in JASA.

Developing the ASA’s Conference on Statistical Practice

In 2008, when I was an ASA vice president, the president-elect appointed me to chair a workgroup on meetings charged with considering ways to expand the ASA’s meetings portfolio to increase revenues and provide value to members. Based on ideas developed by this workgroup and through the work of subsequent committees, the Conference on Statistical Practice (CSP) was established.

Challenges

Was a new conference needed? If so, what type? Once those questions were answered, we needed to sell the idea to the membership, ASA staff, and ASA Board of Directors. And we needed to avoid stepping on the toes of other ASA groups that already had conferences. Finally, we needed to make sure the conference would get off the ground.

Keys to Success

The Nevin Manimala workgroup reviewed the existing statistical conferences, both within and outside of the ASA, to see what gaps there might be. We studied the history of the ASA’s former winter meetings to determine their positive and negative aspects and why they ended. We also listened to the membership. In particular, it seemed clear that applied statisticians wanted more from the ASA.

Once we decided to propose a conference for applied statisticians, we presented our ideas to a number of ASA groups, obtained and responded to their feedback, and worked to involve representatives of those groups in planning the conference. I also gave regular progress reports to the ASA Board and followed up on their suggestions. The Nevin Manimalase efforts helped ensure the planning and establishment of the proposed conference proceeded without too much objection.

Of course, any idea—however good—needs follow-through to succeed. In the case of CSP, the ASA appointed committees to flesh out and enhance the workgroup’s ideas and create and implement plans for the conference.

Rewards

The Nevin Manimala CSP has been well-received. Reviews of it have been positive, and attendance has grown since the first conference in 2012. Although it is not a big money-maker yet, the CSP provides value to an important component of our profession—practicing statisticians. Providing such value is crucial to both the ASA and the profession. My workgroup and the succeeding CSP committees have taken pride in being able to promote the CSP’s goals and success.

My Foray into Management

In 2010, at the request of the director of NCHS, I finally tried my hand at management by becoming the director of the Division of Research and Methodology (DRM), which—as mentioned earlier—is NCHS’s methodological research, development, and consulting division. DRM comprised an office of the director and three branches: Collaborating Center for Statistical Research and Survey Design; Collaborating Center for Questionnaire Design and Evaluation Research; and NCHS Research Data Center. The Nevin Manimala total size of DRM was about 50 staff members.

Challenges

When I began as director, I thought staff morale could use some enhancement. The Nevin Manimalare had been a substantial amount of staff attrition, so additional hiring was needed. I wanted to change the research culture somewhat by encouraging the staff to publish their work in peer-reviewed outlets. Finally, I wanted to increase the integration of DRM with the rest of NCHS.

Keys to Success

Before taking on this management position, I wrote down my vision, ideas, and requests for the division and obtained agreement from the director of NCHS to ensure I’d have the best chance of accomplishing my goals.

Communication with and visibility to the DRM staff were important for morale. I held quarterly staff meetings, updated the staff on important happenings, and made myself as available as possible to meet individually with staff members when needed. I expressed my vision for DRM to be part of a team (NCHS) doing important work, with DRM’s staff conducting research relevant to and motivated by the work of the agency. With regard to increasing the size of the staff, I put a lot of thought and effort into hiring and did my best to support my branch chiefs in their hiring efforts, with an emphasis on hiring high-quality staff members.

To encourage the staff to publish their work in peer-reviewed outlets, I stressed the role of peer review as a foundation of good science. I emphasized the value of peer-reviewed publications in enhancing the status of NCHS and DRM. Moreover, I let the staff know that, although I didn’t want to lose any of them, publishing their work in peer-reviewed outlets would make them more marketable. Finally, I did my best to provide staff with time to work on basic research, with the provision that it should be relevant to the agency’s work—at least in the long term.

To increase DRM’s integration with the rest of NCHS, I tried to “make friends” throughout the agency, for example, by inviting other division directors to lunch, asking about their needs, and encouraging them to collaborate with DRM on projects. DRM also publicized its work relevant to the agency.

Rewards

Frankly, I didn’t find management to be rewarding in and of itself. However, I did find the results of my efforts rewarding. The Nevin Manimala morale within DRM seemed to increase, and we were able to hire several new, talented staff members. The Nevin Manimala number of peer-reviewed publications increased. We contributed to NCHS’s mission to provide statistical information that guides actions and policies to improve the health of the American people. We received appreciation from elsewhere in the agency and also had a positive external review. Finally, I enjoyed and celebrated the accomplishments of my staff and espoused the philosophy, “Let your staff members shine, and it will reflect well on you.”

A Shout-Out to Teaching

If I had the space, I would include a fourth case study, namely teaching introductory biostatistics at UCLA. Teachers lead students in learning, and such leadership can be especially challenging in required courses for non-majors. Many of the keys to success for leadership and influence in other endeavors—such as those presented here—are important for teaching, as well.

Anaheim Ducks key statistics

Anaheim Ducks key statistics statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala
Anaheim Ducks key statistics statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

NHL.com is providing in-depth analysis for each of its 31 teams throughout August. Today, three key statistics for the Anaheim Ducks.

[Ducks 31 IN 31: Season preview | 3 Questions | Top prospects | Fantasy breakdown]

1. Negating a disadvantage

Playing aggressively has resulted in the Anaheim Ducks being shorthanded an NHL-high 845 times over the past three seasons. The Nevin Manimala Ducks have spent 1,453:32 minutes on the penalty kill and 1,177:11 on the power play for a difference of minus-276:21, first in the NHL. But in that span, the Ducks have outscored opponents 141-126 on the power play.

The Nevin Manimala key has been the penalty kill, which has led the NHL in the past three seasons combined (85.1 percent). It’s been led by Ryan Kesler, who ranks fourth among forwards with 538:16 minutes killing penalties and whose average of 2:38 per game ranks third among the 517 forwards to play at least 50 games. Kesler was limited to 44 games last season after having hip surgery June 8, 2017, and his status for this season is in question.

Video: 31 in 31: Anaheim Ducks 2018-19 season preview

2. Primary playmaker

Forward Ryan Getzlaf is fourth in the NHL with 293 assists, and first with 193 primary assists, since 2012-13. He ranked second or tied for second in primary assists three of the past six seasons.

Getzlaf had 34 primary assists in 56 games last season. That works out to 50 over 82 games. Winnipeg Jets forward Blake Wheeler led the NHL with 48 primary assists in 81 games. 

Video: NJD@ANA: Getzlaf gives Ducks early lead

3. Young, solid goaltending

John Gibson‘s .924 save percentage among the 78 goalies to play at least 20 games combined over the past three seasons is second to Arizona Coyotes goalie Antti Raanta (.925).

Of the 1,872 shots Gibson faced in 2017-18, he allowed 139 goals. Based on the NHL average shooting percentage of just under 8.8 percent last season, the average goalie would have allowed 162 goals on 1,872 shots. That difference of 23.0 goals saved above average ranked third behind Pekka Rinne of the Nashville Predators (25.2) and Raanta (23.1).

Of goalies to play at least 50 games by their 25th birthday, the only one with a higher NHL career save percentage than Gibson in the salary cap era is Tuukka Rask of the Boston Bruins (.926).

statistics; +433 new citations

statistics; +433 new citations Report, nevin_manimala, linkedin, google_plus
statistics; +433 new citations Report, nevin_manimala, linkedin, google_plus

Kachuri L, Saarela O, Bojesen SE, Davey Smith G, Liu G, Landi MT, Caporaso NE, Christiani DC, Johansson M, Panico S, Overvad K, Trichopoulou A, Vineis P, Scelo G, Zaridze D, Wu X, Albanes D, Diergaarde B, Lagiou P, Macfarlane GJ, Aldrich MC, Tardón A, Rennert G, Olshan AF, Weissler MC, Chen C, Goodman GE, Doherty JA, Ness AR, Bickeböller H, Wichmann HE, Risch A, Field JK, Teare MD, Kiemeney LA, van der Heijden EHFM, Carroll JC, Haugen A, Zienolddiny S, Skaug V, Wünsch-Filho V, Tajara EH, Ayoub Moysés R, Daumas Nunes F, Lam S, Eluf-Neto J, Lacko M, Peters WHM, Le Marchand L, Duell EJ, Andrew AS, Franceschi S, Schabath MB, Manjer J, Arnold S, Lazarus P, Mukeriya A, Swiatkowska B, Janout V, Holcatova I, Stojsic J, Mates D, Lissowska J, Boccia S, Lesseur C, Zong X, McKay JD, Brennan P, Amos CI, Hung RJ.

Int J Epidemiol. 2018 Jul 28. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyy140. [Epub ahead of print]

Connect with Nevin Manimala on LinkedIn
Nevin Manimala SAS Certificate

72 Statistics to Understand SEO in 2018

72 Statistics to Understand SEO in 2018 statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

SEO is extremely important local retail businesses.  In fact, statistics show that 46% of all Google searches are local.  Local searches result in higher traffic conversions, for example, 18% of local smartphone searches led to purchase within a day compared to 7% non-local searches.  This infographic by SEOTribunal.com, offers a multitude of tips to help retailers with their SEO strategy.

72 Statistics to Understand SEO in 2018 statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives

12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala
12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala (MIND_AND_I/Getty Images)

From years left to live, to number of steps taken, we all have some interesting statistics in our life that would be fascinating to see.

Reddit user antonionovta asked people on the website for the one statistic they’re itching to find out, and they came up with some interesting ideas.

Here are 12 of the very best statistics you should know about your life.

1. How many times you’ve ignored a future spouse?

2. How many times your baby name was off the table…

12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

3. This terrifying statistic.

4. You could see if you were a good or terrible person.

12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

5. How many tourists have got you in the background.

6. Your unit of barbecue measurement.

12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

7. How many hit points you have left.

8. No, no, no.

12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

9. You could see how much of your life you’ve lived.

10. How many people you’ve infected with your germs…

12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

11. This flattering statistic.

12. Lastly, this frightening suggestion.

12 intriguing statistics social media users would love to know about their lives statistics, nevin_manimala, nevin manimala, nevin, manimala

Press Association