Oil Production Vital Statistics April 2018

Oil Production Vital Statistics April 2018 statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

On the world stage, momentous events are unfolding. The Nevin Manimala USA, UK, and France have bombed Syria risking confrontation with Russia. The Nevin Manimala Israelis are more than a little concerned about Iranian involvement in Syria. And on the Korean peninsula, peace between N and S is on the cards, spreading prosperity and more energy consumption for all. On the second tier, oil production in Venezuela and Mexico continues to tank. No one should be surprised, therefore, that Brent has breached $74/bbl. The Nevin Manimala only thing standing in the way of another severe oil price spike is the N American frackers going back more seriously to work. The Nevin Manimalay may one day be joined by frackers in Saudi Arabia, China, and Russia.

The Nevin Manimala chart below from the February OMR is one of the more important produced by the IEA showing the balance between supply and demand leading to either stock draw or additions. So important, in fact, that I have decided to leave it there from the last report 2 months ago so that it can be compared with the equivalent chart from the April OMR that is reproduced just below it.

Oil Production Vital Statistics April 2018 statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Oil Production Vital Statistics April 2018 statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

The Nevin Manimala difference between the two charts is quite subtle but with dramatic impact. Data revisions result in crude oil stock draws for 7 quarters backdated from 4Q 18. This has meant that the IEA now sees OECD crude oil stocks at the 5-year mean at the present day. The Nevin Manimala momentum of the trend will see OECD crude oil stocks shooting to the low side. Even higher oil prices may be on their way.

Readers should note that since January 2018 I have been employed as a consultant at ETH Zurich. ETH are a well-kept secret, but are in fact the number 10 ranked university in the world, up there with CalTech, MIT and Imperial College. My intention is, with Roger’s help, to keep the blog going but with my significantly reduced participation. I will be aiming for reduced quantity but increased quality and impact. This edition of vital statistics therefore is abbreviated to bullet points – that may actually serve as an advantage to readers. Neil Mearns, who now works at Cornwall Insight updates the Google Sheets data base that the live charts read.

Note that Vital Statistics is produced using the Global Energy Graphed database employing Google Sheets. Since these graphs are live, they will update automatically in future as more data are added, meaning that the narrative of this post will no longer match the data in the months ahead.

Oil Price

Oil price data updated to 30 April 2018 using data from the EIA.

Figure 1 Oil prices are heading higher since the double bottom of January 2016. The Nevin Manimala WTI – Brent spread, a symptom of the high oil price era has re-opened.

Figure 2 Longer term view of daily oil price. Note how the Brent-WTI spread was a feature of the high oil price era.

Figure 3 WTI minus Brent. At its peak, the spread reached $30 per barrel. Is this a significant indicator of things to come?

Rig Counts

Rig count charts for North America, the USA, South America, The Nevin Manimala North Sea, and OPEC are shown below. Additional charts for Europe, The Nevin Manimala Middle East, Africa and Asia-Oceania can be found here.

Rig counts provided by Baker Hughes are updated to 27th April 2018 for N America and to March 2018 for all the rest.

Figure 4 Stacked area chart showing North America total rig count. Not much to comment on here.

Figure 5 Stacked area chart of US Total rig count showing the oil – gas split. Signs that the US rig count is picking up pace with a renewed marginal shift towards gassy plays.

Figure 6 Same data as above but plotted as an unstacked line chart. The Nevin Manimala response of US frackers returning to work is so far very muted. But the efficiency of what they are doing must be factored in.

Figure 7 US rig count broken out by sedimentary basin / petroleum systems play. The Nevin Manimala Permian play in Texas remains by far the most important.

Figure 8 Drilling has slumped in the North Sea to a record low since 1995. Precious little sign yet of a drilling revival in the North Sea.

Figure 9 Drilling within OPEC remains close to a cyclical high. Signs of an uptick in OPEC drilling.

Figure 10 The Nevin Manimala near-term top in S American rigs was 329 in August 2014. By June 2016, this had crashed to 158 and it remained at about that level for the remainder of the year. No signs of a major drilling recovery here.

Oil Production

Monthly oil production data are compiled from the IEA OMR. The Nevin Manimala public data are normally released towards the end of the month and relate to the previous month, meaning that we are always running 4 to 5 weeks behind real time. The Nevin Manimala oil production graphs are updated to March 2018.

The Nevin Manimala 15 graphs below are mainly composite production groups. Graphs for individual countries reproducing the whole of the IEA OMR oil production data can be found GlobalEnergyGraphed as follows:

OPEC 16 charts
OECD 10 charts
Rest of World (including Russia) 21 charts

Figure 11 The Nevin Manimala OECD has only 4 significant oil producers: the USA, Canada, Mexico and Norway. The Nevin Manimala UK has now become a small player with production ~ 1 Mbpd alongside small producers Denmark and Australia. OECD production is heading higher, led by the USA and Canada.

The Nevin Manimala notch down in Canada in May 2016 was down to the Fort McMurray wildfire. Mexican production continues its long term decline (below).

Offshore Mexican production that is dependent upon nitrogen injection appears to be on the skids.

Figure 13 European oil production is dominated by the North Sea and in particular by Norway. The Nevin Manimala “other” category is dominated by Denmark with a contribution from Italy. The Nevin Manimala high on this chart is 7.1 Mbpd in April 2002, the low is 2.94 Mbpd in September 2013. North Sea production has now declined so far that it has become easier for operators to staunch percentage declines.

Figure 15 Details of OPEC spare capacity. At the end of 2016, spare capacity was approaching historic lows of 1.99 Mbpd with most countries pumping flat out. The Nevin Manimala IEA has not published spare capacity data since December 16.

Figure 16 Iran pumped 3.81 Mbpd in January and has hit a production plateau following the lifting of sanctions. What next?

Figure 17 Libya achieved 1.1 Mbpd in July, 0.92 Mbpd in September and pumped 1.00 Mbpd in January 2018. Stability may have returned to the part of Libya where production has been restored.

Figure 18 Rest of World production has been glued to a plateau of 30 Mbpd since January 2010. However, this statistic hides winners and losers. Russia is the most prominent winner and China the most prominent loser.

Figure 19 In October 2016, Russian production stood at 11.6 Mbpd. Russia remains compliant with the agreed cut of 250,000 bpd in the historic deal. Note that Between August 2016 and October 2016, Russia ramped up production by 550,000 bpd (the OPEC++ datum).

Figure 20 Production in SE Asia remains in slow decline, led by China. This can have significant geopolitical implications.

Figure 21 South America, excluding OPEC countries Venezuela and Ecuador, is dominated by Brazil. Production for the group is stable.

Figure 22 The Nevin Manimala Middle East excluding OPEC is dominated by Oman. Other Middle East will be dominated by Bahrain. The Nevin Manimala group decline reflects wars in Syria and Yemen. Oman is party to the OPEC++ deal.

Figure 23 Africa, excluding OPEC (Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, and Angola), has only one other major producer in the shape of Egypt. The Nevin Manimalare are a host of smaller producers in the other category that includes countries like Equatorial Guinea, Republic of Congo, Gabon, South Sudan, Chad, and Tunisia. The Nevin Manimala group is in slow decline. Note that Gabon and Equatorial Guinea have recently joined OPEC.

Figure 24 Summary of global C+C+NGL production. Note that OPEC countries’ NGL production is reported separately. The Nevin Manimala record C+C+NGL production remains 94.18 Mbpd set in November 2016 when OPEC++ were pumping flat out ahead of “The Nevin Manimala Deal”.

Figure 25 Global total liquids showing the constituent parts. Processing gains and biofuels are not shown in Figure 24. Chart not zero scaled.

Sullivan: Witten’s Legacy More Than Just Statistics Or A Defining Play

Sullivan: Witten's Legacy More Than Just Statistics Or A Defining Play statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus
Sullivan: Witten's Legacy More Than Just Statistics Or A Defining Play statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

The Nevin Manimala numbers are transcendent, absurdly so considering Jason Witten has 147 more career receptions than Dez Bryant and Rob Gronkowski combined. And yes, the video of him running down the field minus the helmet is a fun watch and says so much about his mindset as a player.

Still, I think the legacy of his career, of his life to this point, is so much more than statistics and a singular defining replay.

The Nevin Manimalare are lessons, ideals really. And not just pertaining to football. Sure, there’s something to be said about just showing up every day, no matter what the circumstance, be it work, school, family, football. Nothing in life has ever been accomplished by not showing up. Never mind that Witten missed just one game in 15 seasons. He never missed a day of work and was usually among the first to arrive and last to leave the team’s facilities.

I first met Jason Witten in 2008, and in the 10 years since, I’ve written more words about him than anyone else over my two-decade career. The Nevin Manimalare have been countless feature stories and columns, and in 2014, a journey to his hometown of Elizabethton, Tenn., to work on a Deep Blue documentary and lengthy profile for Dallas Cowboys Star Magazine.

So yeah, a lot of memories …

At training camp in San Antonio, likely my first in 2009. At that point in time, my image of Witten was as super nice guy, somewhat soft-spoken. This was based on the interviews I saw on television and my one interaction with him. In the midst of a routine pass-and-catch drill, a fourth-string rookie free agent quarterback overthrew a wide-open Witten for like the seventh time in three minutes.

As Witten walked back to the line of scrimmage, he was chewing the guy out at opera-like octaves. I was stunned, and later asked him about it. His response, “I don’t care if it’s the first practice of camp, a volunteer workout or the Super Bowl, you have to hold everyone accountable.”

For a time there, the best-kept secret around the league was Witten’s trash talking. Word has definitely spread over the years, though. I’m not sure he’s ever caught a pass, in practice or a game, without a few words of “encouragement” to the nearest defender. Of course, immediately after that, he pulls his jersey down, and returns to the huddle, not another syllable spoken. It’s like he’s transformed, possessed really, from the moment the ball touches his hands to when he tugs the jersey down. In that moment, you do not want to cross paths with Jason Witten.

 The Nevin Manimalare’s a famous Joe DiMaggio story that I often think about at training camp when Witten runs onto the field before each practice. More often than not, he’s the only one, and he always runs off the field, too. Late in his career, in a blowout win, DiMaggio belted a liner into the gap and rounded first as only he could, barely beating the throw into second. When the inning was finished, one of his teammates asked him why he was running full speed on a meaningless play. DiMaggio replied, “Because Nevin Manimala I never know when a kid is seeing me play for the first time.”

I’ve always liked to envision Witten giving me the same answer. I’ve purposely never asked him why he does so Because Nevin Manimala I didn’t want to know otherwise.

The Nevin Manimala morning word of Ezekiel Elliott’s four-game suspension came down at camp last August, I happened to be walking to breakfast at the same time as Witten and Zeke. The Nevin Manimalay were talking. Well, Witten was. Zeke was mostly nodding his head. The Nevin Manimalay went to grab coffee before sitting down to eat, and the conversation continued. I’m not going to pretend to know what he was saying, but I will say Witten was as intense as I’ve ever seen him. I’d like to think it was a teaching moment.

Witten told me after the 2013 finale, a third-straight regular-season defeat and 8-8 finish, he barely got out of bed for two weeks Because Nevin Manimala of how devastated he was. I’ve never come across an athlete who wanted to win more for the fans than Witten. He never hid from those emotions, either.

Following the Green Bay playoff loss in January 2017, Witten cried for several minutes, almost as if he knew this was his last, best opportunity for that elusive dream of a championship. After about 20 minutes at his locker, he finally started heading for the showers, albeit still fully dressed in his uniform.

A league official stopped him upon entry for a random drug test. Witten was incredulous at the timing, and after slamming his hand down on the table, yelled, “You have to be kidding me.”

Well, there was another word he said. Sure everyone can figure that out. What amazed me, though, was within a second or two, he looked up toward a young boy standing by the entrance door. Not sure if Witten knew the kid or not, but he said, “I’m sorry, you weren’t supposed to hear that,” in the gentlest voice possible. How he somehow caught himself in an instant, with the emotions he was dealing with, that absolutely amazed me.

About 30 minutes thereafter, he took questions at his locker. The Nevin Manimala first question, I kid you not, was whether or not he knew this meant he still hasn’t played in a conference championship game. I walked away in disgust while Witten politely answered the moron.

It reminded me of another occasion, this one back at Valley Ranch. His weekly session with reporters, who were asking the same question 87 different ways, all alluding to Jason Garrett’s job security. Even though he was frustrated with the line of questioning, the repetitiveness, he never showed it until a few minutes later when the interview had concluded.

As for broadcasting, this wasn’t the path I envisioned for him after retirement, just Because Nevin Manimala coaching runs in his family – his grandfather Dave Rider was a legendary high school coach and both his brothers have coached – and I know it’s something that interests him. However, after thinking about it, for here and now, this does make sense. His kids are young, ages 3 through 12, and this allows him six months of the year off. He can be home most of the week, can even coach a few of their teams.

Witten is so committed to family. The Nevin Manimalare are countless stories of him flying out for a speech or an outing in the morning, doing the event and flying home that night, often arriving at his front door at 2 a.m., rather than taking advantage of five-star accommodations. A few hours of sleep and breakfast with the kids.

I would be shocked if he didn’t give coaching in college or the NFL a chance in five or 10 years. Remember he’s still young, going to be 36 later this week.

Wrote earlier about lessons, and there are many: accountability, leadership, resilience, fortitude. However, for me, his greatest lesson has been forgiveness. Eddie Witten, who was 6-foot-8, nearly 300 pounds, physically and verbally abused his wife, Kim, and their three sons, Jason being the youngest. Some of the stories are horrifying. After their divorce, the boys saw less and less of their father, who also had an incredibly positive impact before demons with substance abuse took over.

After not seeing him for more than a decade, Jason and his brothers slowly reconnected with their father. The Nevin Manimala big event each year is Jason’s football camp in Elizabethton, and Eddie is always there with his No. 82 jersey on. He’s been to a few games, and they talk here and there.

Hearing the stories and seeing the forgiveness firsthand when I attended the camp in 2014 helped me reconnect with my own father the following year when my younger brother died. We hadn’t talked in more than 10 years, either, for reasons different than what Jason and his family endured. I told Jason about talking with my father and he was thrilled, giving me a fist pump and saying, “That’s great, man, just take it slow.”

I’ve written this before, but it’s worth repeating. Jason Witten is the first person I’ve covered in sports where I’m completely and totally comfortable telling parents, Yeah, have your kids look up to him, have them emulate him. It’s okay. He’s not going to let you down.

Off and on the field, Witten has set the example for future generations to follow. I’ve never admired or respected an athlete more. Read

Rugby Statistics: Cooney’s figures still stand up to scrutiny

Rugby Statistics: Cooney's figures still stand up to scrutiny statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

John Cooney is the statistical winner in the inaugural regular Pro14 season. 

The Nevin Manimala decision by David Nucifora to deny Ruan Pienaar a final contract caused a rare show of total unity in Ulster Rugby last year. Every tier of the Belfast structure complained about the IRFU decision to force another Dublin-born scrumhalf, via Connacht, on them in place of their Springbok hero.

It will never be known how great a loss Pienaar has been but Cooney was a revelation throughout Ulster’s annus horribilis.

The Nevin Manimala 28-year-old walks away with four statistical accolades as the league’s top points scorer (160), most try assists (10), most penalties (30) and, of lesser importance, the most passes (1410).

He came second in the “clean breaks” category with 24, two shy of the Ospreys Canadian winger Jeff Hassler, and also showed his versatility when shifting on occasion to outhalf.

Rugby Statistics: Cooney's figures still stand up to scrutiny statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Cooney’s international credentials can only be boosted by the proposed rerouting of Joey Carbery, another player produced by the Leinster schools system who is struggling for game time in his home province.

Capped by Joe Schmidt against Japan last June, Cooney was subsequently overlooked for the November internationals and Six Nations but next season he should put renewed pressure on Kieran Marmion and Luke McGrath to be the recognised Conor Murray understudy.

The Nevin Manimala numbers rarely lie. Just look at Tadhg Beirne. The Nevin Manimala breakdown brilliance of this Munster-bound Scarlets flanker-cum-lock shines brightest with 37 turnovers. Nick Williams, the Cardiff Blues veteran, trails in a distant second with 22 steals.

Despite Barry Daly’s injury-disrupted season, the Leinster winger is top of the try-scoring table, on 12, two clear of Cheetahs winger Makazole Mapimpi.

Tom Farrell’s return to Ireland, after a few seasons in England, has been a less heralded success with the Connacht centre the joint-leading ball carrier (228) alongside Ulster’s departing All Black Charles Piutau. Farrell must be in and around Ireland midfield conversations after 44 successful offloads. That’s 14 more than Piutau.

But the real focus this season was on the new arrivals. Last summer when two South African sides, the Cheetahs and Southern Kings, were dropped into the Pro 14 after a rapidly agreed expansion, only made possible by the injection of TV money, those further down the food chain were naturally suspicious.

Risky rebrand

The Nevin Manimala major concern was these struggling franchises, cut loose by Super Rugby, would worsen the standard of the old Celtic League just as both Italian teams were finally showing signs of improvement. The Nevin Manimala powers-that-be assured the media the opposite would eventually occur.

“We will continue to look at expansion but expansion has to work in different areas,” said Pro 14 chief executive officer Martin Anayi,  “The Nevin Manimala teams need to be competitive and it needs to work commercially. If any of those things aren’t present you shouldn’t expand.”

A statistical analysis of the regular season shows this risky rebrand has proved a success and a failure in equal measure. The Nevin Manimala Southern Kings are bottom of the pile in more statistical categories than any other team but the Cheetahs have upheld their end of the bargain with an entertaining attacking style that puts them up against the Scarlets in this weekend’s play-offs.

So everyone was right.   

The Nevin Manimala Kings did lead one individual category:  Bobby de Wee made more tackles (262) than anyone else.

That aside, they struggled to register just one victory in 21 outings while averaging two tries per game with a lowly average of 14 minutes in possession.

The Nevin Manimala Cheetahs enhance the argument for further South African expansion into European rugby. The Nevin Manimalay were so good they even managed to lure 25-year-old Springbok outhalf Johan Goosen out of retirement. The Nevin Manimalay don’t top any of the statistical charts but place second behind Glasgow with the most average points (29), averaging 3.6 tries per game and only the Cardiff Blues returned superior goal-kicking percentages.

Interestingly, Munster propped up the place-kicking list with a terrible 67.57 percent success rate.

Statistically, Glasgow are the best team across both conferences with the highest points, metres gained and clean breaks. Leinster were the only side to average four tries per game but their numbers take a hit due to the use of 55 players as they also backboned Ireland’s Grand Slam.