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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Investigating the reproducibility of the social and behavioural sciences

Nature. 2026 Apr;652(8108):126-134. doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-10203-5. Epub 2026 Apr 1.

ABSTRACT

Published claims should be reproducible, yielding the same result when the same analysis is applied to the same data1,2. Here we assess reproducibility in a stratified random sample of 600 papers published from 2009 to 2018 in 62 journals spanning the social and behavioural sciences. The authors of 144 (24.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 20.8-27.6%) papers made data available to assess reproducibility and, for 38 others, we obtained source data to reconstruct the dataset. We assessed 143 out of the 182 available datasets and found that 76.6 (53.6%, 95% CI = 45.8-60.7%) papers were rated as precisely reproducible and 105.0 (73.5%, 95% CI = 66.4-80.0%) were rated as at least approximately reproducible (within 15% of the original effects or within 0.05 of original P values) after inverse weighting each of the 551 claims by the number of claims per paper. We observed higher reproducibility for papers from political science and economics compared with other fields, for more recent papers compared with older papers and for papers from journals that require data sharing. Implementation of measures to verify that research is reproducible is needed to support trustworthiness in the complex enterprise of knowledge production3,4.

PMID:41922699 | DOI:10.1038/s41586-026-10203-5

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Mitochondrial hyperoxidation contributes to warm ischemia-reperfusion injury in rat and pig livers

Commun Med (Lond). 2026 Apr 1. doi: 10.1038/s43856-026-01551-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial dysfunction is a critical factor in several diseases, but current in situ assessment methods are severely limited. Non-invasive monitoring of mitochondrial redox state using resonance Raman Spectroscopy (RRS) offers a promising solution. This study aims to demonstrate RRS utility with liver models of warm ischemia-reperfusion injury in organ transplantation.

METHODS: Lewis rat (female) and Yorkshire pig (both sexes) livers were evaluated during reperfusion by subnormothermic machine perfusion, with 3-6 replicates per study group, and statistical comparisons using unpaired two-tailed Student’s t-tests with Welch’s correction for potentially unequal variance. RRS provides in situ quantification of the overall mitochondrial redox state, and herein further refined to resolve the redox state of individual complex III and IV.

RESULTS: Here we show that RRS can differentiate non-viable rat livers (3 h warm ischemia, WI) from viable 1 h WI and fresh controls as early as 30 mins into reperfusion. RRS also identifies dysfunction at complex III characterized by hyperoxidation during reperfusion. This guides us to test methylene blue, which acts as an alternate electron donor to bypass complex III, as treatment rescuing mitochondria from WI-induced reperfusion injury. When tested on pig marginal livers with extended WI (30-45 mins), our RRS-guided treatment enables recovery of hemodynamics and oxygen/lactate values that approached controls without WI.

CONCLUSIONS: RRS assessment and guided treatment with methylene blue provide two lines of evidence indicating that mitochondrial hyperoxidation, specifically at complex III, is a critical mechanism underlying warm ischemia-reperfusion injury. This study demonstrates the potential of RRS for transplantation and broader applications.

PMID:41922695 | DOI:10.1038/s43856-026-01551-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Obstacle-aware inverse kinematics of variable-length continuum robots via teaching-learning-based optimization with experimental validation

Sci Rep. 2026 Apr 1. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-46132-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Continuum robots offer high dexterity and compliance, which makes them attractive for tasks in confined, hazardous, and hard-to-reach environments. Despite this potential, inverse kinematics (IK) for multi-section continuum robots remains challenging due to strong nonlinearities and redundancy, and the problem becomes more demanding when each section can actively change its backbone length. This paper addresses obstacle-aware IK for a cable-driven variable-length continuum robot by formulating IK as a constrained optimization problem built on a constant-curvature forward kinematic model. A teaching-learning-based optimization (TLBO) algorithm is adopted to search for section bending angles, orientation angles, and section lengths that minimize end-effector tracking error while avoiding static obstacles through a capsule-based penalty constraint handling strategy that accounts for the robot’s physical radial dimension. The approach is evaluated through multiple three-dimensional MATLAB simulations, including linear and circular trajectory tracking with and without obstacle avoidance, and is benchmarked against particle swarm optimization (PSO), a real-coded genetic algorithm (GA), and differential evolution (DE) over 30 independent runs. Statistical analysis shows that TLBO achieves the best or near-best tracking accuracy (mean error [Formula: see text] mm, best [Formula: see text] mm) while requiring no algorithm-specific tuning parameters. The method is further validated experimentally on a Continuum Bionic Handling Assistant (CBHA) platform by comparing the IK-derived cable-length profiles with potentiometer-based measurements. The results demonstrate accurate trajectory tracking in simulation and good agreement with experimental cable-length measurements, supporting the feasibility of TLBO for constrained IK of variable-length continuum robots.

PMID:41922682 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-026-46132-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Model-based economic analysis under uncertainty for PFAS treatment by granular activated carbon and ion exchange technologies

J Environ Manage. 2026 Mar 31;404:129407. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129407. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Recent drinking water regulations have imposed remediation for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). In response, treatment facilities may be required to retrofit existing treatment schemes to treat PFAS below maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Adsorption technologies such as granular activated carbon (GAC) and ion exchange (IX) have been demonstrated to be effective; however, there are limited techno-economic metrics available that provide guidance on technology selection and design for diverse PFAS-containing source water conditions. Process systems engineering (PSE) tools that traditionally perform these analyses are hindered by the data availability, model validity, and understanding of treatment phenomena for emerging contaminants. This work employs published data regressions, statistical models, process models, techno-economic analyses, and other process systems tools in a model-based uncertainty framework to consider the limitations of emerging contaminant research. Through this analysis framework, economic results are provided as probabilistic distributions based on the uncertainty of the models and diverse conditions that treatment facilities experience. Regressed parameter distributions and model predictive performance trends for each technology are identified based on PFAS structure and chain length. GAC systems are evaluated at consistently lower levelized costs of water (LCOWs) with less economic risk over IX systems considering uncertainty across most design conditions and PFAS species. Both technologies are evaluated to have comparable adsorbent usage intensity on a volume basis, indicative of similar sustainability.

PMID:41921266 | DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129407

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Supersensitive and robust disease monitoring in oropharyngeal cancer patients by circulating tumor HPV-DNA sequencing (ctHPV-DNAseq)

Transl Oncol. 2026 Mar 31;67:102744. doi: 10.1016/j.tranon.2026.102744. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Post-treatment disease monitoring of HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is challenging. Liquid biopsies could improve disease monitoring, but the variety in methods hampers clinical implementation. In this study, target-enrichment sequencing to detect circulating tumor HPV DNA (ctHPV-DNA) was applied in liquid biopsies of HPV-positive OPSCC patients, and robust statistical readouts determined. Next, it was investigated whether longitudinal plasma monitoring could accurately diagnose residual and recurrent disease.

METHODS: The target-enrichment panel included 29 cancer genes and high-risk HPV genomes. The assay was tested on plasma from 30 non-cancer controls and 33 patients with HPV-positive tumors, 15 of whom had residual or recurrent disease, and 18 who remained disease-free. Samples were analyzed from baseline to 24 months after treatment.

RESULTS: By determining and applying robust statistical cut-off values, ctHPV-DNA could be detected in plasma of all patients with HPV-positive OPSCC at baseline, and was absent in plasma of all non-cancer controls. In OPSCC patients who remained disease-free, post-treatment plasma samples were negative for ctHPV-DNA. In contrast, ctHPV-DNA was detected in plasma of all OPSCC patients with recurrent disease to a year before clinical diagnosis. Cases suspect for residual disease in the neck, but with a necrotic metastasis without vital tumor after resection, tested correctly negative for ctHPV-DNA in plasma.

CONCLUSIONS: Target-enrichment sequencing of plasma shows 100% accurate detection of ctHPV-DNA at baseline. Longitudinal monitoring enables early recurrence detection and correct diagnosis of non-vital residual disease. The data indicate that liquid biopsy could improve post-treatment follow-up in HPV-positive OPSCC patients.

PMID:41921264 | DOI:10.1016/j.tranon.2026.102744

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Baseline symptom severity and response to multisession cathodal transcranial direct current stimulation in adolescents and young adults with autism: an exploratory analysis

J Psychiatr Res. 2026 Mar 26;198:203-209. doi: 10.1016/j.jpsychires.2026.03.043. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Identifying baseline clinical characteristics associated with treatment response is crucial for optimising intervention strategies in people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This study aimed to distinguish responders from non-responders to a multisession prefrontal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) protocol and to explore how baseline individual characteristics relate to treatment outcomes.

METHODS: Using complementary inferential statistics and predictive modelling approaches, we analysed baseline clinical characteristics of adolescents and young adults with ASD who underwent cathodal tDCS (1.5 mA) over the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, coupled with cognitive remediation training. Baseline symptom severity was assessed using the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R). Normalised feature importance and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were used to identify features associated with restricted and repetitive behaviour (RRB) reduction, and a model-derived classification threshold was estimated to stratify potential responders and non-responders within this protocol.

RESULTS: Inferential statistics revealed that responders had significantly lower social interaction symptom severity than non-responders (p < .001; Cohen’s d = 0.41). Predictive modelling further indicated that lower baseline verbal communication severity was associated with greater RRB reduction (averaged SHAP value across models = -0.017). A model-derived classification threshold of 19.6 on the ADI-R verbal communication sub-score was identified to differentiate responders and non-responders within this protocol.

CONCLUSION: Lower baseline verbal communication severity is associated with greater behavioural improvement following this multisession prefrontal tDCS protocol. These findings should be interpreted as exploratory and hypothesis-generating. Replication in larger, independent cohorts is required to assess the robustness and generalisability of these findings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT05035511).

PMID:41921246 | DOI:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2026.03.043

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Interactions between mental health predictors on post-concussive depressive symptoms among service members and veterans with concussion

J Psychiatr Res. 2026 Mar 17;198:194-202. doi: 10.1016/j.jpsychires.2026.03.019. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: US service members and veterans (SMVs) are at an increased risk for both concussion and mental health disorders such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorders (PTSD). Although depression history has been shown associated with elevated post-concussive depressive symptoms, it is unclear whether this relationship changes in the presence of other mental health conditions such as PTSD. This study evaluated whether the relationship between depression history and the level of post-concussive depressive symptoms varied by pre-injury PTSD.

METHODS: Data from 427 SMVs with concussion history from a US military medical center was used for this cross-sectional study. Concussion, pre-injury depression, and PTSD were assessed through medical record review and self-report, and the level of post-injury depressive symptoms was measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies- Depression Scale. Poisson regression with robust error variance was utilized to evaluate the association of pre-injury depression with clinically-elevated depressive symptoms post-injury, and interaction by pre-injury PTSD.

RESULTS: Participants with (vs. without) pre-injury depression were significantly more likely to have clinically-elevated depressive symptoms post-injury, but only in the presence of pre-injury PTSD (PR = 2.02, CI = 1.45, 2.81) and not without (PR = 1.12, CI = 0.84, 1.50). Interaction by pre-injury PTSD was statistically significant (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Depression history has been shown to elevate post-concussive depressive symptoms; however, the findings of this study suggest that this association may exist only in the presence of pre-injury PTSD. Identification of SMVs with concomitant depression and PTSD history may further inform the concussion treatment of those who may likely have clinically-elevated post-concussive depressive symptoms.

PMID:41921245 | DOI:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2026.03.019

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Training for the unexpected: Enhancing driver preparedness through hazard awareness. A 15-year cohort study

Accid Anal Prev. 2026 Mar 31;232:108536. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2026.108536. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This cohort study investigates the long-term effects of simulator-based hazard awareness training (HAT) on learner and novice drivers in the Netherlands, using a dataset of 2,372 participants over a 15-year period. Most prior studies on HAT have measured only immediate post-training outcomes; no longitudinal cohort study with a control group has previously examined both supervised and unsupervised driving outcomes over a multi-year horizon. Although the HAT and control groups showed small but statistically significant differences in gender composition, education level, and fear of driving at the start of training, the effect sizes were negligible (d ≤ 0.09), and these characteristics are addressed as covariates in the analyses. HAT improved performance during simulator training and supervised driving: HAT students’ viewing skills were better during the intersection test, required fewer on-road training hours, passed the driving exam in fewer attempts, and achieved a higher first-attempt pass rate than the control group. These benefits did not persist into unsupervised post-licensing driving. Violations, errors, and accident involvement were comparable between HAT and control group drivers in the first and last year after licensing. Personal characteristics – including gender, licensing age, self-assessed driving competence, and subjective driving difficulty – were stronger and more lasting predictors of post-licensing behaviour than training type. These findings suggest that hazard awareness is a trainable skill, but that training effects on risk-taking behaviour are moderated by individual characteristics that emerge most clearly once drivers operate independently, aligning with findings of a previous study on the same dataset. Teaching higher safety margins during supervised driving may offer a more durable route to reducing accident risk for novice drivers than higher-order skill training alone.

PMID:41921244 | DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2026.108536

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Learning from geometry-aware near misses to real-time COR: A corridor-wide grouped random parameters GEV framework

Accid Anal Prev. 2026 Mar 31;232:108456. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2026.108456. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Real-time corridor-wide crash-occurrence risk (COR) prediction is challenging, since existing near-miss EVT models oversimplify collision geometry, neglect vehicle-infrastructure (V-I) interactions, and fail to adequately account for spatial heterogeneity in traffic and roadway conditions. To do so, this study develops a geometry-aware 2D-TTC near-miss extraction and integrates it with a hierarchical Bayesian structure grouped random parameters (HBSGRP-UGEV) to estimate short-term COR in urban corridors. Building on prior grouped EVT formulations while explicitly accommodating both V-V and V-I near-miss processes within a unified corridor-wide modeling framework. High-resolution trajectories from the Argoverse-2 dataset were analyzed across 28 sites on Miami’s Biscayne Boulevard to extract extreme near-miss events. The model incorporates vehicle dynamics and roadway features as covariates, with partial pooling across segments and intersections to capture corridor-wide heterogeneity. Results show that the HBSGRP-UGEV framework outperforms fixed-parameter HBSFP-UGEV models, reducing DIC by up to 7.5% (V-V) and 3.1% (V-I). Predictive validation using ROC-AUC confirms strong accuracy (0.89 for V-V segments, 0.82 for intersections, 0.79 for V-I segments, and 0.75 for intersections). Grouped random-parameters (HBSGRP) framework indicate that relative (speed, distance, and deceleration) dominate V-V near-miss risk on segments, whereas V-I segment risk is primarily associated with relative distance; at intersections, V-V risk is driven by relative (speed and distance), while V-I dynamics exhibit no statistically significant effects. These findings demonstrate the value of a geometry-aware, spatially adaptive framework for proactive corridor safety management, supporting both real-time interventions and long-term Vision Zero goals.

PMID:41921243 | DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2026.108456

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The value of ankle inclusion in ultrasound screening for crystal deposits and inflammation in asymptomatic hyperuricemia

Eur J Radiol. 2026 Mar 19;199:112792. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrad.2026.112792. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated whether extending the conventional Stewart ultrasound protocol to include the ankle (ankle-inclusive protocol) improves monosodium urate (MSU) crystal detection in asymptomatic hyperuricemia (AH), compared to further extension with the second metatarsophalangeal joint (MTP2-extended protocol), and whether quantitative crystal burden correlates with subclinical inflammation.

METHODS: In this retrospective single-center study, 94 adults with AH and with no history of clinical gout underwent three ultrasound protocols: Stewart (knees, MTP1), ankle-inclusive (knees, MTP1, ankles), and MTP2-extended (knees, MTP1, ankles, MTP2). MSU crystals and Power Doppler (PD) signals were defined per OMERACT 2021. A novel ankle crystal load score (crystal_score) was developed. Statistical analyses included McNemar’s test, ROC analysis, and multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS: Adding ankle assessment to the Stewart protocol significantly increased MSU crystal detection by 14.9% (85.1% vs. 70.2%, p < 0.001), whereas subsequent MTP2 addition provided no significant gain (4.3%, p = 0.125). Of the 14 cases detected solely by ankle assessment, the majority (85.7%, 12/14) belonged to the high-risk subgroup (serum uric acid [SUA] ≥ 480 μmol/L), and 28.6% (4/14) exhibited PD signals at the ankle. The crystal_score demonstrated significant discriminative ability for subclinical inflammation (AUC = 0.677, p = 0.003) and was an independent predictor after adjustment (adjusted OR = 1.16 per unit, p = 0.001), particularly in patients with SUA < 480 μmol/L (AUC = 0.709, p = 0.013).

CONCLUSION: Ankle ultrasonography significantly improves MSU crystal detection in AH and should be integrated into screening protocols. The crystal_score has significant discriminative ability as a quantifiable biomarker for subclinical inflammation, especially in patients with SUA < 480 μmol/L, with its moderate correlation (Spearman’s ρ = 0.333) reflecting the “silent deposition” phase of AH. MTP2 assessment can be omitted.These findings support standardized, risk-stratified ultrasound workflows for AH management.

PMID:41921238 | DOI:10.1016/j.ejrad.2026.112792