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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Metaphyseal Metal Sleeves for Reconstruction of Severe Knee Bone Defects: Excellent Survival Rate at a Mean Follow-Up of 6.4 Years

Orthop Surg. 2023 Oct 24. doi: 10.1111/os.13905. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Management of bone loss in complex primary and revision total knee arthroplasty is key to the surgeries. Metaphyseal metal sleeves have been increasingly used recently to reconstruct severe knee metaphyseal bone defects. This study aimed to investigate the outcomes of the metaphyseal sleeve reconstructing Anderson Orthopedic Research Institute (AORI) type II and type III bone defects of knee joint.

METHODS: From 2014 to 2019, a total of 44 knees were enrolled in this clinical retrospective study after the screening, including seven cases of primary TKA and 37 cases of revision TKA. The types of bone defects involved in this study were AORI types II and III, and did not involve AORI type I bone defects. Patients’ knee function preoperatively and postoperatively as well as quality of life were recorded and analyzed. Analysis included the American Knee Society Score (KSS), hospital for special surgery knee score (HSS), the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities (WOMAC) index, the Short Form 12 (SF-12) health survey, visual analogue scale score, and radiographic assessment with a mean follow-up of 6.4 years. Paired t-tests were used to determine the significance of changes in clinical scores and knee mobility.

RESULTS: A mean follow-up of 77.2 (±17.6, standard deviation [SD]) months was performed, and none of the patients underwent knee revision for infection or aseptic loosening. At the last follow-up, the KSS knee score changed statistically from 37.1 (±19.7) preoperatively to 86.5 (±13.6, SD, p < 0.001) postoperatively and the KSS function score from 32.7 (±24.0) preoperatively to 78.3 (±15.6, SD, p < 0.001) postoperatively. The knee mobility improved from a mean of preoperative 72.61° (±33.42°, SD) to 108.52° (±24.15°, SD, p < 0.001). Postoperative radiographs showed that the host bone was tightly integrated with the metaphyseal metal sleeve, and there was no obvious translucent line formation around the sleeve. Of the patients, 86.4% had a postoperative satisfaction score ≥8 (10-point scale).

CONCLUSION: At the mean follow-up of 6.4 years, the survival rate of the metaphyseal sleeves was 100%. Metaphyseal sleeves combined with cementless stems is an excellent and viable option for reconstruction of AORI type II and type III bone defects of the knee.

PMID:37873568 | DOI:10.1111/os.13905

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Increasing illness severity of skilled nursing facility patients over time: Implications for readmission penalties

J Am Geriatr Soc. 2023 Oct 24. doi: 10.1111/jgs.18629. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Current financial penalties for rehospitalization of skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) patients are based in part on the studies by Ouslander et al., 2011, and Mor et al., 2010, demonstrating that many SNF hospitalizations were avoidable. With increasing age, complex illness severity, and use of SNFs for subacute rehabilitation, readmission metrics and financial penalties based on previous data may be due for reevaluation.

METHODS: Retrospective electronic medical record (EMR) review of 21,591 admissions and discharges between 2010 and 2019 inclusive. Data extracted included demographics, LACE, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and simplified HOSPITAL score parameters. The scores were calculated for the study years from the extracted data. Patients readmitted to the hospital within 30 days were identified.

RESULTS: Mean yearly score of all three indices rose steadily: LACE score 10.76-12.04 (0.43 estimated annual increase, 95% CI [0.39, 0.46]), CCI 4.26-5.05 (0.31 estimated annual increase, 95% CI [0.27, 0.34]), and simplified HOSPITAL score 3.46-4.03 (0.21 estimated annual increase, 95% CI [0.18, 0.24]). The estimated probability of readmission across observed CCI scores ranged from 15.4% to 15.9%, 95% CI bounds (10.8%, 22.7%). The estimated probability of readmission across observed LACE scores ranged from 4.7% to 36.3%, 95% CI bounds (3.4%, 54.7%). The estimated probability of readmission across observed HOSPITAL scores ranged from 5.8% to 54.1%, 95% CI bounds (6.2%, 66.0%).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The study confirms anecdotal experience that the illness acuity of patients admitted to SNFs increased progressively over time and was associated with an increased risk of 30-day readmissions to the hospital. Our study suggests that the use of clinically validated readmission risk assessment tools instead of the Skilled Nursing Facility Value-Based Purchasing Program (SNF VBP) current risk adjustors may be a more accurate reflection of the current illness severity of a facility’s patient population at the time of payment adjustment.

PMID:37873563 | DOI:10.1111/jgs.18629

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Pediatric model-based dose optimization using a pooled exposure-response safety analysis for nivolumab and nivolumab plus ipilimumab combination in melanoma

CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol. 2023 Oct 23. doi: 10.1002/psp4.13070. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

An exposure-response (E-R) safety analysis was conducted across adult and pediatric (<18 years) studies to evaluate the potential impact of higher nivolumab and/or ipilimumab exposures in adolescents (≥12 to <18 years ) versus adults with melanoma using the approved adult dosing regimens for nivolumab alone or in combination with ipilimumab. Data from 3507 patients across 15 studies were used to examine the relationship between nivolumab-ipilimumab daily average exposure (Cavg ) and time to grade 2+ immune-mediated adverse events (gr2+ IMAEs). Results from the E-R safety model showed ipilimumab, but not nivolumab, exposure to be a statistically significant predictor of gr2+ IMAEs. Significant covariates included sex (41% higher risk for women than men), line of therapy (19% higher for first-line than later-line), and treatment setting (26% lower for adjuvant than advanced melanoma). Younger age and lower body weight (BW) were each associated with a lower risk of gr2+ IMAEs (hazard ratio, 0.830 for 15-year-olds versus 60-year-olds and 0.84 for BW 52 kg versus 75 kg). For adolescents with melanoma treated with nivolumab in the advanced or adjuvant settings, these results are supportive of nivolumab flat dosing regimens for adolescents ≥40 kg and BW-based dosing for adolescents <40 kg. These results also support adult weight-based dosing regimens for nivolumab plus ipilimumab in adolescents with advanced melanoma. This analysis suggests that although higher exposures are predicted in adolescents with lower weight compared with adults, there is no predicted immune-mediated safety risk when treated with the approved adult dosing of nivolumab with/without ipilimumab.

PMID:37873561 | DOI:10.1002/psp4.13070

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Association between optic atrophy 1 polymorphisms and primary open angle glaucoma risk: Based on a meta-analysis

Eur J Ophthalmol. 2023 Oct 23:11206721231208244. doi: 10.1177/11206721231208244. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggested a significant association between optic atrophy 1 (OPA1) polymorphisms and primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) risk. However, the current data are inconsistent or even contradictory. Given these, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the precise association between OPA1 polymorphisms and POAG risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Online databases were retrieved, and the related studies were reviewed from inception to December 1, 2022. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to examine the statistical power of each genetic model. In addition, heterogeneity, sensitivity, cumulative analysis, and publication bias were analyzed to guarantee statistical power.

RESULT: Overall, 14 studies within 11 publications (involving 2,413 POAG patients and 1,904 controls) were included and some significant association between OPA1 rs166850 C/T (T vs. C: OR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.06-1.45, P = 0.01, I2 = 39.0%; CT vs. CC: OR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.05-1.79, P = 0.02, I2 = 41.6%; CT + TT vs. CC: 1.37, 95%CI = 1.06-1.77, P = 0.02, I2 = 41.6%), rs10451941T/C (TC + CC vs. TT: OR = 1.79, 95%CI = 1.41-2.28, P < 0.01, I2 = 71.9%) polymorphisms and POAG susceptibility. In addition, further significant associations were also observed in the stratified analysis, especially in normal tension glaucoma groups and Caucasian descendants.

CONCLUSION: The observed evidences suggest that OPA1 polymorphisms may be associate with POAG susceptibility significantly.

PMID:37872653 | DOI:10.1177/11206721231208244

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Predictors of cervical tumour size for outpatients with cervical cancer at the University of Gondar referral hospital: a retrospective study design

Eur J Med Res. 2023 Oct 24;28(1):453. doi: 10.1186/s40001-023-01296-z.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is one of the most serious threats to women’s lives. Modelling the change in tumour size over time for outpatients with cervical cancer was the study’s main goal.

METHODS: A hospital conducted a retrospective cohort study with outpatients who had cervical cancer. The information about the tumour size was taken from the patient’s chart and all patient data records between May 20, 2017, and May 20, 2021. The data cover 322 cervical cancer outpatients’ basic demographic and medical information. When analysing longitudinal data, the linear mixed effect model and the connection between tumour sizes in outpatients were taken into consideration. A linear mixed model, a random intercept model, and a slope model were used to fit the data.

RESULT: A sample of 322 cervical cancer outpatients was examined, and 148 (or 46% of the outpatients) tested positive for HIV. The linear mixed model with a first-order autoregressive covariance structure revealed that a change in time of one month led to a 0.009 cm2 reduction in tumour size. For every kilogramme more in weight, the tumour size change in cervical cancer patients decreased considerably by 0.0098 cm2. The tumour size change in the cervical cancer patient who was HIV-positive was 0.4360 cm squared greater than that in the HIV-negative outpatients.

CONCLUSION: As a consequence, there was a significant association between the longitudinal change in tumour size and the predictor variables visit time, therapy, patient weight, cancer stage, HIV, oral contraceptive use, history of abortion, and smoking status.

PMID:37872641 | DOI:10.1186/s40001-023-01296-z

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Concentration levels of selected hormones in judokas and the extent of their changes during a special performance test at different ambient temperatures

BMC Sports Sci Med Rehabil. 2023 Oct 23;15(1):140. doi: 10.1186/s13102-023-00751-y.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There is little scientific literature available on the diversity of physiological responses of judokas to anaerobic interval exercises in warm environments. Understanding the dynamics of changes in the concentration of selected hormones during a special endurance test at different ambient temperatures may have significant practical value, as it provides an opportunity for optimal programming and monitoring of the training process. So, the main aim of the research was to survey interval anaerobic exercises in different ambient temperatures on Concentration levels of selected hormones in judokas.

METHODS: 15 judokas athletes (age: 20.65 ± 2.03 years; body height: 178.00 ± 6.31 cm; body mass: 76.26 ± 12.57 kg; training experience: 12.1 ± 1.57 years) volunteered for the study. The judokas performed five sequences (each lasting 7.20 min) of pulsatile exercises on a cycle ergometer and hand ergometer in a thermoclimatic chamber at temperatures of 21 ± 0.5 °C and 31 ± 0.5 °C. The exercises were different from typical interval exercises, with varying times, upper and lower limb loads, and were followed by a 15-minute break after each sequence. Total duration of the experiment, including the five sequences of pulsating exercise and four 15-minute rest breaks between each exercise sequence, amounted to 96 min and 20 s. The workload was increased by 20 W for the lower limb tests and 12 W for the upper limb tests every 2 min. Biochemical measurements of testosterone (T), cortisol (C), growth hormone (HGH), adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), adrenaline (E), noradrenaline (NE), and β-endorphin (β-end)were performed using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method on blood samples taken before and after five series of pulsatile exercises, at 1, 24, and 48 h.

RESULTS: Pulsatile exercise at ambient temperatures of 21 and 31 °C resulted in a decrease in body weight of the studied athletes (p < 0.05) and significantly reduced body volume and plasma volume after training (p < 0.05). The concentration of HGH, testosterone, cortisol and NE showed a statistically significant difference after the end of the series of pulsating exercises at both temperatures (p < 0.05) and did not significantly affect the concentration of ACTH, FSH and adrenaline concentration.

CONCLUSIONS: An increase in the concentration of growth hormone, cortisol and NE was observed after doing the work at both 21 and 31 °C ambient temperature. Physical exertion in both ambient temperatures contributed to a statistically significant decrease in testosterone concentration. Based on the obtained research results, it can be concluded that physical activity in various thermal conditions of the external environment activates the hormonal response to varying degrees, with the direction of changes depending on the external thermal factor.

PMID:37872638 | DOI:10.1186/s13102-023-00751-y

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Trends and determinants of anemia in children 6-59 months and women of reproductive age in Chad from 2016 to 2021

BMC Nutr. 2023 Oct 23;9(1):117. doi: 10.1186/s40795-023-00777-y.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Hemoglobin assessments in children and women have been conducted annually in Chad since 2016 through the Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions (SMART) cross-sectional surveys. This analysis aims to characterize national and sub-national trends in anemia among children under five and women of reproductive age from 2016 to 2021 and to compare risk factors for anemia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS: Hemoglobin concentrations were measured in approximately half of the 12,000 to 15,000 included households each year, except for 2020 when hemoglobin tests were omitted. For children 6 to 59 months of age, anemia was defined as hemoglobin less than 11.0 g/dL. Anemia was defined as hemoglobin less than 11.0 g/dL and 12.0 g/dL for pregnant women and non-pregnant women, respectively. Trends were stratified by agroecological zone, and tests of proportions were used to assess statistical significance. Simple and multivariate logistic regression models were conducted for 2019 and 2021 to identify risk factors for anemia.

RESULTS: Reductions in anemia over the 6-year period were significant among women (47.6-30.8%, p = 0.000) and children (68.6-59.6%, p = 0.000). The Sudanian zone had consistently higher rates, particularly in children, compared to the Sahelian and Saharan zones. Significant declines in women’s anemia were observed in all zones from 2019 to 2021, but this global decline was not observed among children, where rates in the Saharan zone significantly increased. In 2019, only minimum dietary diversity significantly reduced the odds of anemia in children (AOR: 0.65, 95%CI: 0.46-0.92), whereas in 2021, improvements in all diet indicators were associated with lower odds of anemia. Improved household socio-economic factors, including head of household literacy, were associated with lower odds of anemia in children (2019 AOR: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.67, 0.88) and women (2019 AOR: 0.75, 95%CI: 0.65, 0.87; 2021 AOR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.70, 0.93).

CONCLUSIONS: Anemia declined significantly in Chad among women of reproductive age and children from 2016 to 2021, but the national prevalence of 60% among children remains unacceptably high. Sub-national differences in anemia rates underline the need to identify and address regional causes of anemia while strengthening national level programs.

PMID:37872637 | DOI:10.1186/s40795-023-00777-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Healthcare utilization among informal caregivers of older adults in the Ashanti region of Ghana: a study based on the health belief model

Arch Public Health. 2023 Oct 23;81(1):187. doi: 10.1186/s13690-023-01200-5.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Existing global evidence suggests that informal caregivers prioritize the health (care) of their care recipients (older adults) over their own health (care) resulting in sub-optimal health outcomes among this population group. However, data on what factors are associated with healthcare utilization among informal caregivers of older adults are not known in a sub-Saharan African context. Guided by the Health Belief Model (HBM), the principal objective of this study was to examine the association between the dimensions of the HBM and healthcare utilization among informal caregivers of older adults in the Ashanti Region of Ghana.

METHODS: Data were extracted from a large cross-sectional study of informal caregiving, health, and healthcare survey among caregivers of older adults aged 50 years or above (N = 1,853; mean age of caregivers = 39.15 years; and mean age of care recipients = 75.08 years) in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between the dimensions of the HBM and healthcare utilization among informal caregivers of older adults. Statistical significance of the test was set at a probability level of 0.05 or less.

RESULTS: The results showed that 72.9% (n = 1351) of the participants were females, 56.7% (n = 1051) were urban informal caregivers and 28.6% (n = 530) had no formal education. The results further showed that 49.4% (n = 916) of the participants utilized healthcare for their health problems at least once in the past year before the survey. The final analysis showed a positive and statistically significant association between perceived susceptibility to a health problem (β = 0.054, IRR = 1.056, 95% CI = [1.041-1.071]), cues to action (β = 0.076, IRR = 1.079, 95% CI = [1.044-1.114]), self-efficacy (β = 0.042, IRR = 1.043, 95% CI = [1.013-1.074]) and healthcare utilization among informal caregivers of older adults. The study further revealed a negative and statistically significant association between perceived severity of a health problem and healthcare utilization (β= – 0.040, IRR = 0.961, 95% CI= [0.947-0.975]) among informal caregivers of older adults. The results again showed that non-enrollment in a health insurance scheme (β= – 0.174, IRR = 0.841, 95% CI= [0.774-0.913]) and being unemployed (β= – 0.088, IRR = 0.916, 95% CI= [0.850-0.986]) were statistically significantly associated with a lower log count of healthcare utilization among informal caregivers of older adults.

CONCLUSION: The findings of this study to a large extent support the dimensions of the HBM in explaining healthcare utilization among informal caregivers of older adults in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. Although all the dimensions of the HBM were significantly associated with healthcare utilization in Model 1, perceived barriers to care-seeking and perceived benefits of care-seeking were no longer statistically significant after controlling for demographic, socio-economic and health-related variables in the final model. The findings further suggest that the dimensions of the HBM as well as demographic, socio-economic and health-related factors contribute to unequal healthcare utilization among informal caregivers of older adults in the Ashanti Region of Ghana.

PMID:37872631 | DOI:10.1186/s13690-023-01200-5

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Impact of the workforce allocation on the technical performance of mental health services: the collective case of Helsinki-Uusimaa (Finland)

Health Res Policy Syst. 2023 Oct 23;21(1):108. doi: 10.1186/s12961-023-01061-y.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Long-term mental health (MH) policies in Finland aimed at investing in community care and promoting reforms have led to a reduction in the number of psychiatric hospital beds. However, most resources are still allocated to hospital and community residential services due to various social, economic and political factors. Despite previous research focussing on the number and cost of these services, no study has evaluated the emerging patterns of use, their technical performance and the relationship with the workforce structure.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to observe the patterns of use and their technical performance (efficiency) of the main types of care of MH services in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region (Finland), and to analyse the potential relationship between technical performance and the corresponding workforce structure.

METHODS: The sample included acute hospital residential care, non-hospital residential care and outpatient care services. The analysis was conducted using regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy inference and data envelopment analysis.

RESULTS: The analysis showed a statistically significant linear relationship between the number of service users and the length of stay, number of beds in non-hospital residential care and number of contacts in outpatient care services. The three service types displayed a similar pattern of technical performance, with high relative technical efficiency on average and a low probability of being efficient. The most efficient acute hospital and outpatient care services integrated multidisciplinary teams, while psychiatrists and nurses characterized non-hospital residential care.

CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated that the number of resources and utilization variables were linearly related to the number of users and that the relative technical efficiency of the services was similar across all types. This suggests homogenous MH management with small variations based on workforce allocation. Therefore, the distribution of workforce capacity should be considered in the development of effective policies and interventions in the southern Finnish MH system.

PMID:37872626 | DOI:10.1186/s12961-023-01061-y

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Interruption time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average model: evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemic trend of gonorrhea in China

BMC Public Health. 2023 Oct 23;23(1):2073. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16953-5.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis is a growing method for assessing intervention impacts on diseases. However, it remains unstudied how the COVID-19 outbreak impacts gonorrhea. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on gonorrhea and predict gonorrhea epidemics using the ITS-autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

METHODS: The number of gonorrhea cases reported in China from January 2005 to September 2022 was collected. Statistical descriptions were applied to indicate the overall epidemiological characteristics of the data, and then the ITS-ARIMA was established. Additionally, we compared the forecasting abilities of ITS-ARIMA with Bayesian structural time series (BSTS), and discussed the model selection process, transfer function, check model fitting, and interpretation of results.

RESULT: During 2005-2022, the total cases of gonorrhea were 2,165,048, with an annual average incidence rate of 8.99 per 100,000 people. The highest incidence rate was 14.2 per 100,000 people in 2005 and the lowest was 6.9 per 100,000 people in 2012. The optimal model was ARIMA (0,1, (1,3)) (0,1,1)12 (Akaike’s information criterion = 3293.93). When predicting the gonorrhea incidence, the mean absolute percentage error under the ARIMA (16.45%) was smaller than that under the BSTS (22.48%). The study found a 62.4% reduction in gonorrhea during the first-level response, a 46.47% reduction during the second-level response, and an increase of 3.6% during the third-level response. The final model estimated a step change of – 2171 (95% confidence interval [CI] – 3698 to – 644) cases and an impulse change of – 1359 (95% CI – 2381 to – 338) cases. Using the ITS-ARIMA to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on gonorrhea, the gonorrhea incidence showed a temporary decline before rebounding to pre-COVID-19 levels in China.

CONCLUSION: ITS analysis is a valuable tool for gauging intervention effectiveness, providing flexibility in modelling various impacts. The ITS-ARIMA model can adeptly explain potential trends, autocorrelation, and seasonality. Gonorrhea, marked by periodicity and seasonality, exhibited a downward trend under the influence of COVID-19 intervention. The ITS-ARIMA outperformed the BSTS, offering superior predictive capabilities for the gonorrhea incidence trend in China.

PMID:37872621 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-16953-5